Oil & Gas - Intelpoint

Key takeaways:

As of January to June 2025, Nigeria had nine operational refineries.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery is the largest, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The total combined capacity of all functional refineries is almost 975,000 bpd.
Government-owned refineries, Warri, Kaduna, and Port Harcourt (old), collectively have a capacity of 295,000 bpd.
Out of 27 licensed refineries by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), only nine were operational during this period.
Other operational refineries such as Aradel, OPAC, Edo, Waltersmith, and Duport Midstream collectively have a capacity of 29,500 bpd.

Only 4 African countries ever crossed 1 million b/d: Libya, Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola.
Libya was Africa’s top producer in the 1970s and 2000s. At its peak, Libya did over 3 million b/d. No other African country has touched that.

Nigeria peaked in 2005 with 2.5 million b/d. But since then, it’s been unstable due to theft and pipeline issues.

Angola and Algeria have stayed around or above 1 million b/d for long periods, especially post-2000.
Despite oil discoveries, most African countries never got close to 1 million b/d: countries like Chad, Sudan, and Gabon, while some peaked under 500k.

Key Takeaways:

Despite recent gains, Oando Plc's earnings before tax have declined by 222% over the past decade.
Major losses occurred in 2019 and 2020, with a rebound in 2021 and 2023.
The company demonstrated remarkable resilience by recovering to ₦103 billion profit in 2023.
The earnings before tax in 2024 fell by 54% from 2023.
The year-on-year growth rate from 2015 to 2024 was shown to be negative despite recording ₦47.8 billion in 2024, as against -₦39.1 billion in 2015.

Only 4 countries have ever topped global oil production since 1973: the US, USSR, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
The USSR and Saudi Arabia each led for 17 years, while Russia held 9 and the U.S. reclaimed the top with 8 years, mostly after the shale boom.
Top producers have peaked at 9–12 million barrels/day, but the US once dropped as low as 5 million in the 2000s.
Nigeria peaked at 2.5 million barrels/day in 2005 and 2011, but never reached the top five.
Global crude oil production grew by over 26 million barrels per day between 1973 and 2023—an increase of nearly 47% over 50 years.

Key takeaways:

Despite a profit after tax record of ₦65.5 billion in 2024, Oando Plc recorded a negative growth rate from 2015.
The company faced significant profit losses for several years, with notable improvements in 2021 and 2024.
Profit after tax fluctuated, with a notable improvement in 2024, reaching ₦65.49 million.
The year-on-year growth rate of 148% in 2022 indicates great market positioning.
From ₦477.1 billion in 2020 to ₦4.1 trillion in 2024, Oando Plc's revenues increased by 764%.

Key takeaways:

Seplat’s revenue steadily increased from ₦112.97 billion in 2015 to ₦1.65 trillion in 2024.
The difference between revenue and profit after tax in 2024 is notably broader than in previous years.
Profitability varied over the years, with losses recorded in 2016 and 2020 but consistent recoveries during other periods.
The year 2024 saw the company's peak revenue (₦1.65 trillion) and profit (₦214.25 billion).

Dangote first announced the refinery in 2013 with a $9 billion plan, securing $3.3 billion in funding.
The estimated cost grew to $15 billion in 2017, as planned refining capacity increased to 650,000 barrels per day.
By 2023, the refinery was finally commissioned, after its total cost surged past $20 billion.
In December 2023, the first crude supply of 1 million barrels arrived, marking the start of operations.
By 2024, the refinery began producing diesel and jet fuel, with 6 million barrels received for processing.

Key takeaways:

The average kerosene price increased by approximately 70.5%, rising from ₦1,206.1 in May 2023 to ₦2,056.4 in December 2024.
Prices witnessed a moderate growth rate of 13% from May to December 2023, while the rate of increase escalated sharply in 2024, with a rise of 50.9% from January to December 2024.
A notable acceleration in prices began in July 2024, when the price per litre first surpassed ₦1,700.
The average price in December 2024 (₦2,056.4) was 51% greater than the average price in December 2023 (₦1,362.3).

Key Takeaways:

The northern regions of Nigeria experienced higher prices than the southern regions, except for the North East.
The North Central region had the highest average kerosene cost, while the South East reported the lowest.
There is a significant price difference of about ₦483.7 between the region with the highest price (North Central) and the region with the lowest (South East).
Households in the North Central region will likely spend a larger portion of their budget on kerosene than those in the South East region.

- Akwa Ibom, Delta, Rivers, and Bayelsa collectively account for nearly 85% of Nigeria’s crude oil production.

- Their impressive output reflects decades of focused investment and advanced production infrastructure in the Niger Delta.

- The disparity between these high-producing states and lower-performing regions like Abia and Imo highlights significant regional imbalances.

- The untapped potential in states with lower outputs presents promising opportunities for strategic development and future growth

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