IMF forecasts growth in GDP per capita for Africa and Nigeria starting in 2025

Over the years, many African countries, including Nigeria, have experienced economic turbulence caused by fluctuating global markets and domestic challenges. However, amidst these challenges, there’s hope as IMF economic forecasts point toward growth.

According to the IMF, GDP per capita in Nigeria and Africa is projected to increase from 2025 after years of stagnation and decline. Nigeria’s GDP per capita fell sharply from $2,197 in 2022 to $877 in 2024. Encouragingly, growth is expected with projections of $1,047 for Nigeria by 2029, signaling a slow but steady improvement in living standards.

Source:

International Monetary Fund

Period:

2010 - 2029
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Nigeria’s GDP per capita dropped $710 below Sub-Saharan Africa’s average in 2024, its widest gap in 25 years
  • Nigeria’s GDP per capita stayed above the Sub-Saharan African average from 2002 to 2023.
  • In 2014, Nigeria peaked at $3,088.7, far ahead of the region’s $1,886.5.
  • The post-2014 oil crash triggered a prolonged economic slide for Nigeria.
  • By 2023, Nigeria ($1,596.6) and Sub-Saharan Africa ($1,580.8) were nearly identical.
  • In 2024, Nigeria fell sharply to $806.9, $710 below the regional average of $1,516.4, its widest gap in over two decades.
Ghana’s GDP per capita has grown nearly tenfold since 2000, despite years of economic volatility
  • Between 2000 and 2008, Ghana’s GDP per capita rose from $253.7 to $1,182.7, more than quadrupling in just nine years.
  • It peaked in 2013 at $2,294.8 but declined sharply after 2014.
  • After a dip in 2022, it rebounded to $2,405.8 in 2024, nearly 10 times higher than the figure in 2000.
  • The declines seen in 2009, 2015, and 2022 mirror global and local crises, including the 2008 financial crash, commodity shocks, and post-COVID disruptions.
Nigeria’s nominal GDP has grown by over 80%, but real GDP has grown by only 6%
  • Real GDP grew from ₦205.1 trillion in 2019 to ₦217.8 trillion in 2024, a modest 6% rise.
  • Nominal GDP jumped from ₦205.1 trillion to ₦372.8 trillion over the same period, an 82% increase.
  • The gap between nominal and real GDP widened sharply after 2021, reaching ₦155 trillion in 2024.
  • Nominal GDP has grown year-on-year, with the steepest jump between 2023 (₦314.0 trillion) and 2024 (₦372.8 trillion).
  • Inflationary pressures have driven nominal gains, masking subdued real economic expansion.
Administrative services surged by 21%, recording the most significant growth in Nigeria's 2024 rebased economy
  • Administrative & support services showed the highest percentage increase at 21.07%.
  • Agriculture is the largest sector by GDP value, at ₦59.31 trillion.
  • Trade is the second largest sector by GDP value, at ₦37.81 trillion.
  • Real estate is the third largest sector by GDP value, at ₦28.96 trillion.
  • Other services experienced negative growth, decreasing by -1.17%.
  • Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply recorded the lowest positive growth at 0.56%.
Sudan faced the most severe economic contraction among African nations in 2024, with a real GDP decline of -13.49%
  • Sudan recorded the steepest GDP decline in Africa in 2024 at -13.49%.
  • Botswana’s economy contracted by -2.99%, the second-worst on the continent.
  • Libya was the only other country in the bottom 10 with negative growth at -0.61%.
  • South Africa, with 0.58% growth, continues to struggle with low economic momentum.
  • Sao Tome & Principe and Equatorial Guinea both recorded growth below 1%.
  • Despite being Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria’s 3.43% growth places it closer to underperforming countries than to the continent’s fastest risers.
While Rwanda saw the highest growth in 2024's real GDP, West African nations showed great performance, as 6 nations made the top 10 list
  • Rwanda recorded the highest GDP growth in Africa in 2024 at 8.89%.
  • Six out of the top ten fastest-growing economies in Africa are from West Africa.
  • Niger and Benin posted impressive growth rates of 8.42% and 7.45% respectively.
  • Nigeria, one of Africa’s biggest economies, had a growth rate of 3.43%, below countries like Senegal and Cabo Verde.
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