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Obasanjo led Nigeria's biggest GDP per capita rise at 268% in 8 years
  • Nigeria’s GDP per capita rose strongly from 1999 to 2014, then reversed.
  • The 2014 peak remains the defining turning point.
  • Obasanjo’s years show the fastest sustained climb from a very low base.
  • Yar’Adua’s short tenure still maintained upward momentum.
  • Jonathan’s period delivered the peak level, not the fastest growth rate.
  • Buhari’s tenure marks the longest clear decline in GDP per capita.
  • Tinubu’s period begins with another sharp fall.

Under Sanwo-Olu, Lagos cut its external debt and more than doubled its domestic debt
  • Lagos cut external debt, but increased domestic debt.
  • The drop in external debt was meaningful, but the rise in domestic debt was much larger.
  • Stronger IGR gave Lagos more room to borrow and repay.
  • The state chose local funding over heavier dollar exposure.

Lagos's external debt has reduced by nearly three times more than the other six states combined
  • Lagos's debt reduction is larger than the other six combined.
  • Oyo posted the fastest reduction rate.
  • The biggest percentage cut did not equal the biggest dollar cut.
  • Debt reduction was concentrated, not broad-based.
  • Higher state revenues likely created room for repayments.
  • Lagos had the strongest fiscal capacity among the states shown.
  • Smaller debt stocks made percentage declines easier for some states.

Northern states have accounted for 12 of the 15 fastest-growing external debts in Nigeria since June 2023
  • All but four states increased their external debt between June 2023 and December 2025.
  • Northern states account for roughly 70% of the $1.34 billion added by states nationally.
  • Katsina recorded the highest growth in both absolute terms ($150 million) and rate (+296%).
  • 12 of the 15 fastest-growing state debts are in the north.
  • Lagos, Nigeria's largest debtor at $1.17 billion outstanding, was one of only four states that reduced its debt.
  • Kaduna carries the second-heaviest debt load at $684 million, despite a relatively modest 20% growth rate.

Alex Otti’s administration reduced Abia's domestic debt by 66%, with external debt rising by 14%
  • Abia’s domestic debt dropped by 66% between 2023 and 2025.
  • The state reduced domestic debt by about ₦94 billion.
  • Debt fell from roughly ₦138 billion to about ₦48.5 billion within two and a half years.
  • About ₦72 billion of inherited debt was cleared early in the administration.
  • External debt increased by 14% (+$12.9 million) over the same period.

Under Umo Eno, Akwa Ibom’s domestic debt fell 41.5%, from ₦138.6bn to ₦48.5bn
  • Akwa Ibom’s domestic debt fell 41.5% over the period, from ₦138.6 billion to ₦48.5 billion.
  • External debt was almost stable, slipping just 0.9%.
  • The sharpest debt adjustment happened in local-currency obligations, not foreign debt.
  • The highest domestic debt level during the period was in December 2023.

Only six states and the FCT are borrowing more domestically, with the FCT leading by a 123% domestic debt growth
  • Only six states and the FCT increased domestic debt.
  • The FCT recorded the fastest domestic debt growth at 122.8%.
  • Enugu posted the second-highest increase at 70%.
  • Lagos remains the biggest borrower by value at ₦1.2 trillion.
  • Niger, Bauchi, and Kaduna saw smaller, yet notable increases.
  • Debt growth is concentrated, not broad-based across all states.

After steady growth, the FCT’s debt spiked sharply by 139% in Q4 2025
  • FCT Abuja’s domestic debt jumped from ₦79 billion to ₦189 billion in one quarter.
  • This equals a 139.1% quarter-on-quarter increase.
  • Before Q4 2025, debt growth was relatively moderate.
  • Debt fell in 2024 before recovering in 2025.
  • The 2025 recovery was gradual until the final-quarter spike.
  • Q4 2025 pushed debt to the highest level in the series.

Lagos, Rivers, and four other states account for 52% of all Nigerian states' domestic debt and 40% of their external debt
  • Lagos dominates Nigeria’s subnational debt profile, accounting for 26.1% of domestic debt and 21.8% of external debt.
  • Six states account for 52% of domestic debt.
  • The same group contributes 40% of the external debt
  • Rivers ranks second in domestic debt (9.5%) but has a significantly lower external debt (3.8%).
  • Kaduna emerges as a major external borrower (13.7%) despite not appearing among the top domestic debt states.

Finance & Insurance now makes up 30% of Nigeria’s domestic company income tax, up from 12% in 2022
  • Company income tax collections rose from ₦1.7tn in 2022 to ₦5.0tn in 2025.
  • Finance & Insurance more than doubled its share, from 12.4% to 30.0%.
  • Finance became the largest single sector in the tax mix by 2025.
  • Manufacturing remained important, but its share fell from 27.9% to 17.7%.
  • ICT saw one of the sharpest declines, from 21.6% to 6.5%.
  • Mining & quarrying gained weight, rising from 8.4% to 14.5%.
  • Wholesale & retail also increased, from 3.6% to 7.0%.
  • The tax base became less evenly distributed across sectors.

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