Nigeria's capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP dropped from an average of 4.33% (1981–2001) to just 1.58% (2002–2024)

Key takeaways:

  • From an average of 4.33% in 1981–2001 to just 1.58% in 2002–2024, Nigeria’s capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP has more than halved.
  • The early 2000s marked a major turning point. After peaking at 9.1% in 1999, capital spending nosedived, rarely surpassing 2% in the last two decades.
  • Recent figures show Nigeria’s capital expenditure hovering around 1–2% of GDP.
  • The data suggests a move away from infrastructure investments, potentially prioritising recurrent expenditure such as salaries and overheads.
  • Low capital spending can slow infrastructure development, limiting productivity, economic expansion, and foreign investment attractiveness.
  • If Nigeria is to achieve sustainable growth, there needs to be a renewed focus on capital investments to drive industrialisation, improve public services, and create jobs.

Nigeria’s capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP has seen a significant decline over the past two decades, dropping from an average of 4.33% (1981–2001) to just 1.58% (2002–2024). The data reveals a clear shift in government spending priorities, with capital investments taking a backseat despite the country’s growing infrastructure and development needs.
This drop is even more concerning when compared to historical peaks. Capital spending once hit 9.1% of GDP in 1999, but in recent years, it has struggled to cross 2%. The decline suggests that while Nigeria’s economy has expanded, public investments in critical infrastructure like roads, power, and healthcare have not kept pace. This raises crucial questions about the sustainability of economic growth in the absence of strong public sector investment.

Source:

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)

Period:

1981 - 2024
HTML code to embed chart
Want a bespoke report?
Reach out
Tags
Related Insights

Two-thirds of IDA’s commitments in one year went to Africa, led by Nigeria’s $3.1bn
  • Africa received 66% of IDA’s FY2025 commitments.
  • Africa’s total IDA allocation was $22.4 billion out of $33.8 billion.
  • Nigeria was the largest borrower from the DA globally, with $3.1 billion in loans.
  • Bangladesh ranked second with $3 billion.
  • Six of the top ten borrowers were African countries.
  • Nigeria accounted for 9.3% of total FY2025 IDA commitments.

Oyo has reduced external debt by 36% and domestic debt by 22% under Makinde
  • Oyo reduced external and domestic debt by the end of 2025.
  • External debt fell faster than domestic debt.
  • External debt declined more consistently over the period.
  • Oyo’s local debt peaked around 2022–2023 before falling back.
  • The state appears to have prioritised reducing FX exposure.

Africa has been the world's biggest World Bank borrower since 2017, owing $152 billion as of 2024
  • Africa has been the world's biggest World Bank borrower since 2017, and the gap is widening.
  • Three crises drove it: an infrastructure gap, the 2014 commodity crash, and COVID-19.
  • The World Bank leaned in deliberately — 66% of all IDA funds went to Africa in 2025 alone.
  • It's not really "Africa's debt" — it's Nigeria's, Kenya's, Ethiopia's, Egypt's, Tanzania's, and Morocco's.
  • Every other region is slowing down, but Africa's curve is still climbing.

Obasanjo led Nigeria's biggest GDP per capita rise at 268% in 8 years
  • Nigeria’s GDP per capita rose strongly from 1999 to 2014, then reversed.
  • The 2014 peak remains the defining turning point.
  • Obasanjo’s years show the fastest sustained climb from a very low base.
  • Yar’Adua’s short tenure still maintained upward momentum.
  • Jonathan’s period delivered the peak level, not the fastest growth rate.
  • Buhari’s tenure marks the longest clear decline in GDP per capita.
  • Tinubu’s period begins with another sharp fall.

Under Sanwo-Olu, Lagos cut its external debt and more than doubled its domestic debt
  • Lagos cut external debt, but increased domestic debt.
  • The drop in external debt was meaningful, but the rise in domestic debt was much larger.
  • Stronger IGR gave Lagos more room to borrow and repay.
  • The state chose local funding over heavier dollar exposure.

Lagos's external debt has reduced by nearly three times more than the other six states combined
  • Lagos's debt reduction is larger than the other six combined.
  • Oyo posted the fastest reduction rate.
  • The biggest percentage cut did not equal the biggest dollar cut.
  • Debt reduction was concentrated, not broad-based.
  • Higher state revenues likely created room for repayments.
  • Lagos had the strongest fiscal capacity among the states shown.
  • Smaller debt stocks made percentage declines easier for some states.

POPULAR TOPICS
SIGN UP TO OUR NEWSLETTER
Get periodic updates about the African startup space, access to our reports, among others.
Subscribe Here
Subscription Form

A product of Techpoint Africa. All rights reserved