Oil & Gas - Intelpoint

Key Takeaways:

Despite recent gains, Oando Plc's earnings before tax have declined by 222% over the past decade.
Major losses occurred in 2019 and 2020, with a rebound in 2021 and 2023.
The company demonstrated remarkable resilience by recovering to ₦103 billion profit in 2023.
The earnings before tax in 2024 fell by 54% from 2023.
The year-on-year growth rate from 2015 to 2024 was shown to be negative despite recording ₦47.8 billion in 2024, as against -₦39.1 billion in 2015.

Only 4 countries have ever topped global oil production since 1973: the US, USSR, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
The USSR and Saudi Arabia each led for 17 years, while Russia held 9 and the U.S. reclaimed the top with 8 years, mostly after the shale boom.
Top producers have peaked at 9–12 million barrels/day, but the US once dropped as low as 5 million in the 2000s.
Nigeria peaked at 2.5 million barrels/day in 2005 and 2011, but never reached the top five.
Global crude oil production grew by over 26 million barrels per day between 1973 and 2023—an increase of nearly 47% over 50 years.

Key takeaways:

Despite a profit after tax record of ₦65.5 billion in 2024, Oando Plc recorded a negative growth rate from 2015.
The company faced significant profit losses for several years, with notable improvements in 2021 and 2024.
Profit after tax fluctuated, with a notable improvement in 2024, reaching ₦65.49 million.
The year-on-year growth rate of 148% in 2022 indicates great market positioning.
From ₦477.1 billion in 2020 to ₦4.1 trillion in 2024, Oando Plc's revenues increased by 764%.

Key takeaways:

Seplat’s revenue steadily increased from ₦112.97 billion in 2015 to ₦1.65 trillion in 2024.
The difference between revenue and profit after tax in 2024 is notably broader than in previous years.
Profitability varied over the years, with losses recorded in 2016 and 2020 but consistent recoveries during other periods.
The year 2024 saw the company's peak revenue (₦1.65 trillion) and profit (₦214.25 billion).

Dangote first announced the refinery in 2013 with a $9 billion plan, securing $3.3 billion in funding.
The estimated cost grew to $15 billion in 2017, as planned refining capacity increased to 650,000 barrels per day.
By 2023, the refinery was finally commissioned, after its total cost surged past $20 billion.
In December 2023, the first crude supply of 1 million barrels arrived, marking the start of operations.
By 2024, the refinery began producing diesel and jet fuel, with 6 million barrels received for processing.

Key takeaways:

The average kerosene price increased by approximately 70.5%, rising from ₦1,206.1 in May 2023 to ₦2,056.4 in December 2024.
Prices witnessed a moderate growth rate of 13% from May to December 2023, while the rate of increase escalated sharply in 2024, with a rise of 50.9% from January to December 2024.
A notable acceleration in prices began in July 2024, when the price per litre first surpassed ₦1,700.
The average price in December 2024 (₦2,056.4) was 51% greater than the average price in December 2023 (₦1,362.3).

Key Takeaways:

The northern regions of Nigeria experienced higher prices than the southern regions, except for the North East.
The North Central region had the highest average kerosene cost, while the South East reported the lowest.
There is a significant price difference of about ₦483.7 between the region with the highest price (North Central) and the region with the lowest (South East).
Households in the North Central region will likely spend a larger portion of their budget on kerosene than those in the South East region.

- Akwa Ibom, Delta, Rivers, and Bayelsa collectively account for nearly 85% of Nigeria’s crude oil production.

- Their impressive output reflects decades of focused investment and advanced production infrastructure in the Niger Delta.

- The disparity between these high-producing states and lower-performing regions like Abia and Imo highlights significant regional imbalances.

- The untapped potential in states with lower outputs presents promising opportunities for strategic development and future growth

Key takeaways:

In December 2024, the top five states with the highest average kerosene prices were: Abuja (₦2,950.0), Akwa Ibom (₦2,538.3), Kaduna (₦2,510.6), Cross River (₦2,430.7), and Sokoto (₦2,400.1).
Abuja recorded the highest average price of kerosene in December 2024, while Borno state recorded the lowest price.
The price of kerosene per litre ranged from ₦1,520.4 to ₦2,950 across Nigerian states in December 2024.
The percentage difference in the price of kerosene across Nigeria states in December 2024 is approximately 63.9%.

In February 2016, petrol was at its lowest price of ₦99.80 per litre, marking the last time fuel prices remained below ₦100.
By November 2024, petrol prices soared to an all-time high of ₦1,214.17 per litre, reflecting the compounded effects of inflation, currency depreciation, and global oil price volatility.
Over the nine-year period, the average petrol price stood at ₦272.65 per litre.
Between January 2016 and December 2024, petrol prices increased by ₦1,079.52, a staggering 984.96% rise, emphasising the long-term upward trajectory influenced by economic challenges, subsidy removals, and fluctuating exchange rates.
The most volatile period recorded a month-to-month price surge of over 129.23%.

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