Nigeria: For every $1 billion external loan repaid in the past decade, approximately $3 billion was borrowed

Nigeria's debt burden has been a growing concern, with data revealing that for every $1 billion external loan repaid in the past decade, approximately $3 billion was borrowed. Here, we look at how the country has managed its external debt in the past ten years.

Source:

Debt Management Office

Period:

2013 - 2022
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Nigeria holds the third highest interest rate in Africa at 27.5%, as Zimbabwe leads with 35%
  • Zimbabwe has the highest benchmark interest rate in Africa at 35%, exceeding Ghana, the second highest, by 7% points.
  • Nigeria holds the third highest interest rate on the continent at 27.5%, just 0.5% points behind Ghana, signalling aggressive policy intervention.
  • Zimbabwe, Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi, and Egypt have interest rates above 25%, showing a regional pattern of tight monetary conditions.
  • There is a significant drop of over 5% points between Sierra Leone at 24.75% and Angola at 19.5%, marking a clear shift to lower-rate economies below the top tier.
Nigeria ranks 7th among Europe’s crude oil suppliers, peaking at 0.54 million barrels per day
  • The USA leads the suppliers with 1.40 million barrels/day, making it the largest single contributor to the EU’s crude oil imports in 2024.
  • Norway and Kazakhstan follow closely, delivering 1.10M and 1.05M b/d respectively, together accounting for over 24% of the EU’s total imports.
  • Nigeria ranks 7th, contributing 0.54M b/d, which is 5.9% of total EU crude oil imports, ahead of Brazil and the UK.
  • The top 6 suppliers (USA to Iraq) delivered 5.45 million b/d in total, representing nearly 60% of the EU’s crude oil demand.
  • The rest of the world, not listed among the top 10, contributed 2.24M b/d, underscoring the EU’s diversified sourcing strategy.
Netherlands, US, and Germany dominated cocoa imports from 1961 to 2023
  • Netherlands imported the most cocoa beans — 25.48 million tonnes (1961–2023)
  • US (21.1M) and Germany (16.8M) followed in total volume
  • These three countries dominated the top 5 nearly every year
  • Malaysia, UK, France, and Belgium also ranked high over time
  • USSR stayed in the top 10 despite dissolving in 1991
  • Global cocoa imports grew from 1M tonnes in 1961 to nearly 4M in 2023
Between 1961 and 2022, African wine production decreased by 43%, with recent years’ production levels falling below the volume in the 1960s and 1970s
Key Takeaways:
  • African wine production peaked in 1965 at 2.39 million tonnes, the highest level recorded during the entire period.
  • The most dramatic single-year drop occurred between 1965 and 1966, when production fell by 40%, from 2.39 to 1.44 million tonnes.
  • A gradual recovery began in the early 2000s, with production consistently exceeding 1 million tonnes from 2003 onward.
  • The most recent peak occurred in 2021, with production reaching 1.23 million tonnes, a 48.5% decline from the 1965 high.
  • Despite this partial recovery, current production levels remain well below the highs of the 1960s.
  • As of 2022, African wine production stood at 1.16 million tonnes, representing a 43% decrease from 1961.
With a 51.24-point increase, Morocco showed the most significant AIDI growth among the top African economies
  • Morocco's AIDI score rose from 19.08 in 2003 to 70.32 in 2024, indicating substantial infrastructure progress over two decades.
  • Over the past 21 years, Egypt's infrastructure development, as measured by AIDI, has more than tripled.
  • Nigeria ranks 24th in infrastructure (AIDI) despite having the 4th largest GDP in Africa.
  • In 2024, Nigeria’s AIDI score was 25.70, significantly below peers like Morocco (91.43) and Egypt (82.54).
  • Algeria, with a GDP of $260.13B, achieved a strong AIDI score of 70.32, ranking 8th.
  • The AIDI gap highlights that economic size doesn’t guarantee infrastructure strength, underlining the need for intentional investment.
East Africa is heavily represented among the weakest African currencies in 2024, with Somalia leading at 28,118.33 SOS per US$
  • Eight East African nations made the list of the top 15 worst African currencies.
  • Somalia has the weakest African currency in 2024, with an exchange rate of 28,118.33 SOS per US$.
  • Guinea, with 8,613.26 GNF per US$, has the second weakest currency, but is still far behind Somalia.
  • Madagascar, Uganda, and Zimbabwe follow, each with exchange rates between 3,200 and 4,500 LCU per US$.
  • Nigeria’s currency traded at 1,478.97 Naira per US$, about 20 times stronger than Somalia's currency.
  • Despite economic turmoil, South Sudan’s currency remained below 2,200 SSP per US$, performing better than Somalia and Guinea.
  • The gap between Somalia and the rest of Africa’s currencies highlights extreme economic pressures unique to the Somali economy in 2024.
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