Nigeria: Food inflation surged from 24.8% to 30.6% in five months since fuel subsidy removal

While many living in Nigeria have already experienced the effects of the fuel subsidy removal on their daily expenses, this chart presents a clearer picture of reality. Will the prices of food items continue to rise? Is there hope of some respite soon?

Source:

National Bureau of Statistics

Period:

Oct 2022 - Sept 2023
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Six Nigerian states raised more revenue through MDAs than taxes in 2025
  • Six states generated about ₦656 billion through MDAs in 2025, nearly half of all MDA revenue.
  • The number of states where MDAs accounted for over half of IGR fell from seven in 2024 to six in 2025.
  • Enugu’s MDA share rose from 82.9% in 2024 to 87.3% in 2025, widening its lead.
  • Kwara, Katsina and Osun recorded MDA shares of 61.6%, 60.1% and 58.5%, respectively.
Lagos, Rivers and the FCT generated 63.5% of state-level PAYE in 2025
  • Lagos, Rivers and the FCT collected 63.5% of state-level PAYE in 2025.
  • Lagos collected ₦993.3 billion in PAYE, more than the next five jurisdictions combined.
  • The top 10 jurisdictions accounted for 81.5% of ₦2.636 trillion in total PAYE.
  • The bottom five jurisdictions collected ₦47.0 billion combined, less than 2% of the total.
  • Delta collected ₦139.7 billion, less than half of the FCT’s ₦320.1 billion.
Arts & entertainment recorded the highest GDP growth in H1 2026
  • Nigeria’s economy grew 4.16% in H1 2026, but growth was uneven across sectors.
  • Arts and entertainment grew fastest at 11.5%, followed by water and waste management (10.9%) and information and communication (10.3%).
  • Agriculture, which accounts for about a quarter of GDP, grew 3.8%, below the headline rate.
  • Trade and real estate also lagged, growing 2.2% and 3.0%, respectively.
  • Electricity and gas was the biggest drag, contracting 11.6%, while Other Services fell 1.4%.
Year-on-year change in Nigeria's electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply GDP
  • Electricity, gas and related supply was Nigeria’s worst-performing broad economic activity in H1 2026.
  • Sector GDP fell 11.6% year-on-year, from ₦800.2bn to ₦707.1bn.
  • Output fell below H1 2024 levels, when the sector recorded ₦708.5bn.
  • Only one other broad activity contracted: Other Services, which fell 1.4%.
  • The sector contributed just 0.7% of Nigeria’s real GDP on average over the period shown.
Nigeria, Egypt and Madagascar have consistently led Africa’s rice production, with Nigeria recording consistent growth in recent years
  • Nigeria's rice production hit 9.13 million tonnes in 2024, its highest level since 2021.
  • Egypt and Madagascar produced 6.43 and 4.97 million tonnes, respectively, in 2024.
  • Egypt and Madagascar combined produced 11.4 million tonnes, exceeding Nigeria's output.
  • Africa's rice production reached a record 44.8 million tonnes in 2024, up 421% since 1980.
People facing Crisis+ food insecurity in Nigeria, projected Jun–Aug 2026
  • 36.3 million people face Crisis-level food insecurity in August 2026, up 33% from November 2025.
  • Nearly 8 in 10 households in the northeast have less than a week's food supply.
  • 58% of people in the northeast have insufficient food consumption.
  • Conflict, displacement and market disruption are deepening the crisis.
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