Nigeria's debt service per GDP increased from 0.7% in 2015 to 10.2% in 2024, with 2025 forecasted to reach 15.1%

  • Nigeria's debt service per GDP rose from 0.9% in 2009 to a projected 15.1% in 2025.
  • Overall CAGR from 2009 to 2025 is 17.8%.
  • President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure saw the fastest growth (29.1% CAGR).
  • Under President Goodluck Jonathan, growth was slower (6.5% CAGR).
  • President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s term so far shows a 27.6% CAGR.

Nigeria’s debt service per GDP has risen sharply over the past decade and a half, climbing from 0.9% in 2009 to a projected 15.1% in 2025, after hitting a peak of 10.2% in 2024. The data reveals an average growth rate (CAGR) of 17.8% between 2009 and 2025, underscoring a significant increase in the country’s debt burden.

A closer look shows that the fastest growth occurred during President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure (2015–2023), when debt service per GDP grew at an extraordinary 29.1% CAGR. Debt service per GDP growth was slower under President Goodluck Jonathan [(6.5% CAGR), and] there has been a noticeable uptrend in the first two years of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu (27.6% CAGR so far).

The overall trend points to mounting fiscal pressure. The sharp jumps in recent years, especially from 7.3% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2025, highlight how quickly debt service obligations are consuming a larger share of Nigeria’s economy.

Source:

World Bank - IDS

Period:

2009-2025
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Nigeria’s public debt has soared since 2010, with domestic debt up 2,020% and external debt up 1,000% by mid 2025
  • Nigeria’s domestic debt jumped from ₦3.8 trillion in 2010 to ₦80.55 trillion by mid-2025.
  • Foreign debts increased from $4.27 billion in 2010 to $46.98 billion in 2025, reflecting growing reliance on external financing.
  • Debt accumulation surged notably after 2020, coinciding with pandemic spending, naira depreciation, and higher fiscal deficits.
  • The widening gap between revenue and debt service raises questions about Nigeria’s long-term debt sustainability.
Borno records lowest domestic debt in North-East Nigeria at ₦22.3 billion in Q2 2025
  • The six North-Eastern states collectively owe around ₦450 billion in domestic debt as of Q2 2025.
  • Borno State maintains the lowest debt in the region at ₦22.3 billion, showing signs of controlled borrowing amid post-conflict rebuilding.
  • Bauchi State has the highest domestic debt burden of ₦143.6 billion, accounting for about 31% of the region’s total.
  • The top three states, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe, collectively account for more than two-thirds of the zone’s total subnational debt stock.
In just six months, Nigeria spent over $2.3 billion servicing external debts
  • Nigeria paid $816.3 million to the International Monetary Fund, accounting for over 35% of total external debt service payments.
  • Eurobond payments followed closely, with $687.8 million paid, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on commercial debt instruments.
  • Multilateral lenders like IDA and AfDB collectively received about $463 million, signalling continued exposure to concessional financing.
  • China’s share shrinking: Payments to Chinese lenders (EXIM + CDB) totalled $235.6 million, less than 11% of total outflows, suggesting reduced Chinese debt servicing in H1 2025.
Over 60% of Nigeria’s ₦1.7 trillion domestic debt service in Q2 2025 was spent on Federal Government Bonds
  • FGN bonds dominated: ₦1.07 trillion went to Federal Government Bonds, accounting for about 63% of total domestic debt servicing.
  • Treasury bills followed: Payments on NTBs reached ₦537.9 billion, making up roughly 31% of the total.
  • Sukuk and promissory notes together cost ₦90.8 billion, reflecting Nigeria’s mix of infrastructure and settlement instruments.
  • Green and savings bonds remained minimal, together below ₦5 billion, showing limited traction for retail and sustainability-focused debt.
93% of Nigeria's public debt is owed by the Federal Government
  • The Federal Government’s share of total public debt rose from 79.5% in 2019 to 92.6% in 2025.
  • States’ share has more than halved, from 20.5% to 7.4% in six years.
  • Total public debt grew from $83.9 billion to $99.7 billion, peaking at $113.4 billion in 2023.
  • Nigeria’s debt burden is increasingly concentrated at the centre, amplifying federal repayment risks and reducing fiscal independence for states.
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