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Mauritius has the strongest productive capacity in Africa — ahead of Seychelles and South Africa
  • Mauritius leads Africa on the Productive Capacities Index with a score of 55.02, ranking 56th globally.
  • Seychelles, South Africa, and Cape Verde complete Africa’s top four, but none enters the global top 50.
  • Nigeria ranks much lower at 167th globally, with a score of 30.68, despite being one of Africa’s largest economies.
  • The ranking shows that economic size does not always translate into stronger productive foundations like human capital, ICT, energy, transport, and institutions.

Two-thirds of IDA’s commitments in one year went to Africa, led by Nigeria’s $3.1bn
  • Africa received 66% of IDA’s FY2025 commitments.
  • Africa’s total IDA allocation was $22.4 billion out of $33.8 billion.
  • Nigeria was the largest borrower from the DA globally, with $3.1 billion in loans.
  • Bangladesh ranked second with $3 billion.
  • Six of the top ten borrowers were African countries.
  • Nigeria accounted for 9.3% of total FY2025 IDA commitments.

Oyo has reduced external debt by 36% and domestic debt by 22% under Makinde
  • Oyo reduced external and domestic debt by the end of 2025.
  • External debt fell faster than domestic debt.
  • External debt declined more consistently over the period.
  • Oyo’s local debt peaked around 2022–2023 before falling back.
  • The state appears to have prioritised reducing FX exposure.

Africa has been the world's biggest World Bank borrower since 2017, owing $152 billion as of 2024
  • Africa has been the world's biggest World Bank borrower since 2017, and the gap is widening.
  • Three crises drove it: an infrastructure gap, the 2014 commodity crash, and COVID-19.
  • The World Bank leaned in deliberately — 66% of all IDA funds went to Africa in 2025 alone.
  • It's not really "Africa's debt" — it's Nigeria's, Kenya's, Ethiopia's, Egypt's, Tanzania's, and Morocco's.
  • Every other region is slowing down, but Africa's curve is still climbing.

Obasanjo led Nigeria's biggest GDP per capita rise at 268% in 8 years
  • Nigeria’s GDP per capita rose strongly from 1999 to 2014, then reversed.
  • The 2014 peak remains the defining turning point.
  • Obasanjo’s years show the fastest sustained climb from a very low base.
  • Yar’Adua’s short tenure still maintained upward momentum.
  • Jonathan’s period delivered the peak level, not the fastest growth rate.
  • Buhari’s tenure marks the longest clear decline in GDP per capita.
  • Tinubu’s period begins with another sharp fall.

Under Sanwo-Olu, Lagos cut its external debt and more than doubled its domestic debt
  • Lagos cut external debt, but increased domestic debt.
  • The drop in external debt was meaningful, but the rise in domestic debt was much larger.
  • Stronger IGR gave Lagos more room to borrow and repay.
  • The state chose local funding over heavier dollar exposure.

Lagos's external debt has reduced by nearly three times more than the other six states combined
  • Lagos's debt reduction is larger than the other six combined.
  • Oyo posted the fastest reduction rate.
  • The biggest percentage cut did not equal the biggest dollar cut.
  • Debt reduction was concentrated, not broad-based.
  • Higher state revenues likely created room for repayments.
  • Lagos had the strongest fiscal capacity among the states shown.
  • Smaller debt stocks made percentage declines easier for some states.

Northern states have accounted for 12 of the 15 fastest-growing external debts in Nigeria since June 2023
  • All but four states increased their external debt between June 2023 and December 2025.
  • Northern states account for roughly 70% of the $1.34 billion added by states nationally.
  • Katsina recorded the highest growth in both absolute terms ($150 million) and rate (+296%).
  • 12 of the 15 fastest-growing state debts are in the north.
  • Lagos, Nigeria's largest debtor at $1.17 billion outstanding, was one of only four states that reduced its debt.
  • Kaduna carries the second-heaviest debt load at $684 million, despite a relatively modest 20% growth rate.

Alex Otti’s administration reduced Abia's domestic debt by 66%, with external debt rising by 14%
  • Abia’s domestic debt dropped by 66% between 2023 and 2025.
  • The state reduced domestic debt by about ₦94 billion.
  • Debt fell from roughly ₦138 billion to about ₦48.5 billion within two and a half years.
  • About ₦72 billion of inherited debt was cleared early in the administration.
  • External debt increased by 14% (+$12.9 million) over the same period.

Under Umo Eno, Akwa Ibom’s domestic debt fell 41.5%, from ₦138.6bn to ₦48.5bn
  • Akwa Ibom’s domestic debt fell 41.5% over the period, from ₦138.6 billion to ₦48.5 billion.
  • External debt was almost stable, slipping just 0.9%.
  • The sharpest debt adjustment happened in local-currency obligations, not foreign debt.
  • The highest domestic debt level during the period was in December 2023.

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