More than half of the Federal Government of Nigeria’s domestic debt services are services on FGN bonds

Key takeaways:

  • FGN Bonds dominate Nigeria’s domestic debt service payments, rising from 66.6% in 2017 to 87.9% in 2024. This reflects a growing reliance on long-term debt financing.
  • Treasury Bills have seen a sharp decline in their share of domestic debt service, dropping from 30.1% in 2017 to just 6.4% in 2024. This suggests a shift away from short-term debt instruments.
  • Treasury Bonds, which peaked at 14.9% in 2022, also declined to just 5.6% in 2024.
  • By 2021, over 80% of domestic debt service payments were already allocated to FGN Bonds, showing a consistent pattern of prioritisation. The trend has only intensified in subsequent years.
  • The rising dominance of FGN Bonds means Nigeria is locking itself into long-term repayment obligations, potentially increasing the fiscal burden in the future.
  • This trend underscores the need for careful debt management policies to prevent a future where long-term commitments become a burden rather than a stabilising factor. 🚨

Nigeria’s domestic debt service structure has become increasingly dominated by FGN Bonds, which accounted for a staggering 87.9% of total payments in 2024. This is a sharp increase from 66.6% in 2017, reflecting a gradual shift in the government’s debt servicing strategy. The reliance on FGN Bonds has significantly reduced the share of Treasury Bills and Treasury Bonds, which played a more significant role in earlier years.
Between 2017 and 2024, Treasury Bills' share plummeted from 30.1% to just 6.4%, while Treasury Bonds, which peaked at 14.9% in 2022, now make up only 5.6% of the total.

Source:

Debt Management Office (DMO)

Period:

2017 - 2024
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Nigeria secured a record $2.8 billion loan from Chinese lenders in 2017
  • Nigeria has received $9.4 billion dollars in Chinese loans across different sectors since 2002
  • The highest loan inflow was in 2017, with $2.8 billion, mainly for transportation and energy
  • Transportation projects received the most funding, with notable amounts in 2017 ($2 billion) and 2019 ($1 billion)
  • Loan inflows dropped significantly after 2017, with no borrowings between 2020 and 2022, and $973 million in 2023

Transportation accounts for 65% of Nigeria’s loans from China
  • Transportation received $6.2 billion dollars, which accounts for 65% of all Chinese loans to Nigeria
  • Energy projects received $1.2 billion, highlighting China’s role in Nigeria’s power infrastructure
  • Industry and trade/services had the least funding at $368.2 million dollars, reflecting lower Chinese loan priorities in these areas
  • China’s loans to Nigeria between 2000 and 2023 have largely focused on infrastructure development, particularly in transportation and energy

Energy has attracted the largest amount of Chinese loans to Africa
  • Energy attracted the largest share of Chinese loans to Africa, totalling $62.7 billion across 207 loans
  • Transportation received $52.7 billion—the second-highest amount—through 336 loans, making it the most frequently financed sector
  • Agriculture ($2.4 billion) and education ($2 billion) received relatively low funding, reflecting China’s focus on infrastructure
  • Smaller sectors like non-energy mining and services/social protection had minimal Chinese loan activity

Afrexim Research projections show that long-term debt will continue to dominate, making up 76.4% of Africa’s total debt by 2028
  • By 2028, 76.4% of Africa’s debt will be long-term, up from 75% in 2023.
  • The share of long-term debt will consistently rise each year.
  • Short-term and IMF debts will shrink to 23.6% by 2028, indicating reduced reliance on short-term borrowing.
  • The trend towards long-term debt reduces the immediate financial strain on governments but requires careful management to avoid excessive interest accumulation.
  • Countries must ensure that extended debt periods are matched with productive investments to justify future repayments.
  • A higher share of long-term debt could expose African economies to potential interest rate hikes in the future.
  • While long-term borrowing offers temporary relief, debt sustainability remains a key issue that policymakers must address.

11 African nations constituted 69% of the continent's total external debt stock as of H1 2024
  • Just 11 countries hold 69% of Africa’s total external debt.
  • South Africa (14%) carries the highest share.
  • Egypt (13%) and Nigeria (8%) are among the top three.
  • Countries from Northern and Southern regions hold over 30% of Africa’s external debt.
  • Many of these nations rely on debt to drive development, but without efficient utilisation, rising debt could become a major drag on future progress.

The number of debtors backed by movable assets owing financial institutions in Nigeria declined significantly from 2017 to 2018.
  • The number of collateral-backed debtors fell by almost 50% from 2017 to 2018
  • The number of debtors began increasing consistently from 2019 to 2021
  • The highest post-2018 debt level was recorded in 2023, reaching 7,390, which is close to pre-2018 figures.
  • The decline in 2018 could indicate cautious borrowing or stricter regulations, while the rise afterward suggests a possible easing of credit access.

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