Lagos's external debt has reduced by nearly three times more than the other six states combined

Key takeaways:

  • Lagos's debt reduction is larger than the other six combined.
  • Oyo posted the fastest reduction rate.
  • The biggest percentage cut did not equal the biggest dollar cut.
  • Debt reduction was concentrated, not broad-based.
  • Higher state revenues likely created room for repayments.
  • Lagos had the strongest fiscal capacity among the states shown.
  • Smaller debt stocks made percentage declines easier for some states.

Only 7 of the 36 Nigerian states and the FCT reduced their external debt between June 2023 and December 2025. Lagos alone cut about $247.2 million, roughly 2.7 times the combined reduction of the other six states shown.

States can only meaningfully reduce foreign debt when cash flows improve enough to absorb repayments without choking local spending. Across Nigeria, FAAC disbursements expanded sharply during this period. In February 2024, total FAAC disbursement was ₦2.07 trillion, including ₦379.41 billion for states. By the October 2025 sharing round, total distributable revenue had risen to ₦2.094 trillion, with ₦689.12 billion going to states. That kind of revenue lift creates room for selective debt paydown, especially for states with stronger internal revenue bases.

Lagos stands out because it has more room than anyone else to act. The state reported ₦1.3 trillion in internally generated revenue in 2024, up 45% from 2023. That scale matters. It means Lagos could cut external obligations more aggressively while still funding a large operating and capital program. By contrast, the states with the fastest reduction rates are not necessarily those with the largest cash reductions. Oyo's 35.9% drop is the sharpest percentage move in the chart, but in dollar terms it is still far behind Lagos. That is the difference between cutting from a large base and cutting from a smaller one.

Source:

Debt Management Office

Period:

2023-2025
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Under Sanwo-Olu, Lagos cut its external debt and more than doubled its domestic debt
  • Lagos cut external debt, but increased domestic debt.
  • The drop in external debt was meaningful, but the rise in domestic debt was much larger.
  • Stronger IGR gave Lagos more room to borrow and repay.
  • The state chose local funding over heavier dollar exposure.

Northern states have accounted for 12 of the 15 fastest-growing external debts in Nigeria since June 2023
  • All but four states increased their external debt between June 2023 and December 2025.
  • Northern states account for roughly 70% of the $1.34 billion added by states nationally.
  • Katsina recorded the highest growth in both absolute terms ($150 million) and rate (+296%).
  • 12 of the 15 fastest-growing state debts are in the north.
  • Lagos, Nigeria's largest debtor at $1.17 billion outstanding, was one of only four states that reduced its debt.
  • Kaduna carries the second-heaviest debt load at $684 million, despite a relatively modest 20% growth rate.

Alex Otti’s administration reduced Abia's domestic debt by 66%, with external debt rising by 14%
  • Abia’s domestic debt dropped by 66% between 2023 and 2025.
  • The state reduced domestic debt by about ₦94 billion.
  • Debt fell from roughly ₦138 billion to about ₦48.5 billion within two and a half years.
  • About ₦72 billion of inherited debt was cleared early in the administration.
  • External debt increased by 14% (+$12.9 million) over the same period.

Under Umo Eno, Akwa Ibom’s domestic debt fell 41.5%, from ₦138.6bn to ₦48.5bn
  • Akwa Ibom’s domestic debt fell 41.5% over the period, from ₦138.6 billion to ₦48.5 billion.
  • External debt was almost stable, slipping just 0.9%.
  • The sharpest debt adjustment happened in local-currency obligations, not foreign debt.
  • The highest domestic debt level during the period was in December 2023.

Only six states and the FCT are borrowing more domestically, with the FCT leading by a 123% domestic debt growth
  • Only six states and the FCT increased domestic debt.
  • The FCT recorded the fastest domestic debt growth at 122.8%.
  • Enugu posted the second-highest increase at 70%.
  • Lagos remains the biggest borrower by value at ₦1.2 trillion.
  • Niger, Bauchi, and Kaduna saw smaller, yet notable increases.
  • Debt growth is concentrated, not broad-based across all states.

After steady growth, the FCT’s debt spiked sharply by 139% in Q4 2025
  • FCT Abuja’s domestic debt jumped from ₦79 billion to ₦189 billion in one quarter.
  • This equals a 139.1% quarter-on-quarter increase.
  • Before Q4 2025, debt growth was relatively moderate.
  • Debt fell in 2024 before recovering in 2025.
  • The 2025 recovery was gradual until the final-quarter spike.
  • Q4 2025 pushed debt to the highest level in the series.

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