Petrol prices surged by nearly 1000% in 9 years

Key Takeaways

  • In February 2016, petrol was at its lowest price of ₦99.80 per litre, marking the last time fuel prices remained below ₦100.
  • By November 2024, petrol prices soared to an all-time high of ₦1,214.17 per litre, reflecting the compounded effects of inflation, currency depreciation, and global oil price volatility.
  • Over the nine-year period, the average petrol price stood at ₦272.65 per litre.
  • Between January 2016 and December 2024, petrol prices increased by ₦1,079.52, a staggering 984.96% rise, emphasising the long-term upward trajectory influenced by economic challenges, subsidy removals, and fluctuating exchange rates.
  • The most volatile period recorded a month-to-month price surge of over 129.23%.

Over the past nine years, petrol prices in Nigeria have experienced a dramatic and relentless rise, climbing from ₦109.60 per liter in January 2016 to ₦1,189.12 per litre in December 2024, a staggering 984.96% increase. While the early years saw moderate fluctuations, the trend took a sharp upward trajectory in recent years, driven by economic shifts, subsidy removals, currency depreciation, and global oil price volatility.

The sharpest single-month price surge occurred in June 2023, when petrol prices skyrocketed by 129.23% compared to the previous month. This unprecedented leap marked a pivotal moment in Nigeria’s fuel pricing history, coinciding with the removal of fuel subsidies, which instantly doubled the cost of petrol and sent ripple effects across the economy.

The highest recorded price of ₦1,214.17 per liter came in November 2024, reflecting continued economic pressures, while the lowest price of ₦99.80 per litre was observed in February 2016, when subsidies still kept fuel costs relatively low. Despite these extremes, the average petrol price over the nine-year period was ₦272.65 per litre, showing that while drastic spikes occurred, there were also periods of relative stability.

Source:

National bureau of statistics

Period:

2016 to 2024
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The South-West remitted ₦341.18B in VAT but received only ₦106.85B, getting back just ₦0.31 for every ₦1 remitted.
  • Lagos carried the South-West VAT burden, remitting ₦305.52B (89.6% of the region's total) but receiving only ₦62.59B (20.5% return), making it the highest net contributor in Nigeria.
  • Osun had the most disproportionate gain, remitting a mere ₦590M but receiving ₦7.73B, an astronomical 1,211% return—the highest redistribution gain in the South-West.
  • The entire South-West remitted ₦341.18B but received only ₦106.85B, meaning it got back just ₦0.31 for every ₦1 contributed, highlighting a severe VAT allocation imbalance.
  • Ondo and Ogun remitted only ₦3.3B but received ₦16B combined, far exceeding their generated VAT, while Lagos alone subsidised most of the allocations across the country.
Abia State generated just 1.9% of the South-East’s VAT revenue but took home 18.6% of the total the region received
  • The South-East remitted ₦10.94 billion in VAT but received ₦39.15 billion, a 257.7% increase, showing a high reliance on VAT sharing.
  • Abia, the lowest contributor (₦734M), received ₦7.29B, nearly 10× its remittance, making it the biggest relative beneficiary in the region.
  • Anambra, the highest contributor (₦3.56B), received only ₦8.72B, showing a sharing trend where high-contributing states do not necessarily receive the most.
  • Every South-East state received at least 2× what they remitted, with an average allocation of ₦7.83B despite an average contribution of just ₦2.19B.
Zamfara, the lowest contributor, received over 5× its input, while Kano, the highest contributor, had the lowest relative gain
  • The North-West region received ₦66.55 billion, more than double its remittance (₦28.31B), showing a heavy reliance on federal VAT sharing.
  • Zamfara, the lowest contributor (₦1.45B), received the highest percentage gain (+433%), getting ₦7.72B, while Kano, the highest contributor (₦9.59B), had the smallest relative gain (+41.5%).
  • Kaduna and Katsina, despite remitting ₦3.50B and ₦3.86B, received ₦10.18B and ₦10.01B, respectively, nearly tripling their remittance.
  • Kano remitted 34% of the zone’s VAT but received only 20.4% of the total allocation, reinforcing that VAT is distributed based on equality and not economic strength.
Every North-East state received at least 2× what they contributed (₦46.68 billion in total), a 211.6% increase
  • The North-East remitted only ₦14.98 billion but received ₦46.68 billion, showing a 211.6% gain due to sharing.
  • Taraba, the lowest contributor (₦0.94 billion), saw the highest percentage gain (635%) with an allocation of ₦6.91 billion, reinforcing that smaller economies benefit the most from VAT sharing.
  • Bauchi, despite remitting just ₦2.44 billion, received the highest allocation (₦8.93 billion), a 266% increase, illustrating how VAT is shared based on equality and population, not economic activity.
  • Every state in the region received at least 2× what they remitted, highlighting the North East’s reliance on VAT sharing and fuelling the fiscal federalism debate on whether VAT should be retained at the state level.
South-west remitted ₦341.38B but received only ₦99.85B
  • South-West drives Nigeria’s VAT but gets little back. The region remitted ₦341.38B (53%) but received only ₦99.85B (29% return).
  • South-South remitted ₦121.84B but got ₦52.49B (43% return); Rivers alone gave ₦90.21B but got just ₦11.01B.
  • The North enjoyed the highest VAT gains, remitting ₦66.18B and receiving ₦161.11B (240% return); the North-West got ₦66.75B from ₦28.31B (235% return).
  • South-East and North-East got the biggest VAT boost. South-East: ₦10.94B remitted, ₦39.13B received (357.6% return); North-East: ₦14.94B remitted, ₦46.68B received (312.5% return).
Lagos State’s IGR skyrocketed 112% from ₦384.26B in 2013 to a record ₦815.86B in 2023
  • Lagos State’s IGR grew by 112%, from ₦384.26B in 2013 to a record ₦815.86B in 2023.
  • Revenue dipped to ₦268.22B in 2015 before recovering and steadily increasing.
  • A major jump occurred in 2019, with IGR rising from ₦382.18B to ₦646.61B in one year.
  • Despite a dip in 2022, IGR hit an all-time high in 2023, signalling a strong economic recovery.
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