Nigeria’s GDP for 2024 is up by 3.2% so far, with key sectors driving the growth. In the first nine months of 2024, Finance and Insurance took the lead with a 30.3% increase, followed by Water Supply & Waste Management at 8.3%, and Mining and Quarrying with 5.7% growth.
These are the sectors leading Nigeria’s real GDP growth.
The Nigerian economy shows promise as the IMF projects an increase in the country's GDP growth, rising to 3.2% in 2025. This comes when projections show stagnant global growth at 3.2%, while sub-Saharan Africa outpaces other regions with an anticipated rise to 4.2% by 2025.
After the fuel subsidy was removed, the cost of bus fares for intracity journeys rose by 98% between May 2023 and June 2023. In just 18 months, fares increased by 39% significantly affecting commuters.
States' share of Nigeria's public debt has dropped from 20.5% in 2019 to 8.5% in 2024, while the federal government’s debt has risen to over 91% of the total, in dollar terms.
The FG's debt grew from $66.7 billion to $83.6 billion in this period, while the states' debt dropped from $17.2 billion in 2019 to $7.8 billion, marking a shift in borrowing dynamics at federal and state levels.
Notably, states and FCT debt decreased in dollar terms but increased in naira terms, while FG debt rose in both dollar and naira terms over the same period.
Nigeria’s public debt decreased in dollar terms between June 2023 and June 2024. However, when converted to naira, it jumped to ₦134.3 trillion, largely due to currency devaluation. This sharp increase in debt could lead to tighter budgets, potentially affecting public services and everyday costs for Nigerians.
Nigeria’s 13% oil derivation fund is primarily allocated to four states — Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Rivers — which collectively receive over 90% of the fund annually. This funding is crucial for developing these oil-producing states, with Delta State consistently receiving the largest share in recent years. Other states, including Abia, Anambra, Edo, Imo, Lagos, and Ondo, receive smaller portions.
The 13% derivation fund is part of Nigeria’s revenue-sharing formula aimed at compensating oil-producing states for oil extraction's environmental and infrastructural impacts.
Note: Small allocations to Soku and Gbetiokun are also included in "others".
Nigeria's tax-to-GDP ratio remains significantly lower than regional averages, showing a gap in revenue mobilisation. While OECD countries reached a tax-to-GDP ratio of 34.2% in 2021, and even the African regional average stood at 18.8%, Nigeria's tax revenue represented only 6.7% of its GDP. This disparity emphasises the need for strategic tax policy reforms to strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal capacity.
Nigeria's tax revenue structure relies heavily on corporate income tax, which constitutes 35% of the total revenue, surpassing personal income tax and social security contributions. In contrast, the rest of Africa and OECD countries demonstrate a more balanced tax composition, with significant shares from personal income tax, VAT, and other tax categories.
This heavy reliance on corporate income tax highlights the unique fiscal structure in Nigeria, where other forms of tax contributions are less prominent.
Nigeria's GDP saw its steepest drop in 1999, marking the country's transition to civilian rule with Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae running for president.
Over the years, Nigeria's economy has fluctuated, peaking in 2014. Despite stable population growth, recent economic dips underscore ongoing challenges.
From 1961 to 2022, Nigeria, Egypt, and Madagascar led Africa in rice production, supporting local economies and food security.
Nigeria peaked in 2017 with over 10 million tonnes, while Egypt and Madagascar also recorded strong years.
Since 2014, Nigeria has held the title of Africa's largest rice producer.
