Nigeria’s public debt has soared since 2010, with domestic debt up 2,020% and external debt up 1,000% by mid 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Nigeria’s domestic debt jumped from ₦3.8 trillion in 2010 to ₦80.55 trillion by mid-2025.
  • Foreign debts increased from $4.27 billion in 2010 to $46.98 billion in 2025, reflecting growing reliance on external financing.
  • Debt accumulation surged notably after 2020, coinciding with pandemic spending, naira depreciation, and higher fiscal deficits.
  • The widening gap between revenue and debt service raises questions about Nigeria’s long-term debt sustainability.

Nigeria’s debt journey over the past 15 years paints a clear picture of persistent fiscal strain. From just ₦3.8 trillion in 2010, domestic borrowing has ballooned to over ₦80 trillion, fueled by budget deficits, falling oil revenues, and rising governance costs. External debt has also expanded steadily, from $4.27 billion to nearly $47 billion as Nigeria sought foreign funding to stabilise its economy. This consistent upward trend underscores a growing dependence on debt to finance national expenditure, making debt management and revenue growth more critical than ever.

Source:

Debt Management Office (DMO)

Period:

June 2010 - June 2025
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Lagos, Rivers, and four other states account for 52% of all Nigerian states' domestic debt and 40% of their external debt
  • Lagos dominates Nigeria’s subnational debt profile, accounting for 26.1% of domestic debt and 21.8% of external debt.
  • Six states account for 52% of domestic debt.
  • The same group contributes 40% of the external debt
  • Rivers ranks second in domestic debt (9.5%) but has a significantly lower external debt (3.8%).
  • Kaduna emerges as a major external borrower (13.7%) despite not appearing among the top domestic debt states.
Despite allocating more funds than in 2020, Nigeria's defence budget share falls back to 9% in 2026, matching the 2020 low
  • Nominal spending surged, but inflation and naira depreciation eroded real gains. From ₦921 billion in 2012 to ₦6.57 trillion in 2025, the absolute figure may seem dramatic, but Nigeria's security challenges intensified over the same period.
  • Defence commanded over 21% of the budget in 2013. From 2024 to 2026, that figure has fallen below 14%, with 2026 hitting a historic low of 9.3%.
  • Boko Haram, banditry, and separatist tensions peaked in 2020, resulting in a cut that saw defence's share fall to just 9.2%, the lowest on record at that point.
  • The jump to ₦6.57trn (13.2%) in 2025 marks the sharpest year-on-year absolute increase in the dataset. But 2026 reversed this again, with the rate dropping to 9.3%.
Nigeria recorded a 76% drop in HIV cases over five years
  • The 2019 number revealed the truth — years of underdiagnosis were corrected in a single year when PEPFAR restructured testing entirely.
  • The 76% decline from 2019 to 2024 is one of the most significant HIV reductions in Africa in a single decade.
  • One year of disruption in 2020 erased an entire year of progress, creating a backlog that took until 2022 to clear.
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Nigeria's insurance sector crossed ₦1.98tn in H1 2025 as every segment grew by at least 25%
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  • Miscellaneous, the smallest segment, posted the biggest growth at 86.7%, suggesting new and unconventional insurance products are gaining serious traction.
  • Aviation & Marine nearly doubled, with 79.9% growth in a sector tied to trade and logistics, reflecting Nigeria's expanding import/export activity and the rising cost of cargo and aircraft risk coverage.
  • Motor (52.5%), Fire (53.3%), and General Accident (49.6%) grew by roughly half, indicating broad-based sector expansion rather than isolated pockets of growth.
Nigeria’s crude oil export value surges over 400% from 2020 to a record ₦55.3tn in 2024
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  • 2015 and 2016 were the hardest years, with export values crashing as low as ₦6.8 trillion in 2015, reflecting the brutal impact of the global oil price collapse on Nigeria's most critical export.
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  • Local companies recorded their strongest share in 2021 at 65%, marking the widest gap between local and foreign contributors.
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