Angola has secured 25% of Chinese loans to Africa since 2000

Between 2000 and 2023, Africa received $182 billion in Chinese loans, primarily for energy and transportation development.

Angola, with 25%, was the largest recipient; Ethiopia, Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya followed.

While 49 countries benefited, experts warn of increasing debt risks.

Source:

Boston University Global Development Policy Center

Period:

2000-2023
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11 African nations constituted 69% of the continent's total external debt stock as of H1 2024
  • Just 11 countries hold 69% of Africa’s total external debt.
  • South Africa (14%) carries the highest share.
  • Egypt (13%) and Nigeria (8%) are among the top three.
  • Countries from Northern and Southern regions hold over 30% of Africa’s external debt.
  • Many of these nations rely on debt to drive development, but without efficient utilisation, rising debt could become a major drag on future progress.

The number of debtors backed by movable assets owing financial institutions in Nigeria declined significantly from 2017 to 2018.
  • The number of collateral-backed debtors fell by almost 50% from 2017 to 2018
  • The number of debtors began increasing consistently from 2019 to 2021
  • The highest post-2018 debt level was recorded in 2023, reaching 7,390, which is close to pre-2018 figures.
  • The decline in 2018 could indicate cautious borrowing or stricter regulations, while the rise afterward suggests a possible easing of credit access.

Nigeria's external debt has gradually grown to nearly half of the country's total public debt as of H1 2024
  • External debt has nearly doubled as in 2017, it stood at 26.64%, but by 2024, it had risen to 46.96%.
  • Domestic debt has dropped from 73.36% in 2017 to 53.04% in 2024, showing a decline.
  • Nigeria’s increasing reliance on external loans suggests a strategic shift in public debt financing.
  • Unlike other years, domestic debt share slightly increased in 2023, rising to 60.74%, before external debt rebounded in 2024.
  • A rising share of external debt means higher exposure to foreign exchange risks and global market conditions.
  • If the trend continues, Nigeria’s external and domestic debt may soon be equal, reducing the traditional dominance of domestic borrowing.

Ethiopia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio projected to double its domestic debt-to-GDP ratio in 2025
  • External debt is set to surpass domestic debt by 2025, reaching a peak of 28.3% of GDP, which indicates a major shift in Ethiopia’s debt strategy.
  • Ethiopia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio dropped consistently from 26.8% in 2020 to 13.7% in 2024, but a sharp increase is projected for 2025.
  • Domestic debt peaked at 27.1% in 2021 before declining steadily to 18.7% in 2024, with a further decline expected in 2025 (14.5%).
  • The sharp rise in external debt in 2025 suggests a major policy shift, possibly driven by the need for foreign capital or declining domestic financing options.
  • The decline in domestic debt may indicate reduced government borrowing from local sources, which could have implications for local financial markets and inflation.
  • Foreign debt reliance increases exposure to currency risks and external economic conditions, which could affect Ethiopia’s financial stability in the long run.

More than half of the Federal Government of Nigeria’s domestic debt services are services on FGN bonds
  • FGN Bonds dominate Nigeria’s domestic debt service payments, rising from 66.6% in 2017 to 87.9% in 2024. This reflects a growing reliance on long-term debt financing.
  • Treasury Bills have seen a sharp decline in their share of domestic debt service, dropping from 30.1% in 2017 to just 6.4% in 2024. This suggests a shift away from short-term debt instruments.
  • Treasury Bonds, which peaked at 14.9% in 2022, also declined to just 5.6% in 2024.
  • By 2021, over 80% of domestic debt service payments were already allocated to FGN Bonds, showing a consistent pattern of prioritisation. The trend has only intensified in subsequent years.
  • The rising dominance of FGN Bonds means Nigeria is locking itself into long-term repayment obligations, potentially increasing the fiscal burden in the future.
  • This trend underscores the need for careful debt management policies to prevent a future where long-term commitments become a burden rather than a stabilising factor. 🚨

Since 2010, the Federal Government of Nigeria has spent N45.57 trillion on servicing its debt.
  • Debt servicing costs have grown significantly over the years, from ₦400 billion in 2010 to an estimated ₦11.8 trillion in 2024 — a nearly 30-fold increase in just 15 years.
  • Between 2010 and 2024, Nigeria has spent ₦45.57 trillion on servicing its debt, demonstrating the enormity of its financial obligations.
  • The year 2024 stands out as the most expensive year yet, with ₦11.8 trillion spent on debt servicing — a jump of over 37% compared to 2023's ₦8.6 trillion.
  • While debt service expenditures grew gradually in the early 2010s, the most rapid increases occurred after 2019, with spending surging from ₦2.4 trillion in 2019 to ₦8.6 trillion in 2023.
  • From 2019 to 2024, debt servicing costs rose by almost 392%, showcasing how Nigeria’s debt burden has amplified in a short period.
  • This steep rise in debt servicing diverts resources from critical areas such as infrastructure, health, and education, hindering overall development.

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