The sharp acceleration in Africa's debt service spending in 2024 is forecasted to decline to 12.6% by 2025

Africa's cost of servicing debt has surged dramatically in recent years, reaching a peak in 2024, when 13.6% of total government spending went into debt service. This represents more than a threefold increase compared to just a decade ago, when the ratio hovered below 5%. The spike marks a sharp turning point in the continent’s fiscal landscape and places increasing pressure on public finances already stretched by rising domestic needs and global shocks.

Though the debt service burden is forecasted to decline slightly to 12.6% in 2025, it still reflects a sustained and historically high level of debt pressure. Such levels mean that for every $100 spent by African governments, over $12 goes into servicing debt—leaving much less for critical sectors like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. The data underscores how debt sustainability has become a frontline concern for policymakers across the continent.

Source:

World Bank - IDS

Period:

2009-2025
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West Africa has the highest concentration of remittance-dependent nations, with 10 countries in the top 20, led by The Gambia (21.1%)
  • The Gambia leads Africa in remittance-GDP ratio, with remittance accounting for 21.1% of its GDP in 2024.
  • Lesotho (20.9%) and Comoros (18.3%) closely follow as highly remittance-dependent economies.
  • Somalia (17.5%) and Liberia (14.3%) also rely heavily on diaspora inflows to support their economies.
  • Nigeria (11.3%) remains a major player, highlighting its strong global diaspora network.
  • Cabo Verde (12.1%) and Senegal (11.6%) demonstrate that remittances are key drivers of income in smaller economies.
  • In larger economies like Egypt (7.6%) and Morocco (8.1%), remittances also make up a significant share of GDP.

Nigeria’s public debt has soared since 2010, with domestic debt up 2,020% and external debt up 1,000% by mid 2025
  • Nigeria’s domestic debt jumped from ₦3.8 trillion in 2010 to ₦80.55 trillion by mid-2025.
  • Foreign debts increased from $4.27 billion in 2010 to $46.98 billion in 2025, reflecting growing reliance on external financing.
  • Debt accumulation surged notably after 2020, coinciding with pandemic spending, naira depreciation, and higher fiscal deficits.
  • The widening gap between revenue and debt service raises questions about Nigeria’s long-term debt sustainability.

Borno records lowest domestic debt in North-East Nigeria at ₦22.3 billion in Q2 2025
  • The six North-Eastern states collectively owe around ₦450 billion in domestic debt as of Q2 2025.
  • Borno State maintains the lowest debt in the region at ₦22.3 billion, showing signs of controlled borrowing amid post-conflict rebuilding.
  • Bauchi State has the highest domestic debt burden of ₦143.6 billion, accounting for about 31% of the region’s total.
  • The top three states, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe, collectively account for more than two-thirds of the zone’s total subnational debt stock.

In just six months, Nigeria spent over $2.3 billion servicing external debts
  • Nigeria paid $816.3 million to the International Monetary Fund, accounting for over 35% of total external debt service payments.
  • Eurobond payments followed closely, with $687.8 million paid, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on commercial debt instruments.
  • Multilateral lenders like IDA and AfDB collectively received about $463 million, signalling continued exposure to concessional financing.
  • China’s share shrinking: Payments to Chinese lenders (EXIM + CDB) totalled $235.6 million, less than 11% of total outflows, suggesting reduced Chinese debt servicing in H1 2025.

Over 60% of Nigeria’s ₦1.7 trillion domestic debt service in Q2 2025 was spent on Federal Government Bonds
  • FGN bonds dominated: ₦1.07 trillion went to Federal Government Bonds, accounting for about 63% of total domestic debt servicing.
  • Treasury bills followed: Payments on NTBs reached ₦537.9 billion, making up roughly 31% of the total.
  • Sukuk and promissory notes together cost ₦90.8 billion, reflecting Nigeria’s mix of infrastructure and settlement instruments.
  • Green and savings bonds remained minimal, together below ₦5 billion, showing limited traction for retail and sustainability-focused debt.

93% of Nigeria's public debt is owed by the Federal Government
  • The Federal Government’s share of total public debt rose from 79.5% in 2019 to 92.6% in 2025.
  • States’ share has more than halved, from 20.5% to 7.4% in six years.
  • Total public debt grew from $83.9 billion to $99.7 billion, peaking at $113.4 billion in 2023.
  • Nigeria’s debt burden is increasingly concentrated at the centre, amplifying federal repayment risks and reducing fiscal independence for states.

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