Africa's total external debt service is projected to decrease by over $39 billion between 2024 and 2029

Africa’s external debt service burden peaked at an estimated $102.6 billion in 2024, but the outlook suggests a sharp decline over the next five years. Between 2024 and 2029, the total amount that African countries are expected to spend annually servicing their external debts will fall by more than $39 billion (according to projections of the International Debt Statistics), signalling a shift in the continent’s debt dynamics. After more than a decade of steady growth in debt servicing costs, this marks a potential turning point.

One of the most dramatic changes in the chart is the YoY change in 2025, which shows a steep -13.5% drop, the sharpest single-year decrease over 20 years. While the figures from 2025 to 2029 are forecasts, they reflect changing debt maturity schedules, slowing new borrowing, or possibly even early repayments. For countries that have faced pressure on public finances, a reduced debt service burden could provide much-needed fiscal space for investment in social infrastructure and economic recovery efforts.

The trend also reflects how external debt obligations evolved. From $18.5 billion in 2009, payments steadily climbed to nearly $69 billion by 2021, and remained high through 2022. The spike to $102.6 billion in 2024 represents an extraordinary jump, driven by past borrowing and rising repayment schedules.

Source:

World Bank - IDS

Period:

2009-2029
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Nigeria’s public debt has soared since 2010, with domestic debt up 2,020% and external debt up 1,000% by mid 2025
  • Nigeria’s domestic debt jumped from ₦3.8 trillion in 2010 to ₦80.55 trillion by mid-2025.
  • Foreign debts increased from $4.27 billion in 2010 to $46.98 billion in 2025, reflecting growing reliance on external financing.
  • Debt accumulation surged notably after 2020, coinciding with pandemic spending, naira depreciation, and higher fiscal deficits.
  • The widening gap between revenue and debt service raises questions about Nigeria’s long-term debt sustainability.
Borno records lowest domestic debt in North-East Nigeria at ₦22.3 billion in Q2 2025
  • The six North-Eastern states collectively owe around ₦450 billion in domestic debt as of Q2 2025.
  • Borno State maintains the lowest debt in the region at ₦22.3 billion, showing signs of controlled borrowing amid post-conflict rebuilding.
  • Bauchi State has the highest domestic debt burden of ₦143.6 billion, accounting for about 31% of the region’s total.
  • The top three states, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe, collectively account for more than two-thirds of the zone’s total subnational debt stock.
In just six months, Nigeria spent over $2.3 billion servicing external debts
  • Nigeria paid $816.3 million to the International Monetary Fund, accounting for over 35% of total external debt service payments.
  • Eurobond payments followed closely, with $687.8 million paid, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on commercial debt instruments.
  • Multilateral lenders like IDA and AfDB collectively received about $463 million, signalling continued exposure to concessional financing.
  • China’s share shrinking: Payments to Chinese lenders (EXIM + CDB) totalled $235.6 million, less than 11% of total outflows, suggesting reduced Chinese debt servicing in H1 2025.
Over 60% of Nigeria’s ₦1.7 trillion domestic debt service in Q2 2025 was spent on Federal Government Bonds
  • FGN bonds dominated: ₦1.07 trillion went to Federal Government Bonds, accounting for about 63% of total domestic debt servicing.
  • Treasury bills followed: Payments on NTBs reached ₦537.9 billion, making up roughly 31% of the total.
  • Sukuk and promissory notes together cost ₦90.8 billion, reflecting Nigeria’s mix of infrastructure and settlement instruments.
  • Green and savings bonds remained minimal, together below ₦5 billion, showing limited traction for retail and sustainability-focused debt.
93% of Nigeria's public debt is owed by the Federal Government
  • The Federal Government’s share of total public debt rose from 79.5% in 2019 to 92.6% in 2025.
  • States’ share has more than halved, from 20.5% to 7.4% in six years.
  • Total public debt grew from $83.9 billion to $99.7 billion, peaking at $113.4 billion in 2023.
  • Nigeria’s debt burden is increasingly concentrated at the centre, amplifying federal repayment risks and reducing fiscal independence for states.
60% of Nigeria's ₦152.4 trillion public debt is owed to domestic lenders
  • Total public debt hits ₦152.4 trillion, marking another milestone in Nigeria’s expanding debt profile.
  • Domestic debt leads at ₦80.5 trillion, making up about 53% of total obligations.
  • External debt stands at ₦71.8 trillion, equivalent to roughly 47%, reflecting Nigeria’s ongoing exposure to foreign lenders.
  • The data signals growing fiscal dependence on local markets, as authorities seek to limit exchange rate risks while still financing deficits.
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