In January 2025, the food inflation rate dropped to 26.08% from 39.84% in December 2024

Key takeaways:

  • The inflation rate experienced a growth rate of 60.5% from May 2023 to December 2024.
  • The May 2024 food inflation rate grew by 15.84% points higher than May 2023 levels.
  • The most significant monthly increase occurred in February 2024, when food inflation rose by 2.51% from January 2024.
  • Brief periods of relief were observed in July, August, and December 2024, when the rates showed slight declines.
  • The food inflation rate dropped by 13.76% between December 2024 and January 2025 due to CPI rebasing to 2024 from 2009.

Nigeria's food inflation trend has shown alarming growth since the economic policy shifts of May 2023. Starting at 24.82% in May 2023, when fuel subsidies were removed and the naira devalued, food inflation grew steadily to reach 39.84% by December 2024. There was a significant drop in January 2025 due to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing from 2009 to 2024.

From July 2024 to August 2024, the food inflation rate saw a temporary minor decrease before rising again in September 2024. December 2024 also witnessed a slight drop in the food inflation rate, falling by 0.08% compared to November 2024.

The year-over-year comparison highlights the intensity of the inflation crisis, with December 2024 food inflation standing at 5.91% points above December 2023 levels. February 2024 marked a particularly challenging month, with the largest month-on-month increase of the entire period at 2.51%.

Source:

National Bureau of Statistics

Period:

May 2023 - January 2025
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The inflation rate of all items, excluding farm produce and energy, reached 29.28% as of December 2024, a 9.45% increase from May 2023
Key takeaways:
  • February 2024 saw the largest month-on-month rise in inflation, climbing nearly 2% from 23.59% in January 2024.
  • Nigeria experienced brief periods of relief, with slight drops in core inflation during November 2023 and September 2024.
  • From May 2023 to December 2024, the inflation rate fluctuated within the 20% to 30% range.
  • December 2023 registered the highest inflation rate during the first eight months of the observed period.
  • The core inflation rate dropped to 22.59% in January 2025 from 29.28% in December 2024 due to the Consumer Price Index rebasing from 2009 to 2024.
The inflation rate in Nigeria rose from 22.41% in May 2023 to 34.80% by December 2024 and dropped to 24.48% in January 2025
Key takeaways:
  • Amidst the overall upward rise in inflation since May 2023, Nigeria experienced a brief relief with slight declines between June and September 2024.
  • The inflation rate in May 2024 was 11.54% points higher than that of June 2023.
  • The inflation rate in Nigeria increased by approximately 55% from May 2023 to December 2024.
  • In December 2024, the inflation rate increased by about 4.9% points when compared to January 2024.
  • Between December 2024 and January 2025, the inflation rate dropped by 10.32%.
  • The National Bureau of Statistics rebased the Consumer Price Index from 2009 to 2024 in January 2025.
Four African nations are in the top 10 globally for the highest inflation rates, averaging 39.23%
  • With 120% and 118% inflation rates, respectively, the two top nations are experiencing economic meltdowns, making essentials like food and housing almost unattainable.
  • With 57.5% inflation, Zimbabwe continues its battle against economic instability, making it the 4th highest in the world and the worst in Africa.
  • The fact that several countries exceed the global average of 7.27% by 4x to 16x highlights the severe economic strain facing multiple regions.
  • Countries with inflation above 30% risk prolonged economic instability as businesses struggle to survive and citizens face rising poverty levels.
Nigeria's inflation rate stood at 34.80%, making it the African nation with the third-highest inflation rate in 2024
  • With 57.50% inflation, Zimbabwe’s economy is experiencing an extreme price surge, making it the most inflation-affected country in Africa.
  • At 34.80%, Nigeria is battling one of its worst inflation crises in decades, severely impacting food prices, transportation, and living costs.
  • The fact that seven out of ten countries on this list have inflation rates that double or even quadruple the African average shows the depth of the inflation crisis.
  • While their inflation rates (between 16% and 24%), as seen in Ghana, Ethiopia, Zambia, and the Congo, are lower than the top three, they still exceed the sustainable threshold for economic stability.
Some organisations project that Nigeria's 2025 inflation rate will be lower than in 2024
  • Some organisations project that Nigeria's 2025 inflation rate will be lower than 2024's 33.2%.
  • Projections for 2025 range from the AfDB's optimistic 20.7% to Meristem's bearish 33.99%, reflecting variations in the expected average annual inflation rate.
  • International organisations have more optimistic projections on Nigeria's average inflation rate in 2025 compared to local organisations.
Inflation in Africa’s largest economies as of October 2024
Inflation levels across Africa's largest economies range from low and stable in Morocco to high and concerning in Nigeria. Egypt and Nigeria have seen inflation rise to record levels, driven partly by currency devaluations in both countries. Nigeria has not only fallen from its top spot as the continent's largest economy, but it now holds the spot for the highest inflation rate amongst the top ten economies by GDP.
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