Nigeria's external debt has gradually grown to nearly half of the country's total public debt as of H1 2024

Key takeaways:

  • External debt has nearly doubled as in 2017, it stood at 26.64%, but by 2024, it had risen to 46.96%.
  • Domestic debt has dropped from 73.36% in 2017 to 53.04% in 2024, showing a decline.
  • Nigeria’s increasing reliance on external loans suggests a strategic shift in public debt financing.
  • Unlike other years, domestic debt share slightly increased in 2023, rising to 60.74%, before external debt rebounded in 2024.
  • A rising share of external debt means higher exposure to foreign exchange risks and global market conditions.
  • If the trend continues, Nigeria’s external and domestic debt may soon be equal, reducing the traditional dominance of domestic borrowing.

The share of external debt in the country’s total public debt has increased from 26.64% in 2017 to 46.96% in the first half of 2024. This represents a clear trend of rising external borrowing, reducing the dominance of domestic debt in the overall debt structure. External debt has nearly doubled its share within this period, while domestic debt has seen a corresponding decline.
In 2017, domestic debt accounted for over 73% of total public debt, but by 2024, it had dropped to just 53%. This shift highlights a growing reliance on foreign borrowing, which could have implications for debt servicing costs, exchange rate fluctuations, and overall economic stability.

Source:

Debt Management Office (DMO)

Period:

2017 - 2024
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Nigeria has paid $57.67 billion in external debt interest in 54 years, with payments rising 1,140% since 2009
  • Nigeria spent $57.67B on external debt interest from 1970 to 2023.
  • Payments were low initially but rose steadily as borrowing increased.
  • In the 1990s, interest payments fluctuated due to debt rescheduling and restructuring agreements.
  • In 2005, payments jumped to $5.31B following a strategic debt buyback that accelerated obligations.
  • Annual payments climbed 1,139.6%, from $0.31B to $3.79B, showing rising debt service costs.
While Angola's debt service-to-GDP hits 68%, Algeria’s is 0.1%, showing huge variety in debt burdens
  • Angola and Ethiopia account for the highest debt service-to-GDP ratios in Africa, both exceeding 67%.
  • East Africa dominates the high debt-servicing bracket, with five countries among the top ten most burdened.
  • Algeria has the lowest debt service-to-GDP ratio on the continent at just 0.10%.
  • There’s a wide gap between the top and bottom debt service burdens, reflecting divergent fiscal paths across Africa.
  • Low debt servicing doesn’t automatically mean economic strength—it may reflect limited borrowing capacity.
While many other African nations face a high debt burden, Algeria's already low debt keeps falling to a projected 0.09% in 2025
  • Algeria’s debt service per GDP dropped from 0.77% in 2009 to a projected 0.09% in 2025.
  • The country’s debt service per GDP declined at a -11.9% CAGR from 2009–2025.
  • A high of 0.73% occurred in 2012 before the consistent decline resumed.
  • By 2015, the country's debt service fell to 0.27%, showing progress in reduction.
  • The lowest point is forecast for 2025, at 0.09% of GDP.
  • Algeria’s debt burden is among the lowest in Africa, contrasting with the rising trend in many other nations.
  • This low debt service level allows for greater fiscal flexibility in public spending and investment.
Nigeria's debt service per GDP increased from 0.7% in 2015 to 10.2% in 2024, with 2025 forecasted to reach 15.1%
  • Nigeria's debt service per GDP rose from 0.9% in 2009 to a projected 15.1% in 2025.
  • Overall CAGR from 2009 to 2025 is 17.8%.
  • President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure saw the fastest growth (29.1% CAGR).
  • Under President Goodluck Jonathan, growth was slower (6.5% CAGR).
  • President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s term so far shows a 27.6% CAGR.
Angola's debt burden reached a new peak in 2024, with its debt service hitting 68.3% of GDP
  • Debt service in Angola hit 68.3% of GDP in 2024.
  • Even with a projected fall to 67.7% in 2025, the debt burden remains high.
  • Between 2009 and 2025, the debt service ratio grew at a CAGR of 11.2%.
  • The ratio stayed below 15% from 2009 to 2014 before surging to 41.9% in 2016.
  • Angola has faced multiple spikes above 50% since 2019, showing recurring debt strain.
  • The sharp drop to 31.2% in 2022 was short-lived, followed by a steep increase.
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