The cost of borrowing in Africa is increasing, with 27.5% of government revenue going towards debt interest

Key takeaways:

  • Africa now spends 27.5% of revenue on interest payments, nearly 4 times higher than in 2008.
  • The debt burden is rising faster than economic growth as interest payments as a percentage of GDP grew from 5.4% in 2008 to 8.2% in 2024, showing increasing financial strain.
  • Effective interest rates have more than tripled from 1.4% in 2008 to 5.0% in 2024, making debt less affordable.
  • Between 2008 and 2019, the ratio of interest to revenue rose by 12.2 percentage points, and in five years (2019–2024), it surged by another 8.5 percentage points.
  • As borrowing costs rise, the risk of defaults and fiscal crises in African economies grows, making financial stability a concern.
  • More money spent on debt means less for roads, hospitals, and schools, slowing down long-term economic progress.

The cost of borrowing in Africa has reached alarming levels, with 27.5% of government revenue now going towards interest payments, a sharp rise from 6.8% in 2008. This means that for every $1 a government earns, nearly 28 cents are spent on servicing debt alone, leaving little room for infrastructure, healthcare, or education investments. At the same time, the interest burden as a percentage of GDP has also increased, jumping from 5.4% in 2008 to 8.2% in 2024. Governments are now paying more for the money they borrow, putting fiscal sustainability at risk.

Source:

Afreximbank

Period:

2008, 2019, 2024
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Three African countries are projected to have debt exceeding their GDP in 2026
  • Sudan is projected to have Africa’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio in 2026, at 169.1%.
  • Only three African countries are projected to owe more than the size of their economies in 2026.
  • Senegal and Mozambique join Sudan among countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 100%.
  • Africa’s average government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 60.7% in 2026.
  • Nigeria’s projected debt-to-GDP ratio of 32.3% is far below the African average.

Two-thirds of IDA’s commitments in one year went to Africa, led by Nigeria’s $3.1bn
  • Africa received 66% of IDA’s FY2025 commitments.
  • Africa’s total IDA allocation was $22.4 billion out of $33.8 billion.
  • Nigeria was the largest borrower from the DA globally, with $3.1 billion in loans.
  • Bangladesh ranked second with $3 billion.
  • Six of the top ten borrowers were African countries.
  • Nigeria accounted for 9.3% of total FY2025 IDA commitments.

Oyo has reduced external debt by 36% and domestic debt by 22% under Makinde
  • Oyo reduced external and domestic debt by the end of 2025.
  • External debt fell faster than domestic debt.
  • External debt declined more consistently over the period.
  • Oyo’s local debt peaked around 2022–2023 before falling back.
  • The state appears to have prioritised reducing FX exposure.

Africa has been the world's biggest World Bank borrower since 2017, owing $152 billion as of 2024
  • Africa has been the world's biggest World Bank borrower since 2017, and the gap is widening.
  • Three crises drove it: an infrastructure gap, the 2014 commodity crash, and COVID-19.
  • The World Bank leaned in deliberately — 66% of all IDA funds went to Africa in 2025 alone.
  • It's not really "Africa's debt" — it's Nigeria's, Kenya's, Ethiopia's, Egypt's, Tanzania's, and Morocco's.
  • Every other region is slowing down, but Africa's curve is still climbing.

Under Sanwo-Olu, Lagos cut its external debt and more than doubled its domestic debt
  • Lagos cut external debt, but increased domestic debt.
  • The drop in external debt was meaningful, but the rise in domestic debt was much larger.
  • Stronger IGR gave Lagos more room to borrow and repay.
  • The state chose local funding over heavier dollar exposure.

Lagos's external debt has reduced by nearly three times more than the other six states combined
  • Lagos's debt reduction is larger than the other six combined.
  • Oyo posted the fastest reduction rate.
  • The biggest percentage cut did not equal the biggest dollar cut.
  • Debt reduction was concentrated, not broad-based.
  • Higher state revenues likely created room for repayments.
  • Lagos had the strongest fiscal capacity among the states shown.
  • Smaller debt stocks made percentage declines easier for some states.

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