Africa's total external debt service is projected to decrease by over $39 billion between 2024 and 2029

Africa’s external debt service burden peaked at an estimated $102.6 billion in 2024, but the outlook suggests a sharp decline over the next five years. Between 2024 and 2029, the total amount that African countries are expected to spend annually servicing their external debts will fall by more than $39 billion (according to projections of the International Debt Statistics), signalling a shift in the continent’s debt dynamics. After more than a decade of steady growth in debt servicing costs, this marks a potential turning point.

One of the most dramatic changes in the chart is the YoY change in 2025, which shows a steep -13.5% drop, the sharpest single-year decrease over 20 years. While the figures from 2025 to 2029 are forecasts, they reflect changing debt maturity schedules, slowing new borrowing, or possibly even early repayments. For countries that have faced pressure on public finances, a reduced debt service burden could provide much-needed fiscal space for investment in social infrastructure and economic recovery efforts.

The trend also reflects how external debt obligations evolved. From $18.5 billion in 2009, payments steadily climbed to nearly $69 billion by 2021, and remained high through 2022. The spike to $102.6 billion in 2024 represents an extraordinary jump, driven by past borrowing and rising repayment schedules.

Source:

World Bank - IDS

Period:

2009-2029
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Three African countries have a debt-to-GDP ratio above 100%, with Sudan at 238.8%
  • Sudan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 238.8% is the highest in Africa and over twice the size of its economy.
  • Three African countries—Sudan, Cabo Verde, and Zambia—have debt burdens exceeding 100% of their GDP.
  • Egypt, Mozambique, and the Congo Republic follow closely with ratios above 88% each, despite efforts at economic reform.
  • Ghana and Sierra Leone are also in the top 10, showing that West Africa isn’t exempt from debt pressure.
  • Nigeria, while not in the top 10, has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 41.3% and ranks 43rd in Africa.
  • A high debt-to-GDP ratio often limits a country’s ability to invest in growth-driving sectors, even if the economy is growing nominally.
DR Congo has the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in Africa (11.1%), significantly below the 63.2% average
  • DR Congo has the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in Africa, at just 11.1%.
  • Africa’s average debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 63.2%, meaning most countries on the bottom 10 list are performing better than the continental average.
  • Nigeria, despite its size and challenges, still maintains a relatively moderate debt load of 41.3%.
  • Botswana’s debt ratio of 18.1% places it among Africa’s most fiscally conservative economies.
  • Ethiopia and Guinea, both undergoing major economic transitions, still keep debt levels below 32%.
  • The presence of both low-income and resource-rich countries on the list shows that low debt isn’t exclusive to one economic model.
Nigeria’s GDP per capita dropped $710 below Sub-Saharan Africa’s average in 2024, its widest gap in 25 years
  • Nigeria’s GDP per capita stayed above the Sub-Saharan African average from 2002 to 2023.
  • In 2014, Nigeria peaked at $3,088.7, far ahead of the region’s $1,886.5.
  • The post-2014 oil crash triggered a prolonged economic slide for Nigeria.
  • By 2023, Nigeria ($1,596.6) and Sub-Saharan Africa ($1,580.8) were nearly identical.
  • In 2024, Nigeria fell sharply to $806.9, $710 below the regional average of $1,516.4, its widest gap in over two decades.
Ghana’s GDP per capita has grown nearly tenfold since 2000, despite years of economic volatility
  • Between 2000 and 2008, Ghana’s GDP per capita rose from $253.7 to $1,182.7, more than quadrupling in just nine years.
  • It peaked in 2013 at $2,294.8 but declined sharply after 2014.
  • After a dip in 2022, it rebounded to $2,405.8 in 2024, nearly 10 times higher than the figure in 2000.
  • The declines seen in 2009, 2015, and 2022 mirror global and local crises, including the 2008 financial crash, commodity shocks, and post-COVID disruptions.
Lagos State's year-end outstanding foreign debt peaked in 2017, before gradually easing to $1.17 billion as of 2024
  • From just $190 million in 2006, Lagos State's year-end external debt rose significantly to over $1.1 billion by 2024, a more than 500% increase over 19 years.
  • The highest year-end debt was recorded in 2017 at $1.47 billion, with a gradual decline afterwards, except for a brief rise again in 2022–2023.
  • By 2024, Lagos State's external debt dipped slightly to $1.17 billion, suggesting some debt service or currency gain effects.
  • If Lagos State paid off or borrowed funds in a given year, only the remaining unpaid amount by year-end is shown in the data.
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