After years of volatility, Nigeria’s crude oil production has increased in four consecutive quarters, rising to 1.68 mbpd in Q2 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Production dipped sharply in 2022, with the steepest quarterly decline of –16.08% in Q3, before recovering at year-end.
  • 2023 marked a rebound year, highlighted by strong quarterly growth of 18.85% in Q3, lifting production back above 1.5 mbpd.
  • 2024 showed relative stability, with modest fluctuations; production only briefly fell below 1.5 mbpd before gradually recovering.
  • By Q2 2025, output hit 1.68 mbpd, the highest in the series, supported by consistent growth in three straight quarters.

Nigeria’s crude oil production between Q1 2022 and Q2 2025 reflects a cycle of volatility followed by gradual recovery. In 2022, production struggled, dropping from 1.49 mbpd in Q1 to just 1.20 mbpd in Q3—the lowest point of the period—before closing the year with a partial rebound. The following year, 2023, saw a strong recovery, particularly in Q3 when output surged by nearly 19% quarter-on-quarter, pushing production back toward pre-decline levels.

In 2024, output growth was more subdued, fluctuating within a narrow range as Nigeria stabilised production despite challenges from pipeline issues and OPEC quota pressures. Entering 2025, the sector gained momentum again: three consecutive quarters of positive growth lifted production to 1.68 mbpd by Q2, its highest point in over three years. This trend suggests Nigeria may be consolidating gains from reforms and improved security in oil-producing regions, signalling cautious optimism for sustained output.

Source:

National bureau of statistics

Period:

Q1 2022 to Q2 2025
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