Oil & Gas - Intelpoint

Dangote Refinery’s fuel price hits an all-time-high, rising from ₦699 to ₦1,175 in four months

Fuel prices from Dangote Refinery reached an all-time high of ₦1,175 per litre in March 2026. The lowest recorded price in the period was ₦699 per litre in December 2025, showing a wide price swing. The jump from ₦699 to ₦1,175 happened in roughly four months.

Prices earlier in the timeline hovered mostly between ₦820 and ₦987 during late 2024 and much of 2025.
The December 2025 price cut was aimed at making locally refined fuel more competitive against imports.
After the price drop, fuel costs began rising again in early 2026, reaching ₦995 by early March before climbing further.
Global geopolitical tensions affecting oil markets contributed to the upward pressure on prices.

In the last one year, petrol prices in Nigeria fluctuated, reaching the maximum average price (₦1,262) in March 2025, before dropping gradually

Petrol prices in Nigeria rose by 52% between August 2024 (₦830.5) and March 2025 (₦1,261.7).
The highest monthly increase was in September 2024 (+24.1%), while the sharpest drop came in April 2025 (-17.1%).
By July 2025, prices had eased to ₦1,025, still 23% higher than a year earlier.
NNPC retail outlets offered significantly lower prices than the national average, with Abuja as low as ₦880 at the March 2025 peak.
Dangote Refinery offered relatively competitive pricing, ranging from ₦840 to ₦899, creating an alternative supply option.

Nigeria remained Africa’s top oil producer in 2024, contributing over 22% of the continent's production

Nigeria led with 78.9 Mtoe, accounting for over 22% of Africa’s total oil output.
Algeria (59.3 Mtoe) and Angola (57.4 Mtoe) followed closely; the three top producers together supplied] 56% of the continent’s oil.
Africa’s total oil production was 345.5 Mtoe, just 7.6% of the global total (4,542.7 Mtoe).
The top 5 producers accounted for over 80% of Africa’s oil.

Libya tops list as African fuel prices remain below $1 in the top 9 African nations

Libya maintains its position as the cheapest fuel market in Africa with just $0.028 per litre.
Nine out of ten countries have fuel prices under $1 per litre, signalling widespread affordability across much of the continent.
Nigeria, despite partial subsidy reforms, still ranks among the cheapest with fuel priced at $0.586 per litre.
DR Congo is the only country in the top 10 where fuel costs exceed $1 per litre, standing at $1.039.
Ethiopia and Liberia are the only non-oil-producing countries among Africa’s top 10 cheapest fuel markets.

Petrol prices surged by nearly 1000% in 9 years

In February 2016, petrol was at its lowest price of ₦99.80 per litre, marking the last time fuel prices remained below ₦100.
By November 2024, petrol prices soared to an all-time high of ₦1,214.17 per litre, reflecting the compounded effects of inflation, currency depreciation, and global oil price volatility.
Over the nine-year period, the average petrol price stood at ₦272.65 per litre.
Between January 2016 and December 2024, petrol prices increased by ₦1,079.52, a staggering 984.96% rise, emphasising the long-term upward trajectory influenced by economic challenges, subsidy removals, and fluctuating exchange rates.
The most volatile period recorded a month-to-month price surge of over 129.23%.

Nigeria’s 2023 fuel imports declined by 13.7%, the biggest decline since 2015

In 2023, Nigeria saw a 17% reduction in petrol supply as imports fell by nearly 14% from 23.5 billion litres in 2022 to 20.3 billion litres. The removal of the fuel subsidy in May 2023 led to higher prices and lower demand, especially in the second half of the year. The Dangote refinery’s rising output could shape future supply.

NNPC has recorded ₦6.8 trillion profit since 2020

Since 2020, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has seen a 1,048% profit increase, totalling ₦6.8 trillion over four years. From nearly eliminating losses in 2019, NNPC achieved a 16,982% profit surge in 2020. The growth persisted with 135% in 2021 and 278% in 2022. Despite a steady 29% increase in 2023, rising debts and fuel scarcity cast doubt on the sustainability of this success.

Five African countries accounted for 61% of the continent's daily oil consumption in 2022

In 2022, Egypt, South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria, and Morocco collectively consumed an average of 2.712 million barrels of oil per day (Mb/d), 61% of the continent's daily oil consumption (4.478 Mb/d). African countries consumed 4.7% of the global usage (99.8 Mb/d). Egypt used the most (850.5 thousand barrels per day (Kb/d)), followed by South Africa (601.2 Kb/d) and Nigeria (514.5 Kb/d).