Energy - Intelpoint

Asia is Nigeria’s top import source in 2025.
The highest import value from Asia was recorded in Q1 at ₦8.7 trillion.
Imports from Europe surged to ₦8.6 trillion in Q2 but declined to ₦6.6 trillion by Q4.
Imports from America showed continuous growth, rising from ₦2.9 trillion in Q1 to ₦6.6 trillion in Q4.
Imports from Africa remained below ₦1 trillion across most quarters.

Crude oil dominated Nigeria’s exports in all quarters of 2025
Q1 recorded the highest oil dependency at 81.5%.
Non-oil exports peaked in Q2 at 24.2%, representing the strongest diversification point in 2025.
The oil share dropped to its lowest in Q2 (75.8%), but still remained dominant.

Key takeaways:

Nigeria recorded its first crude oil imports in a decade in 2025, marking a structural shift in trade dynamics.
Imports accounted for 11% of total crude oil trade in 2025.
Total crude oil trade grew sharply from ₦7 trillion in 2016 to ₦53.2 trillion in 2025, indicating long-term expansion.
Exports remain dominant, contributing ₦47.4 trillion in 2025 despite the emergence of imports.
2024 was the peak year for crude oil trade at ₦55.3 trillion, followed by a slight decline in 2025.
The 2020 dip of ₦9.4 trillion highlights vulnerability to global shocks, likely tied to oil price and demand disruptions.

Crude oil alone accounts for 55.7% of all exports. Remove it and Nigeria runs a ₦26.7tn trade deficit. The entire surplus rests on one commodity.
Nigeria imports ₦31.97tn in manufactured goods but exports only ₦2.50tn, a 12-to-1 ratio that reflects near-total dependence on foreign industrial output.
Nigeria exports ₦25.3tn in petroleum products yet imports ₦13.3tn of refined petroleum. Africa's top oil producer still can't fully process its own crude.
Despite Nigeria's vast farmland, agri-exports (₦5.07tn) barely exceed agri-imports (₦4.76tn). The sector earns almost nothing net.

The highest number of grid collapses in the past 16 years occurred in 2010, with 42 incidents recorded.
During Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, Nigeria’s grid collapsed an average of 24.4 times a year, the highest among the three administrations.
Under Muhammadu Buhari, the annual average dropped to 12.8 collapses per year, indicating improved grid stability compared to earlier years.
Under Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the average has fallen further to about 6.7 collapses annually.
2016 recorded the highest number of collapses during the Buhari administration, with 28 incidents.
The most stable years in the dataset were 2020 and 2021, with only four collapses each.

Export value more than doubled from $9.72 billion in 2016 to $24.91 billion in 2025.
Trade rose steadily between 2016 and 2019, then surged sharply in 2021.
Exports declined for three consecutive years (2022–2024) after the 2021 peak.
2025 marks the highest export value in the ten-year period.

Nigeria leads by a clear margin, receiving the highest export value at $24.91bn.
Large, diversified economies dominate the top tier, with South Africa and Egypt ranking among the biggest destinations.
Resource-linked trade remains significant, with countries like Liberia and Algeria absorbing substantial export value.
Trade reach is geographically diverse, spanning West, East, and North Africa, including Ghana, Tanzania, Kenya, Morocco, and Guinea.

Exports more than doubled in a decade, with trade rising from $92.27 billion in 2016 to $225 billion in 2025, a 144% increase.
The largest single jump occurred between 2020 and 2021, when exports surged by more than $34 billion.
From 2021 to 2024, exports climbed every year, reaching $178.91 billion before the latest surge.
The increase from $178.91 billion in 2024 to $225 billion in 2025 signals a new growth surge after several years of gradual increases.

Agriculture dominated Kenya’s exports, with coffee, tea, and spices alone contributing $1.7 billion, the largest single export category.
Mineral fuels were a surprisingly strong second, delivering $1.1 billion, and showing Kenya’s growing role in regional fuel distribution.
Horticultural exports (flowers, live plants, and trees) contributed $790 million, reinforcing Kenya’s global strength in floriculture.
All other export categories fall below $300 million individually, reflecting a long list of small but diverse export segments such as textiles, vegetables, and pharmaceuticals.

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