Nigeria's external debt has gradually grown to nearly half of the country's total public debt as of H1 2024

Key takeaways:

  • External debt has nearly doubled as in 2017, it stood at 26.64%, but by 2024, it had risen to 46.96%.
  • Domestic debt has dropped from 73.36% in 2017 to 53.04% in 2024, showing a decline.
  • Nigeria’s increasing reliance on external loans suggests a strategic shift in public debt financing.
  • Unlike other years, domestic debt share slightly increased in 2023, rising to 60.74%, before external debt rebounded in 2024.
  • A rising share of external debt means higher exposure to foreign exchange risks and global market conditions.
  • If the trend continues, Nigeria’s external and domestic debt may soon be equal, reducing the traditional dominance of domestic borrowing.

The share of external debt in the country’s total public debt has increased from 26.64% in 2017 to 46.96% in the first half of 2024. This represents a clear trend of rising external borrowing, reducing the dominance of domestic debt in the overall debt structure. External debt has nearly doubled its share within this period, while domestic debt has seen a corresponding decline.
In 2017, domestic debt accounted for over 73% of total public debt, but by 2024, it had dropped to just 53%. This shift highlights a growing reliance on foreign borrowing, which could have implications for debt servicing costs, exchange rate fluctuations, and overall economic stability.

Source:

Debt Management Office (DMO)

Period:

2017 - 2024
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Nigeria secured a record $2.8 billion loan from Chinese lenders in 2017
  • Nigeria has received $9.4 billion dollars in Chinese loans across different sectors since 2002
  • The highest loan inflow was in 2017, with $2.8 billion, mainly for transportation and energy
  • Transportation projects received the most funding, with notable amounts in 2017 ($2 billion) and 2019 ($1 billion)
  • Loan inflows dropped significantly after 2017, with no borrowings between 2020 and 2022, and $973 million in 2023
Transportation accounts for 65% of Nigeria’s loans from China
  • Transportation received $6.2 billion dollars, which accounts for 65% of all Chinese loans to Nigeria
  • Energy projects received $1.2 billion, highlighting China’s role in Nigeria’s power infrastructure
  • Industry and trade/services had the least funding at $368.2 million dollars, reflecting lower Chinese loan priorities in these areas
  • China’s loans to Nigeria between 2000 and 2023 have largely focused on infrastructure development, particularly in transportation and energy
Energy has attracted the largest amount of Chinese loans to Africa
  • Energy attracted the largest share of Chinese loans to Africa, totalling $62.7 billion across 207 loans
  • Transportation received $52.7 billion—the second-highest amount—through 336 loans, making it the most frequently financed sector
  • Agriculture ($2.4 billion) and education ($2 billion) received relatively low funding, reflecting China’s focus on infrastructure
  • Smaller sectors like non-energy mining and services/social protection had minimal Chinese loan activity
Afrexim Research projections show that long-term debt will continue to dominate, making up 76.4% of Africa’s total debt by 2028
  • By 2028, 76.4% of Africa’s debt will be long-term, up from 75% in 2023.
  • The share of long-term debt will consistently rise each year.
  • Short-term and IMF debts will shrink to 23.6% by 2028, indicating reduced reliance on short-term borrowing.
  • The trend towards long-term debt reduces the immediate financial strain on governments but requires careful management to avoid excessive interest accumulation.
  • Countries must ensure that extended debt periods are matched with productive investments to justify future repayments.
  • A higher share of long-term debt could expose African economies to potential interest rate hikes in the future.
  • While long-term borrowing offers temporary relief, debt sustainability remains a key issue that policymakers must address.
11 African nations constituted 69% of the continent's total external debt stock as of H1 2024
  • Just 11 countries hold 69% of Africa’s total external debt.
  • South Africa (14%) carries the highest share.
  • Egypt (13%) and Nigeria (8%) are among the top three.
  • Countries from Northern and Southern regions hold over 30% of Africa’s external debt.
  • Many of these nations rely on debt to drive development, but without efficient utilisation, rising debt could become a major drag on future progress.
The number of debtors backed by movable assets owing financial institutions in Nigeria declined significantly from 2017 to 2018.
  • The number of collateral-backed debtors fell by almost 50% from 2017 to 2018
  • The number of debtors began increasing consistently from 2019 to 2021
  • The highest post-2018 debt level was recorded in 2023, reaching 7,390, which is close to pre-2018 figures.
  • The decline in 2018 could indicate cautious borrowing or stricter regulations, while the rise afterward suggests a possible easing of credit access.
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