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Alex Otti’s administration reduced Abia's domestic debt by 66%, with external debt rising by 14%
  • Abia’s domestic debt dropped by 66% between 2023 and 2025.
  • The state reduced domestic debt by about ₦94 billion.
  • Debt fell from roughly ₦138 billion to about ₦48.5 billion within two and a half years.
  • About ₦72 billion of inherited debt was cleared early in the administration.
  • External debt increased by 14% (+$12.9 million) over the same period.

Under Umo Eno, Akwa Ibom’s domestic debt fell 41.5%, from ₦138.6bn to ₦48.5bn
  • Akwa Ibom’s domestic debt fell 41.5% over the period, from ₦138.6 billion to ₦48.5 billion.
  • External debt was almost stable, slipping just 0.9%.
  • The sharpest debt adjustment happened in local-currency obligations, not foreign debt.
  • The highest domestic debt level during the period was in December 2023.

Only six states and the FCT are borrowing more domestically, with the FCT leading by a 123% domestic debt growth
  • Only six states and the FCT increased domestic debt.
  • The FCT recorded the fastest domestic debt growth at 122.8%.
  • Enugu posted the second-highest increase at 70%.
  • Lagos remains the biggest borrower by value at ₦1.2 trillion.
  • Niger, Bauchi, and Kaduna saw smaller, yet notable increases.
  • Debt growth is concentrated, not broad-based across all states.

After steady growth, the FCT’s debt spiked sharply by 139% in Q4 2025
  • FCT Abuja’s domestic debt jumped from ₦79 billion to ₦189 billion in one quarter.
  • This equals a 139.1% quarter-on-quarter increase.
  • Before Q4 2025, debt growth was relatively moderate.
  • Debt fell in 2024 before recovering in 2025.
  • The 2025 recovery was gradual until the final-quarter spike.
  • Q4 2025 pushed debt to the highest level in the series.

Lagos, Rivers, and four other states account for 52% of all Nigerian states' domestic debt and 40% of their external debt
  • Lagos dominates Nigeria’s subnational debt profile, accounting for 26.1% of domestic debt and 21.8% of external debt.
  • Six states account for 52% of domestic debt.
  • The same group contributes 40% of the external debt
  • Rivers ranks second in domestic debt (9.5%) but has a significantly lower external debt (3.8%).
  • Kaduna emerges as a major external borrower (13.7%) despite not appearing among the top domestic debt states.

Finance & Insurance now makes up 30% of Nigeria’s domestic company income tax, up from 12% in 2022
  • Company income tax collections rose from ₦1.7tn in 2022 to ₦5.0tn in 2025.
  • Finance & Insurance more than doubled its share, from 12.4% to 30.0%.
  • Finance became the largest single sector in the tax mix by 2025.
  • Manufacturing remained important, but its share fell from 27.9% to 17.7%.
  • ICT saw one of the sharpest declines, from 21.6% to 6.5%.
  • Mining & quarrying gained weight, rising from 8.4% to 14.5%.
  • Wholesale & retail also increased, from 3.6% to 7.0%.
  • The tax base became less evenly distributed across sectors.

Nigeria's VAT collections have more than tripled in three years
  • Nigeria’s total VAT rose from ₦2.5tn in 2022 to ₦8.6tn in 2025.
  • VAT collections more than tripled in four years.
  • Local VAT remained the largest source of VAT throughout the period.
  • Local VAT increased from ₦1.5tn to ₦4.5tn.
  • Local VAT averaged 54.4% of total VAT between 2022 and 2025.
  • Import VAT also grew strongly, from ₦521.5bn to ₦2.0tn.
  • Other payment channels rose from ₦510.8bn to ₦2.1tn.
  • VAT growth is increasingly being driven by non-import activity.

Agriculture’s share of Nigeria’s capital imports peaked at 5.46% in 2021 before falling to 0.72% in 2025
  • Agriculture’s share of Nigeria’s capital imports peaked at 5.46% in 2021
  • After 2025, agriculture's share started falling sharply, reaching 0.72% in 2025.
  • Between 2017 and 2021, the sector experienced consistent growth in both value and share.
  • Capital import value peaked at at $489.9 million in 2019.

85 cents of every dollar in capital imported into Nigeria in 2025 went to portfolio investments
  • Nigeria's total capital imports surged to $23.2bn in 2025, the highest level recorded in the entire 2014 to 2025 period.
  • Foreign Portfolio Investment dominated in 2025, claiming 85 cents of every dollar imported, up sharply from 68% in 2024.
  • Foreign Direct Investment has remained consistently weak, never exceeding 20% across all eleven years, and falling to just 4% in 2025.
  • The "Others" category, which peaked at 61% in 2023, has collapsed to just 11% in 2025, reflecting a dramatic shift toward portfolio-driven capital flows

Nigeria's foreign capital inflows nearly reached the 2019 record, but 87% went to banks and financiers
  • Inflows surged from $3.9B in 2023 to $23.2B in 2025, near the all-time record.
  • Banking and financing captured 87% of all inflows.
  • Agriculture got $167M, oil and gas $18M, and construction $6M, .
  • The recovery is real, but it is not yet reaching ordinary Nigerians.

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