Nigeria and Egypt are the only African countries projected to be in the top 15 economies by the year 2075

Per projections made by Goldman Sachs, China should lead the global economy in terms of GDP by the year 2075, closely followed by India and the US. Nigeria and Egypt are the only African countries expected to be in the top 15 by that time.

Source:

Goldman Sachs

Period:

2075
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Administrative services surged by 21%, recording the most significant growth in Nigeria's 2024 rebased economy
  • Administrative & support services showed the highest percentage increase at 21.07%.
  • Agriculture is the largest sector by GDP value, at ₦59.31 trillion.
  • Trade is the second largest sector by GDP value, at ₦37.81 trillion.
  • Real estate is the third largest sector by GDP value, at ₦28.96 trillion.
  • Other services experienced negative growth, decreasing by -1.17%.
  • Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply recorded the lowest positive growth at 0.56%.

Nigeria’s foreign trade
  • Total Trade Volume in Q1 2025 stood at ₦36.02 trillion, with exports totalling ₦20.6 trillion and imports at ₦15.4 trillion, resulting in a surplus of ₦5.17 trillion.
  • Crude oil dominates Nigeria’s export trade, accounting for the largest share of export revenue. -
  • Other petroleum oil products are also a major export item, reflecting the significance of both raw and refined oil-based commodities in Nigeria’s trade portfolio. -
  • On the import side, manufactured goods dominate, showing Nigeria’s continued reliance on foreign machinery, technology, and consumer goods.
  • While Nigeria exports mostly raw and oil-based products, it imports refined, processed, or industrial goods, indicating a structural trade gap and limited local industrial capacity. -
  • Agricultural and raw material goods feature on both sides of trade, but their value is significantly less than petroleum-related trade.

Total FAAC revenue shared in Nigeria consistently grew year-on-year from February to June 2025, with increases ranging from 39% to 49%
  • Nigeria’s FAAC revenue increased 49% YoY in March 2025 (₦1.68T vs ₦1.12T in March 2024).
  • February 2025 saw a 48% increase YoY (₦1.70T vs ₦1.15T in February 2024).
  • April 2025 revenue rose by 41% YoY, moving from ₦1.12T in April 2024 to ₦1.58T.
  • January 2025 showed no YoY change, recording ₦1.42T in both 2024 and 2025.
  • The consistent growth in H1 2025 FAAC revenues signals improved government revenue mobilisation, better oil/non-oil collections, and higher capacity for states to meet obligations.

Nigeria experienced substantial year-on-year declines in exchange rate gain revenue from April to June 2025, with decreases of 90%, 81%, and 85% respectively
  • Nigeria’s exchange rate gain revenue dropped by 73.2% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024.
  • In April 2025, exchange rate gain fell by 90% year-on-year from ₦285.5B to ₦28.7B.
  • May saw an 81% drop, with revenue declining from ₦438.9B in 2024 to ₦81.4B in 2025.
  • January 2025 was the only month with a stable figure, matching January 2024’s ₦402.7B.
  • Exchange rate gain revenue for February and March 2025 was unavailable, likely worsening the total.
  • The first half of 2025 generated only ₦589.4B in FX gains, compared to ₦2.2T in the same period in 2024.

The top three indebted states (Lagos, Kaduna, and Edo) collectively account for over $2.18B, nearly half of the total $4.80B states' external debt
  • Lagos alone accounts for nearly 25% of all Nigerian states’ external debt, totalling $1.17 billion.
  • The combined debt of Lagos, Kaduna, and Edo is larger than the sum of the debts of the bottom 30 states.
  • States like Yobe, Abuja, and Jigawa each owe less than $25 million externally, indicating minimal foreign exposure.
  • Cross River, Rivers, and Ogun round out the top six debtors, each with external debts around [$190–210] million.
  • Just eleven states owe over $100 million each, while the majority owes less than that threshold.
  • Despite 36 subnational governments, the federal government’s $40.98 billion external debt is over 8x that of all states combined.

Jigawa has the lowest domestic debt among Nigerian states at ₦1.06B, a stark contrast to Lagos's (the highest) ₦874.04B debt
  • Lagos alone holds more domestic debt than the bottom 25 states combined.
  • Jigawa’s domestic debt of ₦1.06 billion is less than 0.15% of Lagos’s debt, showing the widest disparity.
  • The 10 highest-indebted states account for nearly 70% of the total domestic debts across Nigerian states.
  • The Federal Capital Territory (FCT) carries more debt than 17 other states.

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