Debt - Intelpoint

Angola and Ethiopia account for the highest debt service-to-GDP ratios in Africa, both exceeding 67%.
East Africa dominates the high debt-servicing bracket, with five countries among the top ten most burdened.
Algeria has the lowest debt service-to-GDP ratio on the continent at just 0.10%.
There’s a wide gap between the top and bottom debt service burdens, reflecting divergent fiscal paths across Africa.
Low debt servicing doesn’t automatically mean economic strength—it may reflect limited borrowing capacity.

Algeria’s debt service per GDP dropped from 0.77% in 2009 to a projected 0.09% in 2025.
The country’s debt service per GDP declined at a -11.9% CAGR from 2009–2025.
A high of 0.73% occurred in 2012 before the consistent decline resumed.
By 2015, the country's debt service fell to 0.27%, showing progress in reduction.
The lowest point is forecast for 2025, at 0.09% of GDP.
Algeria’s debt burden is among the lowest in Africa, contrasting with the rising trend in many other nations.
This low debt service level allows for greater fiscal flexibility in public spending and investment.

Nigeria's debt service per GDP rose from 0.9% in 2009 to a projected 15.1% in 2025.
Overall CAGR from 2009 to 2025 is 17.8%.
President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure saw the fastest growth (29.1% CAGR).
Under President Goodluck Jonathan, growth was slower (6.5% CAGR).
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s term so far shows a 27.6% CAGR.

Debt service in Angola hit 68.3% of GDP in 2024.
Even with a projected fall to 67.7% in 2025, the debt burden remains high.
Between 2009 and 2025, the debt service ratio grew at a CAGR of 11.2%.
The ratio stayed below 15% from 2009 to 2014 before surging to 41.9% in 2016.
Angola has faced multiple spikes above 50% since 2019, showing recurring debt strain.
The sharp drop to 31.2% in 2022 was short-lived, followed by a steep increase.

Sudan’s debt-to-GDP ratio of 238.8% is the highest in Africa and over twice the size of its economy.
Three African countries—Sudan, Cabo Verde, and Zambia—have debt burdens exceeding 100% of their GDP.
Egypt, Mozambique, and the Congo Republic follow closely with ratios above 88% each, despite efforts at economic reform.
Ghana and Sierra Leone are also in the top 10, showing that West Africa isn’t exempt from debt pressure.
Nigeria, while not in the top 10, has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 41.3% and ranks 43rd in Africa.
A high debt-to-GDP ratio often limits a country’s ability to invest in growth-driving sectors, even if the economy is growing nominally.

DR Congo has the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio in Africa, at just 11.1%.
Africa’s average debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 63.2%, meaning most countries on the bottom 10 list are performing better than the continental average.
Nigeria, despite its size and challenges, still maintains a relatively moderate debt load of 41.3%.
Botswana’s debt ratio of 18.1% places it among Africa’s most fiscally conservative economies.
Ethiopia and Guinea, both undergoing major economic transitions, still keep debt levels below 32%.
The presence of both low-income and resource-rich countries on the list shows that low debt isn’t exclusive to one economic model.

From just $190 million in 2006, Lagos State's year-end external debt rose significantly to over $1.1 billion by 2024, a more than 500% increase over 19 years.
The highest year-end debt was recorded in 2017 at $1.47 billion, with a gradual decline afterwards, except for a brief rise again in 2022–2023.
By 2024, Lagos State's external debt dipped slightly to $1.17 billion, suggesting some debt service or currency gain effects.
If Lagos State paid off or borrowed funds in a given year, only the remaining unpaid amount by year-end is shown in the data.

Lagos alone accounts for nearly 25% of all Nigerian states’ external debt, totalling $1.17 billion.
The combined debt of Lagos, Kaduna, and Edo is larger than the sum of the debts of the bottom 30 states.
States like Yobe, Abuja, and Jigawa each owe less than $25 million externally, indicating minimal foreign exposure.
Cross River, Rivers, and Ogun round out the top six debtors, each with external debts around [$190–210] million.
Just eleven states owe over $100 million each, while the majority owes less than that threshold.
Despite 36 subnational governments, the federal government’s $40.98 billion external debt is over 8x that of all states combined.

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