Nigeria will be the third most populous country in the world by 2050

Nigeria was the seventh most populous nation in the world in 2020, with 206.1 million people. Projected to reach a population of 401.3 million by 2050, Nigeria will rank third after India (1st) and China (2nd). According to Institut national d'études démographiques' projections, Nigeria, Ethiopia, DR Congo, Egypt, Tanzania, and Kenya will be among the world’s top 20 most populous countries by 2050.

Source:

Institut national d'études démographiques

Period:

2050
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Lagos’ population has grown by about 25% on average every 5 years since 1965
  • Lagos has grown from 325,200 in 1950 to a an estimated 17.2 million in 2025
  • The State’s fastest 5-year growth came between 1955–1960 at 62.7%.
  • Since 2000, growth has steadied around 18–20% every 5 years.
  • More than 10 million people added between 2000 and 2025 alone.
  • Growth continues to outstrip investments in housing, transport, and basic services.
By 2054, India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country, growing by 17.1% from 2024 to reach 1.69 billion people
Key Takeaways:
  • India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country in 2054, reaching 1.69 billion, an increase of 246 million from 2024.
  • China’s population is expected to decline to 1.22 billion by 2054, marking a 14.1% decrease.
  • Nigeria is projected to rise to 5th place globally, with a population of 374 million, a 62% increase from 2024.
  • The United States remains the only high-income country in the top five, with a projected population of 384 million.
  • Pakistan is expected to climb from 5th to 3rd place, adding 138 million people by 2054.
  • Three African countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo) are expected to rank among the top 10 most populous nations.
  • Russia is projected to see a population decline of 6.9%.
By 2100, seven African nations are expected to rank among the world’s 15 most populous countries, with Nigeria’s population projected to more than double
Key Takeaways:
  • India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country in 2100, with 1.5 billion people, a 4.5% increase from 2024.
  • China’s population is expected to fall sharply by 55.1% to 638.7 million, less than half of its 2024 population.
  • Pakistan's population is expected to nearly double by 2100.
  • Nigeria is projected to become the world’s fourth most populous country by 2100, with a population of more than 470 million.
  • Seven of the 15 most populous countries in 2100 are expected to be in Africa.
  • The United States is projected to rank sixth globally by 2100 from its current third position, despite a 22.2% expected population increase from 2024.
  • Together, the top 15 countries are expected to account for 57.9% of the global population by 2100.
  • The total world population is projected to reach 10.19 billion by the end of the century.
Nigeria's youth demographic is evident as Gen Z and Millennials combined comprise over 50.1% of the population
  • Gen Z and Millennials combined make up just over half of Nigeria’s population at 50.1%.
  • Gen Alpha alone represents 35.6% of the total population — the single largest generational cohort.
  • Gen Z, born between the late 1990s and early 2010s, accounts for 25.8% of Nigerians.
  • Millennials make up 24.3%, maintaining a strong influence across work, culture, and consumer trends.
  • Gen X, typically born between 1965 and 1980, represents only 9.2% of the population.
  • Older generations (Baby Boomers and Silent Generation) account for just 5.1% of the total population.
  • Nigeria’s entire population under the age of 44 (Gen Alpha, Gen Z, and Millennials) represents approximately 85.7% of the total population.
Nigeria spends millions of dollars on each national census
  • Nigeria spent $6 million on its first post-independence census in 1962.
  • There is no publicly available data on the amount spent during the 1991 census.
  • By 2006, census spending had surged to $266 million, highlighting a significant increase in the cost of national population counts.
  • The budget for the upcoming 2025 census has not yet been disclosed.
  • In April 2025, President Tinubu inaugurated the National Census Committee and gave a three-week deadline to submit a detailed report.
Generation Alpha has now surpassed all other generations, making up 24.4% of the global population
  • Generation Alpha is the largest generation, making up 24.4% of the global population.
  • Gen Z and Millennials still hold strong influence, comprising 22.9% and 21.2% of the global population.
  • The Baby Boomer generation (12.8%) is gradually declining, which will impact industries like retirement services, healthcare, and wealth distribution.
  • The Silent Generation is now just 2% of the population, highlighting the demographic shift away from the older generations.
  • Generation X, at 16.7%, remains a crucial but often overlooked group, balancing leadership roles in business and governance while supporting both older and younger generations.
  • The rise of Generation Alpha signals the dawn of an even more digital-native world, shaping the future of education, marketing, and work environments.
  • With Millennials, Gen Z, and Gen Alpha making up nearly 70% of the population, the global workforce, economy, and social dynamics will see rapid transformation in the coming years.
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