Ethiopia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio projected to double its domestic debt-to-GDP ratio in 2025

Key takeaways:

  • External debt is set to surpass domestic debt by 2025, reaching a peak of 28.3% of GDP, which indicates a major shift in Ethiopia’s debt strategy.
  • Ethiopia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio dropped consistently from 26.8% in 2020 to 13.7% in 2024, but a sharp increase is projected for 2025.
  • Domestic debt peaked at 27.1% in 2021 before declining steadily to 18.7% in 2024, with a further decline expected in 2025 (14.5%).
  • The sharp rise in external debt in 2025 suggests a major policy shift, possibly driven by the need for foreign capital or declining domestic financing options.
  • The decline in domestic debt may indicate reduced government borrowing from local sources, which could have implications for local financial markets and inflation.
  • Foreign debt reliance increases exposure to currency risks and external economic conditions, which could affect Ethiopia’s financial stability in the long run.

Ethiopia’s external debt is projected to surpass domestic debt by 2025. The IMF forecasts that Ethiopia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio will peak at 28.3%, marking a sharp rise from previous years. Meanwhile, domestic debt is expected to continue its downward trajectory, falling to 14.5% of GDP by 2025. This shift signals a growing reliance on external borrowing to finance the country’s economic activities. Between 2020 and 2024, external debt saw a consistent decline from 26.8% to a low of 13.7%, but projections for 2025 indicate a dramatic reversal.

Source:

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Finance Projections by the IMF Country Report

Period:

2020 - 2025
HTML code to embed chart
Want a bespoke report?
Reach out
Click to copy HTML embed code
Tags
Related Insights
Nigeria’s public debt has soared since 2010, with domestic debt up 2,020% and external debt up 1,000% by mid 2025
  • Nigeria’s domestic debt jumped from ₦3.8 trillion in 2010 to ₦80.55 trillion by mid-2025.
  • Foreign debts increased from $4.27 billion in 2010 to $46.98 billion in 2025, reflecting growing reliance on external financing.
  • Debt accumulation surged notably after 2020, coinciding with pandemic spending, naira depreciation, and higher fiscal deficits.
  • The widening gap between revenue and debt service raises questions about Nigeria’s long-term debt sustainability.
Borno records lowest domestic debt in North-East Nigeria at ₦22.3 billion in Q2 2025
  • The six North-Eastern states collectively owe around ₦450 billion in domestic debt as of Q2 2025.
  • Borno State maintains the lowest debt in the region at ₦22.3 billion, showing signs of controlled borrowing amid post-conflict rebuilding.
  • Bauchi State has the highest domestic debt burden of ₦143.6 billion, accounting for about 31% of the region’s total.
  • The top three states, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe, collectively account for more than two-thirds of the zone’s total subnational debt stock.
In just six months, Nigeria spent over $2.3 billion servicing external debts
  • Nigeria paid $816.3 million to the International Monetary Fund, accounting for over 35% of total external debt service payments.
  • Eurobond payments followed closely, with $687.8 million paid, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on commercial debt instruments.
  • Multilateral lenders like IDA and AfDB collectively received about $463 million, signalling continued exposure to concessional financing.
  • China’s share shrinking: Payments to Chinese lenders (EXIM + CDB) totalled $235.6 million, less than 11% of total outflows, suggesting reduced Chinese debt servicing in H1 2025.
Over 60% of Nigeria’s ₦1.7 trillion domestic debt service in Q2 2025 was spent on Federal Government Bonds
  • FGN bonds dominated: ₦1.07 trillion went to Federal Government Bonds, accounting for about 63% of total domestic debt servicing.
  • Treasury bills followed: Payments on NTBs reached ₦537.9 billion, making up roughly 31% of the total.
  • Sukuk and promissory notes together cost ₦90.8 billion, reflecting Nigeria’s mix of infrastructure and settlement instruments.
  • Green and savings bonds remained minimal, together below ₦5 billion, showing limited traction for retail and sustainability-focused debt.
93% of Nigeria's public debt is owed by the Federal Government
  • The Federal Government’s share of total public debt rose from 79.5% in 2019 to 92.6% in 2025.
  • States’ share has more than halved, from 20.5% to 7.4% in six years.
  • Total public debt grew from $83.9 billion to $99.7 billion, peaking at $113.4 billion in 2023.
  • Nigeria’s debt burden is increasingly concentrated at the centre, amplifying federal repayment risks and reducing fiscal independence for states.
60% of Nigeria's ₦152.4 trillion public debt is owed to domestic lenders
  • Total public debt hits ₦152.4 trillion, marking another milestone in Nigeria’s expanding debt profile.
  • Domestic debt leads at ₦80.5 trillion, making up about 53% of total obligations.
  • External debt stands at ₦71.8 trillion, equivalent to roughly 47%, reflecting Nigeria’s ongoing exposure to foreign lenders.
  • The data signals growing fiscal dependence on local markets, as authorities seek to limit exchange rate risks while still financing deficits.
POPULAR TOPICS
SIGN UP TO OUR NEWSLETTER
Get periodic updates about the African startup space, access to our reports, among others.
Subscribe Here
Subscription Form
A product of Techpoint Africa. All rights reserved