Nigeria’s export mix stayed oil-heavy in 2025, with crude oil above 75% in all quarters

  • Crude oil dominated Nigeria’s exports in all quarters of 2025
  • Q1 recorded the highest oil dependency at 81.5%.
  • Non-oil exports peaked in Q2 at 24.2%, representing the strongest diversification point in 2025.
  • The oil share dropped to its lowest in Q2 (75.8%), but still remained dominant.

Nigeria’s export structure in 2025 remains heavily concentrated on crude oil

Nigeria’s export structure in 2025 remains heavily concentrated on crude oil, reinforcing a long-standing pattern in the country’s external trade profile. Across all four quarters, crude oil consistently accounted for over 75% of total exports, peaking at 81.5% in Q1 and remaining dominant through the rest of the year. While there were slight fluctuations quarter-to-quarter, the overall composition shows minimal change—highlighting how deeply embedded oil remains in Nigeria’s export economy.

Source:

National Bureau of Statistics

Period:

2025
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In 2025, Nigeria imported crude oil for the first time in the past decade, accounting for 11% of its total crude oil trade
Key takeaways:
  • Nigeria recorded its first crude oil imports in a decade in 2025, marking a structural shift in trade dynamics.
  • Imports accounted for 11% of total crude oil trade in 2025.
  • Total crude oil trade grew sharply from ₦7 trillion in 2016 to ₦53.2 trillion in 2025, indicating long-term expansion.
  • Exports remain dominant, contributing ₦47.4 trillion in 2025 despite the emergence of imports.
  • 2024 was the peak year for crude oil trade at ₦55.3 trillion, followed by a slight decline in 2025.
  • The 2020 dip of ₦9.4 trillion highlights vulnerability to global shocks, likely tied to oil price and demand disruptions.
Nigeria exported ₦47tn in crude, yet spent ₦45tn importing finished goods and refined petroleum
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  • Nigeria imports ₦31.97tn in manufactured goods but exports only ₦2.50tn, a 12-to-1 ratio that reflects near-total dependence on foreign industrial output.
  • Nigeria exports ₦25.3tn in petroleum products yet imports ₦13.3tn of refined petroleum. Africa's top oil producer still can't fully process its own crude.
  • Despite Nigeria's vast farmland, agri-exports (₦5.07tn) barely exceed agri-imports (₦4.76tn). The sector earns almost nothing net.
Malacca and Hormuz handle about 24% and 22% of global oil supply, respectively
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  • The Strait of Hormuz moves around 20–23% of global oil supply, making it the second-largest energy transit chokepoint.
  • The Cape of Good Hope carries about 9–10% of global oil flows, and its share tends to increase when other chokepoints face disruptions.
  • The Bab el-Mandeb saw a sharp drop in oil flow share from about 9% in 2023 to around 4% in 2024, reflecting security concerns affecting shipping in the Red Sea corridor.
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After three years of decline, China-Nigeria export trade hit a new peak of $24.9bn in 2025
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  • Trade rose steadily between 2016 and 2019, then surged sharply in 2021.
  • Exports declined for three consecutive years (2022–2024) after the 2021 peak.
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Post-pandemic trade reset lifts China–Africa exports to a record $225bn in 2025
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  • From 2021 to 2024, exports climbed every year, reaching $178.91 billion before the latest surge.
  • The increase from $178.91 billion in 2024 to $225 billion in 2025 signals a new growth surge after several years of gradual increases.
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