Afrexim Research projections show that long-term debt will continue to dominate, making up 76.4% of Africa’s total debt by 2028

Key takeaways:

  • By 2028, 76.4% of Africa’s debt will be long-term, up from 75% in 2023.
  • The share of long-term debt will consistently rise each year.
  • Short-term and IMF debts will shrink to 23.6% by 2028, indicating reduced reliance on short-term borrowing.
  • The trend towards long-term debt reduces the immediate financial strain on governments but requires careful management to avoid excessive interest accumulation.
  • Countries must ensure that extended debt periods are matched with productive investments to justify future repayments.
  • A higher share of long-term debt could expose African economies to potential interest rate hikes in the future.
  • While long-term borrowing offers temporary relief, debt sustainability remains a key issue that policymakers must address.

Africa's debt is shifting further toward long-term obligations, with projections indicating that by 2028, 76.4% of the continent’s total debt will be long-term. This slow but steady increase underscores a preference for extended repayment periods, reducing the burden of short-term debt repayments but potentially increasing overall costs due to prolonged interest payments.
In everyday terms, this is similar to how businesses or individuals prefer long-term loans over short-term ones to ease immediate financial pressure. While long-term financing offers breathing space, it requires strong fiscal discipline to ensure that repayments remain sustainable in the future.

Source:

Afreximbank

Period:

2024 - 2028
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Nigeria’s public debt has soared since 2010, with domestic debt up 2,020% and external debt up 1,000% by mid 2025
  • Nigeria’s domestic debt jumped from ₦3.8 trillion in 2010 to ₦80.55 trillion by mid-2025.
  • Foreign debts increased from $4.27 billion in 2010 to $46.98 billion in 2025, reflecting growing reliance on external financing.
  • Debt accumulation surged notably after 2020, coinciding with pandemic spending, naira depreciation, and higher fiscal deficits.
  • The widening gap between revenue and debt service raises questions about Nigeria’s long-term debt sustainability.
Borno records lowest domestic debt in North-East Nigeria at ₦22.3 billion in Q2 2025
  • The six North-Eastern states collectively owe around ₦450 billion in domestic debt as of Q2 2025.
  • Borno State maintains the lowest debt in the region at ₦22.3 billion, showing signs of controlled borrowing amid post-conflict rebuilding.
  • Bauchi State has the highest domestic debt burden of ₦143.6 billion, accounting for about 31% of the region’s total.
  • The top three states, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe, collectively account for more than two-thirds of the zone’s total subnational debt stock.
In just six months, Nigeria spent over $2.3 billion servicing external debts
  • Nigeria paid $816.3 million to the International Monetary Fund, accounting for over 35% of total external debt service payments.
  • Eurobond payments followed closely, with $687.8 million paid, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on commercial debt instruments.
  • Multilateral lenders like IDA and AfDB collectively received about $463 million, signalling continued exposure to concessional financing.
  • China’s share shrinking: Payments to Chinese lenders (EXIM + CDB) totalled $235.6 million, less than 11% of total outflows, suggesting reduced Chinese debt servicing in H1 2025.
Over 60% of Nigeria’s ₦1.7 trillion domestic debt service in Q2 2025 was spent on Federal Government Bonds
  • FGN bonds dominated: ₦1.07 trillion went to Federal Government Bonds, accounting for about 63% of total domestic debt servicing.
  • Treasury bills followed: Payments on NTBs reached ₦537.9 billion, making up roughly 31% of the total.
  • Sukuk and promissory notes together cost ₦90.8 billion, reflecting Nigeria’s mix of infrastructure and settlement instruments.
  • Green and savings bonds remained minimal, together below ₦5 billion, showing limited traction for retail and sustainability-focused debt.
93% of Nigeria's public debt is owed by the Federal Government
  • The Federal Government’s share of total public debt rose from 79.5% in 2019 to 92.6% in 2025.
  • States’ share has more than halved, from 20.5% to 7.4% in six years.
  • Total public debt grew from $83.9 billion to $99.7 billion, peaking at $113.4 billion in 2023.
  • Nigeria’s debt burden is increasingly concentrated at the centre, amplifying federal repayment risks and reducing fiscal independence for states.
60% of Nigeria's ₦152.4 trillion public debt is owed to domestic lenders
  • Total public debt hits ₦152.4 trillion, marking another milestone in Nigeria’s expanding debt profile.
  • Domestic debt leads at ₦80.5 trillion, making up about 53% of total obligations.
  • External debt stands at ₦71.8 trillion, equivalent to roughly 47%, reflecting Nigeria’s ongoing exposure to foreign lenders.
  • The data signals growing fiscal dependence on local markets, as authorities seek to limit exchange rate risks while still financing deficits.
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