More than half of the Federal Government of Nigeria’s domestic debt services are services on FGN bonds

Key takeaways:

  • FGN Bonds dominate Nigeria’s domestic debt service payments, rising from 66.6% in 2017 to 87.9% in 2024. This reflects a growing reliance on long-term debt financing.
  • Treasury Bills have seen a sharp decline in their share of domestic debt service, dropping from 30.1% in 2017 to just 6.4% in 2024. This suggests a shift away from short-term debt instruments.
  • Treasury Bonds, which peaked at 14.9% in 2022, also declined to just 5.6% in 2024.
  • By 2021, over 80% of domestic debt service payments were already allocated to FGN Bonds, showing a consistent pattern of prioritisation. The trend has only intensified in subsequent years.
  • The rising dominance of FGN Bonds means Nigeria is locking itself into long-term repayment obligations, potentially increasing the fiscal burden in the future.
  • This trend underscores the need for careful debt management policies to prevent a future where long-term commitments become a burden rather than a stabilising factor. 🚨

Nigeria’s domestic debt service structure has become increasingly dominated by FGN Bonds, which accounted for a staggering 87.9% of total payments in 2024. This is a sharp increase from 66.6% in 2017, reflecting a gradual shift in the government’s debt servicing strategy. The reliance on FGN Bonds has significantly reduced the share of Treasury Bills and Treasury Bonds, which played a more significant role in earlier years.
Between 2017 and 2024, Treasury Bills' share plummeted from 30.1% to just 6.4%, while Treasury Bonds, which peaked at 14.9% in 2022, now make up only 5.6% of the total.

Source:

Debt Management Office (DMO)

Period:

2017 - 2024
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Nigeria set to clear IMF debt by mid-2025 after reducing outstanding balance by 87.5% from March 2023 to March 2025
Key Takeaways:
  • Nigeria’s outstanding debt to the IMF has reduced from SDR 2.45 billion in March 2023 to SDR 306.81 million by March 2025.
  • The country has maintained a consistent quarterly repayment pattern, averaging SDR 306.8 million.
  • This steady repayment trend reflects Nigeria’s commitment to managing its external obligations.
  • At the current repayment rate, Nigeria is positioned to fully clear its IMF obligations by mid-2025.

As of March 31, 2025, the top five countries accounted for 57% of total IMF credit outstanding
Key Takeaways:  
  • Argentina tops the list with SDR 31.1 billion in outstanding IMF credit.
  • The top three borrowers, Argentina, Ukraine, and Egypt, together hold over 45% of total IMF credit.
  • All 15 countries on the list have outstanding credit of at least SDR 1.4 billion.
  • African nations such as Kenya, Angola, Ghana, and Ethiopia rank among the top 15 IMF debtors.
  • The top 10 countries alone account for more than two-thirds of the IMF’s total outstanding credit.

Egypt accounts for one-third of over SDR 26 billion owed by Africa’s top 10 IMF debtors
Key Takeaways:
  • Egypt leads African nations in IMF debt, with SDR 8.63 billion in outstanding credit.
  • The combined debt of these 10 countries represents 24% of the IMF’s total outstanding credit globally.
  • East African nations, Kenya and Ethiopia, hold a combined SDR 4.5 billion in IMF credit.
  • West Africa is strongly represented with Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal, and Cameroon owing more than SDR 7.4 billion collectively.

The cost of borrowing in Africa is increasing, with 27.5% of government revenue going towards debt interest
  • Africa now spends 27.5% of revenue on interest payments, nearly 4 times higher than in 2008.
  • The debt burden is rising faster than economic growth as interest payments as a percentage of GDP grew from 5.4% in 2008 to 8.2% in 2024, showing increasing financial strain.
  • Effective interest rates have more than tripled from 1.4% in 2008 to 5.0% in 2024, making debt less affordable.
  • Between 2008 and 2019, the ratio of interest to revenue rose by 12.2 percentage points, and in five years (2019–2024), it surged by another 8.5 percentage points.
  • As borrowing costs rise, the risk of defaults and fiscal crises in African economies grows, making financial stability a concern.
  • More money spent on debt means less for roads, hospitals, and schools, slowing down long-term economic progress.

South Africa issued $3.5B in Eurobonds in 2024, accounting for 25.6% of the total $13.65B issued by African countries
  • South Africa issued $3.5 billion, making up over a quarter (25.6%) of all issuances on the continent.
  • South Africa, Côte d’Ivoire, and Nigeria issued $8.3 billion, accounting for 61% of Africa’s total Eurobond issuance in 2024.
  • Despite economic uncertainties, Nigeria remains an active player in international markets, issuing $2.2 billion in Eurobonds.
  • Francophone West Africa has a strong presence as Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Benin collectively issued $4.4 billion, highlighting their growing role in Africa’s debt markets.
  • At $0.75 billion and $0.55 billion, respectively, Benin and Cameroon still secured external financing, but at significantly lower levels than their larger counterparts.

A total of 8 African countries have issued the sum of $15.7B in Eurobonds in thirteen months (Jan '24 - Jan '25)
  • African countries issued a total of $15.7 billion in Eurobonds, demonstrating continued reliance on external debt markets.
  • While the first ten months totaled $6.2 billion, November and December alone added $7.5 billion, marking a sharp increase.
  • The total issuance jumped from $6.2 billion in October to $10 billion in November and then $13.7 billion in December, showing a drastic shift in borrowing.
  • Eight African countries drove this activity, as the borrowing is concentrated among key economies.

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