People facing Crisis+ food insecurity in Nigeria, projected Jun–Aug 2026

Key Takeaways

  • 36.3 million people face Crisis-level food insecurity in August 2026, up 33% from November 2025.
  • Nearly 8 in 10 households in the northeast have less than a week's food supply.
  • 58% of people in the northeast have insufficient food consumption.
  • Conflict, displacement and market disruption are deepening the crisis.

Nigeria is facing a sharp deterioration in food security, with 36.3 million people projected to experience Crisis-level food insecurity in August 2026, up 33% from November 2025.

The crisis is starkest in the conflict-hit northeast, where nearly 8 in 10 households have no stock or less than a week's food supply, and insufficient food consumption affects 58% of the population. Market disruption, displacement, and localized cropland losses in insecurity-affected areas are compounding the crisis.

Sources: Cadre Harmonisé (May 2026); WFP mVAM Bulletin (Apr 2026); WFP Cropland Change Analysis (2025).

Source:

Cadre Harmonisé

Period:

August 2026
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Nigeria, Egypt and Madagascar have consistently led Africa’s rice production, with Nigeria recording consistent growth in recent years
  • Nigeria's rice production hit 9.13 million tonnes in 2024, its highest level since 2021.
  • Egypt and Madagascar produced 6.43 and 4.97 million tonnes, respectively, in 2024.
  • Egypt and Madagascar combined produced 11.4 million tonnes, exceeding Nigeria's output.
  • Africa's rice production reached a record 44.8 million tonnes in 2024, up 421% since 1980.
Every food item tracked has at least doubled in price since May 2023
  • Every comparable food item tracked is now at least twice as expensive as it was in May 2023.
  • Nearly half of the selected food items have more than tripled in price since the month before fuel subsidy removal.
  • Unripe plantain recorded the steepest increase, rising by 469% between May 2023 and April 2026.
  • Ripe plantain, yam tuber, and fresh tilapia also saw extreme increases of more than 300%.
  • Even the slowest-rising staples, including frozen chicken, beans, gari, and maize, still more than doubled in price.
Healthy diet costs rose fastest in Nigeria’s North-West over two years
  • Healthy diet costs rose 49% nationally in two years.
  • North-West states recorded the fastest increases.
  • All seven North-West states rose above the national average.
  • Katsina and Kogi recorded the steepest increases, at 98%.
  • Akwa Ibom had the lowest increase, at 5%.
One adult’s monthly healthy diet takes two-thirds of minimum wage
  • One adult’s healthy diet takes 66% of Nigeria’s minimum wage.
  • The national average monthly cost is about ₦46,230 per adult.
  • Ekiti has the highest burden, at 90% of minimum wage.
  • Six states require over 80% of minimum wage for one adult’s healthy diet.
  • Adamawa has the lowest burden, at 43%.
Osun (₦1,867), the state with the highest CoHD is ₦640 more expensive than the lowest CoHD state, Kaduna (₦1,227)
  • Osun (₦1,867) has the highest CoHD, while Kaduna (₦1,227) has the lowest, a gap of ₦640.
  • The national average CoHD stood at ₦1,495 as of December 2024.
  • Southern states, particularly in the South West, record the highest diet costs.
  • Northern states dominate the list of the most affordable places to eat healthy.
  • Rising costs in urban centres like Lagos (₦1,702) and Rivers (₦1,780) reflect the impact of logistics and inflation.
  • The ₦640 state gap shows inequality in dietary access, which can deepen nutrition and welfare disparities.
The implementation of ₦70K minimum wage in Nigeria reduced the cost burden of a healthy diet, dropping it from 124.1% in June to 54.2% in July 2024
  • The share of minimum wage needed to afford a healthy diet fell from 124.1% in June to 54.2% in July 2024, when the minimum wage was increased from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000.
  • Before July, the cost of a healthy diet for a month exceeded 100% of [the] minimum wage, making it unaffordable for minimum-wage earners.
  • The sharpest burden was recorded in June 2024, when households needed their full salary plus 24% extra to eat healthily.
  • Between July and December, affordability worsened slightly from 54.2% to 64.1%, indicating that food prices continued to rise despite the wage boost.
  • The implementation of the ₦70,000 minimum wage in 2024 provided significant relief to Nigerian households struggling with the high cost of eating healthily.
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