Nigeria's population soars, but GDP has faced significant fluctuations from 1960 to 2023

Nigeria’s population growth has outpaced its economic performance. From 1960 to 2023, the population increased from 44.9 million to an estimated 223.8 million, putting immense pressure on resources.

The country's GDP peaked at $574.2 billion in 2014 but dropped to $362.8 billion in 2023.

Source:

World Bank

Period:

1960 - 2023
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Burundi and Mozambique consistently rank lowest in African worker productivity since 1991
  • The same countries—Burundi, Malawi, DR Congo, Mozambique, Niger, Liberia, Madagascar, Central African Republic, Chad, and Ethiopia—consistently occupy the bottom ranks over the years.
  • These countries remain far below the continent's average, often with GDP per person employed under $5,000 even in recent years.
  • Progress is marginal: while some, like Ethiopia and Mozambique, show slow growth, many fluctuate or even regress across periods.
  • Structural economic weaknesses, conflict, and low industrialisation seem to persist across the bottom group.

Lagos’ population has grown by about 25% on average every 5 years since 1965
  • Lagos has grown from 325,200 in 1950 to a an estimated 17.2 million in 2025
  • The State’s fastest 5-year growth came between 1955–1960 at 62.7%.
  • Since 2000, growth has steadied around 18–20% every 5 years.
  • More than 10 million people added between 2000 and 2025 alone.
  • Growth continues to outstrip investments in housing, transport, and basic services.

By 2054, India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country, growing by 17.1% from 2024 to reach 1.69 billion people
Key Takeaways:
  • India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country in 2054, reaching 1.69 billion, an increase of 246 million from 2024.
  • China’s population is expected to decline to 1.22 billion by 2054, marking a 14.1% decrease.
  • Nigeria is projected to rise to 5th place globally, with a population of 374 million, a 62% increase from 2024.
  • The United States remains the only high-income country in the top five, with a projected population of 384 million.
  • Pakistan is expected to climb from 5th to 3rd place, adding 138 million people by 2054.
  • Three African countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo) are expected to rank among the top 10 most populous nations.
  • Russia is projected to see a population decline of 6.9%.

By 2100, seven African nations are expected to rank among the world’s 15 most populous countries, with Nigeria’s population projected to more than double
Key Takeaways:
  • India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country in 2100, with 1.5 billion people, a 4.5% increase from 2024.
  • China’s population is expected to fall sharply by 55.1% to 638.7 million, less than half of its 2024 population.
  • Pakistan's population is expected to nearly double by 2100.
  • Nigeria is projected to become the world’s fourth most populous country by 2100, with a population of more than 470 million.
  • Seven of the 15 most populous countries in 2100 are expected to be in Africa.
  • The United States is projected to rank sixth globally by 2100 from its current third position, despite a 22.2% expected population increase from 2024.
  • Together, the top 15 countries are expected to account for 57.9% of the global population by 2100.
  • The total world population is projected to reach 10.19 billion by the end of the century.

Gabon has topped worker productivity in Africa for 21 of 33 years; Nigeria stays outside top 20
  • Gabon led Africa in GDP per person employed for 21 years, the most of any country, thanks largely to its oil wealth and smaller labour force.
  • Equatorial Guinea was a close second, topping the list for 12 straight years, particularly during its oil boom.
  • Libya never came first but held second place in 18 different years, showing long-term stability in productivity.
  • Algeria and Egypt frequently ranked in the top three but never led.
  • Nigeria, despite being Africa’s most populous country and once its largest economy, never made it into the top 3 and has consistently ranked around 23rd to 26th.
  • The leading countries tend to share a pattern: resource-driven economies with relatively smaller workforces, while lower-ranked ones often struggle.

Nigeria's youth demographic is evident as Gen Z and Millennials combined comprise over 50.1% of the population
  • Gen Z and Millennials combined make up just over half of Nigeria’s population at 50.1%.
  • Gen Alpha alone represents 35.6% of the total population — the single largest generational cohort.
  • Gen Z, born between the late 1990s and early 2010s, accounts for 25.8% of Nigerians.
  • Millennials make up 24.3%, maintaining a strong influence across work, culture, and consumer trends.
  • Gen X, typically born between 1965 and 1980, represents only 9.2% of the population.
  • Older generations (Baby Boomers and Silent Generation) account for just 5.1% of the total population.
  • Nigeria’s entire population under the age of 44 (Gen Alpha, Gen Z, and Millennials) represents approximately 85.7% of the total population.

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