Nigeria: For every $1 billion external loan repaid in the past decade, approximately $3 billion was borrowed

Nigeria's debt burden has been a growing concern, with data revealing that for every $1 billion external loan repaid in the past decade, approximately $3 billion was borrowed. Here, we look at how the country has managed its external debt in the past ten years.

Source:

Debt Management Office

Period:

2013 - 2022
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Lagos, Rivers, and four other states account for 52% of all Nigerian states' domestic debt and 40% of their external debt
  • Lagos dominates Nigeria’s subnational debt profile, accounting for 26.1% of domestic debt and 21.8% of external debt.
  • Six states account for 52% of domestic debt.
  • The same group contributes 40% of the external debt
  • Rivers ranks second in domestic debt (9.5%) but has a significantly lower external debt (3.8%).
  • Kaduna emerges as a major external borrower (13.7%) despite not appearing among the top domestic debt states.
Finance & Insurance now makes up 30% of Nigeria’s domestic company income tax, up from 12% in 2022
  • Company income tax collections rose from ₦1.7tn in 2022 to ₦5.0tn in 2025.
  • Finance & Insurance more than doubled its share, from 12.4% to 30.0%.
  • Finance became the largest single sector in the tax mix by 2025.
  • Manufacturing remained important, but its share fell from 27.9% to 17.7%.
  • ICT saw one of the sharpest declines, from 21.6% to 6.5%.
  • Mining & quarrying gained weight, rising from 8.4% to 14.5%.
  • Wholesale & retail also increased, from 3.6% to 7.0%.
  • The tax base became less evenly distributed across sectors.
Nigeria's VAT collections have more than tripled in three years
  • Nigeria’s total VAT rose from ₦2.5tn in 2022 to ₦8.6tn in 2025.
  • VAT collections more than tripled in four years.
  • Local VAT remained the largest source of VAT throughout the period.
  • Local VAT increased from ₦1.5tn to ₦4.5tn.
  • Local VAT averaged 54.4% of total VAT between 2022 and 2025.
  • Import VAT also grew strongly, from ₦521.5bn to ₦2.0tn.
  • Other payment channels rose from ₦510.8bn to ₦2.1tn.
  • VAT growth is increasingly being driven by non-import activity.
Agriculture’s share of Nigeria’s capital imports peaked at 5.46% in 2021 before falling to 0.72% in 2025
  • Agriculture’s share of Nigeria’s capital imports peaked at 5.46% in 2021
  • After 2025, agriculture's share started falling sharply, reaching 0.72% in 2025.
  • Between 2017 and 2021, the sector experienced consistent growth in both value and share.
  • Capital import value peaked at at $489.9 million in 2019.
85 cents of every dollar in capital imported into Nigeria in 2025 went to portfolio investments
  • Nigeria's total capital imports surged to $23.2bn in 2025, the highest level recorded in the entire 2014 to 2025 period.
  • Foreign Portfolio Investment dominated in 2025, claiming 85 cents of every dollar imported, up sharply from 68% in 2024.
  • Foreign Direct Investment has remained consistently weak, never exceeding 20% across all eleven years, and falling to just 4% in 2025.
  • The "Others" category, which peaked at 61% in 2023, has collapsed to just 11% in 2025, reflecting a dramatic shift toward portfolio-driven capital flows
Nigeria's foreign capital inflows nearly reached the 2019 record, but 87% went to banks and financiers
  • Inflows surged from $3.9B in 2023 to $23.2B in 2025, near the all-time record.
  • Banking and financing captured 87% of all inflows.
  • Agriculture got $167M, oil and gas $18M, and construction $6M, .
  • The recovery is real, but it is not yet reaching ordinary Nigerians.
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