Nigeria, the fourth-largest economy in Africa, experienced a constant annual growth rate (CAGR) of -16.02% in its GDP per capita over the past five years

Key takeaways:

  • At -16.02% CAGR, Nigeria's GDP per capita is shrinking fast, signalling deep economic strain on its population despite being a top 4 African economy.
  • Angola recorded 8.28% CAGR, showing that smaller economies can drive significant per capita progress when policies and investments align with citizen welfare.
  • With 8.23% CAGR, Algeria continues to transform national wealth into measurable benefits for its people.
  • Ethiopia’s 6.86% annual growth in GDP per capita highlights how consistent development efforts can raise living standards even in densely populated, developing nations.
  • A modest 2.52% CAGR for South Africa might not sound like much, but in a mature economy, this reflects resilience and relative stability in per capita income.
  • Egypt has a -1.41% CAGR, showing mild contraction, but far less severe than Nigeria’s economic shrinkage.

Between 2020 and 2024, Nigeria recorded the sharpest decline in nominal GDP per capita among Africa’s top 10 economies, with a -16.02% annual contraction. While most of the other African top economies managed moderate to strong gains in their citizens’ average economic wellbeing, Nigeria moved in reverse.
Similarly, on average, Egypt experienced a decline in its GDP per capita during the period. Meanwhile, countries like Angola and Algeria saw constant annual growth rates of over 8%, significantly improving the average economic situation of their people. This shows that GDP growth alone isn’t enough — how that growth is distributed and sustained over time also matters.

Source:

IMF

Period:

2020-2024
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With an impressive GDP of $199.72 billion, Nigeria is still the lowest-performing of Africa's top 10 economies
  • Despite being among the top 4 economies by size, Nigeria ranks low in GDP per capita, revealing a disconnect between total wealth and individual prosperity.
  • With the highest nominal GDP and highest per capita GDP, South Africa showcases balanced growth and better wealth distribution.
  • Countries like Ethiopia and Nigeria have huge populations, which dilutes their GDP and drags down per capita figures.
  • Though fifth in total GDP, Morocco performs better in GDP per capita, highlighting efficiency in wealth distribution.
  • This proves that a country’s economic “size” doesn’t always translate to individual opportunity, wealth, or standard of living.
  • Economies like Nigeria and Ethiopia must focus not just on increasing GDP but on ensuring that economic growth improves lives at the grassroots level.
All ten countries with the lowest GDP per capita, each below $2,000, are located in Africa
  • All ten of the world’s lowest GDP per capita countries are in Africa, signalling deep economic inequality at the global level.
  • South Sudan has the lowest GDP per capita at just $763, reflecting its ongoing economic struggles and instability.
  • Burundi and the Central African Republic follow, both under $1,300.
  • Even the highest GDP per capita country in this bottom ten, Niger, at $1,978, remains below $2,000.
  • Low GDP per capita directly impacts standard of living, limiting access to quality healthcare, education, and infrastructure.
Tuvalu, the smallest economy, is projected to have an annual GDP of only $80m, less than what Amazon earns in a day
  • With a projected GDP of $80 million, Tuvalu ranks as the smallest economy globally, producing less in a year than many corporations earn in a day.
  • Even when put together, these small economies still fall far behind the economic output of many mid-sized countries or cities.
  • Nigeria’s $199.72 billion GDP overshadows the economies of these nations.
  • Many of the world’s smallest economies are Pacific and Caribbean island nations, which often depend on tourism, remittances, and international aid.
  • With limited industries and small populations, these economies are highly vulnerable to external shocks like climate change, supply chain disruptions, or shifts in global tourism trends.
Nigerian financial institutions contributed approximately ₦6.40 out of every ₦100 generated nationally in Q1 2024, up from about ₦4.60 contributed in 2023
  • At 6.40%, financial institutions now contribute more than ever to Nigeria’s GDP.
  • From 3.60% in 2022 to 6.40% in Q1 2024, the sector’s share has nearly doubled in record time.
  • Between 2016 and 2019, the financial sector's contribution remained mostly flat at 2.60%–2.70%, showing little progress.
  • The financial sector started expanding post-2019, aligning with increased fintech adoption, digital banking growth, and financial inclusion policies.
  • The increasing role of financial institutions suggests more businesses and individuals are engaging with formal banking systems.
  • Despite economic uncertainties, Nigeria’s financial sector has successfully adapted and expanded, proving its ability to drive growth.
Tanzania's industry has more than doubled its GDP contribution over 13 years.
  • With an impressive 20.1% CAGR, the Industry (including construction) has experienced the fastest expansion, more than doubling its contribution to GDP over the period.
  • Services remains the largest contributor to GDP, but its growth at 14.6% CAGR is being outpaced by Industry, signalling an evolving economic structure.
  • Agriculture’s 11.2% CAGR shows steady growth, but its share of GDP is shrinking compared to the industrial and service sectors.
  • The rapid growth in Industry reflects Tanzania’s shift towards manufacturing, construction, and infrastructure development.
  • Unlike decades ago, when agriculture dominated, today’s GDP contributions are more balanced between Services, Industry, and Agriculture, reducing reliance on any single sector.
In 2025, Nigeria’s GDP is projected to be higher than the previous year
  • Nigeria's GDP in 2025 is expected to grow faster than in 2024.
  • Nigeria's GDP growth rate has stayed below 3.5% since 2016, reaching 3.2% in 2024.
  • The federal government's 3.68% projection in 2025 is lower than its 2024 projection of 3.74%
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