11 African nations constituted 69% of the continent's total external debt stock as of H1 2024

Key takeaways:

  • Just 11 countries hold 69% of Africa’s total external debt.
  • South Africa (14%) carries the highest share.
  • Egypt (13%) and Nigeria (8%) are among the top three.
  • Countries from Northern and Southern regions hold over 30% of Africa’s external debt.
  • Many of these nations rely on debt to drive development, but without efficient utilisation, rising debt could become a major drag on future progress.

Africa's external debt is highly concentrated, with just 11 countries accounting for 69% of the continent’s total debt stock in the first half of 2024. South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria hold 14%, 13%, and 8% of Africa’s external debt, respectively.

A closer look at the data shows that North and Southern Africa dominate, with Egypt, Morocco, and South Africa collectively accounting for one-third of the total external debt. Meanwhile, some of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, such as Kenya and Ghana, also hold significant portions, each with 4% of the total debt stock. This raises questions about how these nations are managing their debt obligations amid growing economic challenges.

Source:

Afreximbank

Period:

2024
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While Angola's debt service-to-GDP hits 68%, Algeria’s is 0.1%, showing huge variety in debt burdens
  • Angola and Ethiopia account for the highest debt service-to-GDP ratios in Africa, both exceeding 67%.
  • East Africa dominates the high debt-servicing bracket, with five countries among the top ten most burdened.
  • Algeria has the lowest debt service-to-GDP ratio on the continent at just 0.10%.
  • There’s a wide gap between the top and bottom debt service burdens, reflecting divergent fiscal paths across Africa.
  • Low debt servicing doesn’t automatically mean economic strength—it may reflect limited borrowing capacity.
While many other African nations face a high debt burden, Algeria's already low debt keeps falling to a projected 0.09% in 2025
  • Algeria’s debt service per GDP dropped from 0.77% in 2009 to a projected 0.09% in 2025.
  • The country’s debt service per GDP declined at a -11.9% CAGR from 2009–2025.
  • A high of 0.73% occurred in 2012 before the consistent decline resumed.
  • By 2015, the country's debt service fell to 0.27%, showing progress in reduction.
  • The lowest point is forecast for 2025, at 0.09% of GDP.
  • Algeria’s debt burden is among the lowest in Africa, contrasting with the rising trend in many other nations.
  • This low debt service level allows for greater fiscal flexibility in public spending and investment.
Nigeria's debt service per GDP increased from 0.7% in 2015 to 10.2% in 2024, with 2025 forecasted to reach 15.1%
  • Nigeria's debt service per GDP rose from 0.9% in 2009 to a projected 15.1% in 2025.
  • Overall CAGR from 2009 to 2025 is 17.8%.
  • President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure saw the fastest growth (29.1% CAGR).
  • Under President Goodluck Jonathan, growth was slower (6.5% CAGR).
  • President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s term so far shows a 27.6% CAGR.
Angola's debt burden reached a new peak in 2024, with its debt service hitting 68.3% of GDP
  • Debt service in Angola hit 68.3% of GDP in 2024.
  • Even with a projected fall to 67.7% in 2025, the debt burden remains high.
  • Between 2009 and 2025, the debt service ratio grew at a CAGR of 11.2%.
  • The ratio stayed below 15% from 2009 to 2014 before surging to 41.9% in 2016.
  • Angola has faced multiple spikes above 50% since 2019, showing recurring debt strain.
  • The sharp drop to 31.2% in 2022 was short-lived, followed by a steep increase.
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