Petrol prices surged by nearly 1000% in 9 years

Key Takeaways

  • In February 2016, petrol was at its lowest price of 99.80 per litre, marking the last time fuel prices remained below 100.
  • By November 2024, petrol prices soared to an all-time high of 1,214.17 per litre, reflecting the compounded effects of inflation, currency depreciation, and global oil price volatility.
  • Over the nine-year period, the average petrol price stood at 272.65 per litre.
  • Between January 2016 and December 2024, petrol prices increased by 1,079.52, a staggering 984.96% rise, emphasising the long-term upward trajectory influenced by economic challenges, subsidy removals, and fluctuating exchange rates.
  • The most volatile period recorded a month-to-month price surge of over 129.23%.

Over the past nine years, petrol prices in Nigeria have experienced a dramatic and relentless rise, climbing from 109.60 per liter in January 2016 to 1,189.12 per litre in December 2024, a staggering 984.96% increase. While the early years saw moderate fluctuations, the trend took a sharp upward trajectory in recent years, driven by economic shifts, subsidy removals, currency depreciation, and global oil price volatility.

The sharpest single-month price surge occurred in June 2023, when petrol prices skyrocketed by 129.23% compared to the previous month. This unprecedented leap marked a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s fuel pricing history, coinciding with the removal of fuel subsidies, which instantly doubled the cost of petrol and sent ripple effects across the economy.

The highest recorded price of 1,214.17 per liter came in November 2024, reflecting continued economic pressures, while the lowest price of 99.80 per litre was observed in February 2016, when subsidies still kept fuel costs relatively low. Despite these extremes, the average petrol price over the nine-year period was 272.65 per litre, showing that while drastic spikes occurred, there were also periods of relative stability.

Source:

National bureau of statistics

Period:

2016 to 2024
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In the last one year, petrol prices in Nigeria fluctuated, reaching the maximum average price (₦1,262) in March 2025, before dropping gradually
  • Petrol prices in Nigeria rose by 52% between August 2024 (₦830.5) and March 2025 (₦1,261.7).
  • The highest monthly increase was in September 2024 (+24.1%), while the sharpest drop came in April 2025 (-17.1%).
  • By July 2025, prices had eased to ₦1,025, still 23% higher than a year earlier.
  • NNPC retail outlets offered significantly lower prices than the national average, with Abuja as low as ₦880 at the March 2025 peak.
  • Dangote Refinery offered relatively competitive pricing, ranging from ₦840 to ₦899, creating an alternative supply option.

Africa’s crude oil production
  • Nigeria led with 78.9 Mtoe, accounting for over 22% of Africa’s total oil output.
  • Algeria (59.3 Mtoe) and Angola (57.4 Mtoe) followed closely; the three top producers together supplied] 56% of the continent’s oil.
  • Africa’s total oil production was 345.5 Mtoe, just 7.6% of the global total (4,542.7 Mtoe).
  • The top 5 producers accounted for over 80% of Africa’s oil.

Non-oil company income tax and two other sources accounted for over 70% of Nigeria's tax revenue in 2024
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  • NCS-Import VAT followed closely, contributing 23.63%, emphasising the significance of import-related taxes to Nigeria's revenue.
  • Traditional oil-based taxes such as Petroleum Profit Tax/Hydrocarbon Tax and CIT (Oil & Gas) jointly contributed over 26%, showing that oil remains a vital but declining pillar.
  • Newer tax streams like the Electronic Money Transfer Levy and NASENI (National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure) funding have emerged, but still make up less than 2% of total revenue.
  • Minor tax categories like Capital Gains Tax, NITDEF (National Information Technology Development Fund), and NPTFL (Nigeria Police Trust Fund) had negligible impact, each contributing less than 0.5%

Apapa Port accounted for 71.6% of Nigeria’s total trade value in Q1 2025 and 86.12% of total exports
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  • Lekki has limited export impact, despite handling ₦1.70 trillion in imports. Lekki contributed only ₦0.30 trillion (1.5%) in exports, indicating underutilization for outbound trade.
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