Energy - Intelpoint

Non-fossil generation overtook coal in 2023, with the gap reaching 57.5 TWh in 2025.
Coal generation fell to 225.3 TWh, below its 262.6 TWh peak in 2007.
Hydropower dominates non-fossil generation, producing 188.6 TWh in 2025.
Fossil fuels still dominate, generating 703.2 TWh versus 282.8 TWh from non-fossil sources.

Africa’s share of global electricity generation rose only from 2.6% in 1985 to 3.1% in 2025.
Africa’s electricity generation increased 283% over the past 40 years.
Egypt overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest electricity producer in 2024.
Egypt generated 242.4 TWh in 2025, up from 30.3 TWh in 1985.
South Africa generated 231.1 TWh in 2025, down from its 263.5 TWh peak in 2007.
Egypt and South Africa accounted for 24.5% of Africa’s electricity generation in 2025.

Eswatini recorded Africa’s largest electricity access gain, rising by 66 percentage points from 2000 to 2023.
Kenya and Rwanda followed with gains of 61 pp and 58 pp, respectively.
East African countries accounted for 7 of Africa’s top 15 electricity access improvements.
Comoros, Ghana and Cape Verde reached very high access levels by 2023, at 90%, 90% and 99% respectively.
Nigeria’s electricity access improved by 18 percentage points, from 43% in 2000 to 61% in 2023.
Despite that improvement, Nigeria remained outside Africa’s top 15 gainers over the period.
Some countries were absent from the ranking because they had already reached high access levels by 2000.

Nigeria still had about 5.25 million unmetered electricity customers across DisCos.
The 11 DisCos reported in Q4 2025 had 5.20 million unmetered customers.
Nigeria’s reported metering rate stood at 57.3% as of Q4 2025.
Ibadan and Enugu had the largest gaps, with nearly two million unmetered customers combined.
Ibadan alone had 1.18 million unmetered customers, the highest of any DisCo.
Ikeja and Eko had the strongest metering performance, both at about 86%.
At the 2025 pace of meter additions, closing the current gap could take close to seven years.

The highest number of grid collapses in the past 16 years occurred in 2010, with 42 incidents recorded.
During Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, Nigeria’s grid collapsed an average of 24.4 times a year, the highest among the three administrations.
Under Muhammadu Buhari, the annual average dropped to 12.8 collapses per year, indicating improved grid stability compared to earlier years.
Under Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the average has fallen further to about 6.7 collapses annually.
2016 recorded the highest number of collapses during the Buhari administration, with 28 incidents.
The most stable years in the dataset were 2020 and 2021, with only four collapses each.

Thermal energy dominates Nigeria’s grid, supplying 69.9% of total power.
Hydro plants contribute 30.1%, making them the country’s second major source.
The heavy reliance on thermal generation shows Nigeria’s grid is still largely fossil-fuel driven.
Hydro remains a crucial but secondary source, supporting overall supply stability.

DisCos billed approximately ₦1.49 trillion but collected only ₦1.12 trillion in H1 2025.
Ikeja and Eko DisCos generated the highest revenues, collecting ₦206.22 billion and ₦210.59 billion, respectively.
Revenue collection gaps remain significant, with Jos, Kaduna, and Yola posting the weakest collection performances.
The wide gap between billings and actual collections suggests persistent challenges in customer payment compliance, metering, and distribution efficiency.

Approximately 3.65 million metres have been installed nationwide across all frameworks since 2019.
Ikeja DisCo leads by a wide margin with 823,000 installations, over twice the volume of most other DisCos.
Kaduna, Yola, and Aba Power recorded the lowest metre installations, each below 100,000.
The disparities in installation totals reveal uneven progress in achieving nationwide metering coverage.

Ikeja (84.6%) and Eko (83.3%) lead Nigeria’s metering performance, keeping unmetered customers below 17%.
Eight out of the twelve DisCos have metering rates below 60%, showing a wide sector imbalance.
The worst-performing DisCos — Yola, Jos, Kaduna, and Kano — have over 65% unmetered customers.
Regional disparities are sharp: Lagos and Abuja outperform northern and south-eastern DisCos by large margins.

Urban electricity access has remained between 80% and 89% since 1990, never crossing to 90%.
The inability to achieve universal access suggests that infrastructure expansion has struggled to keep pace with rapid urbanisation and population growth.
Periodic dips in access, such as in 2010 and 2015, point to challenges in maintaining consistent electricity supply rather than just extending connections.
Insufficient generation, outdated grids, and policy inefficiencies have constrained Nigeria’s ability to deliver reliable and universal electricity access even in its urban centres.

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