By 2100, seven African nations are expected to rank among the world’s 15 most populous countries, with Nigeria’s population projected to more than double

Key Takeaways:

India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country in 2100, with 1.5 billion people, a 4.5% increase from 2024.
China’s population is expected to fall sharply by 55.1% to 638.7 million, less than half of its 2024 population.
Pakistan's population is expected to nearly double by 2100.
Nigeria is projected to become the world’s fourth most populous country by 2100, with a population of more than 470 million.
Seven of the 15 most populous countries in 2100 are expected to be in Africa.
The United States is projected to rank sixth globally by 2100 from its current third position, despite a 22.2% expected population increase from 2024.
Together, the top 15 countries are expected to account for 57.9% of the global population by 2100.
The total world population is projected to reach 10.19 billion by the end of the century.

By the year 2100, global population dynamics are expected to shift dramatically. Seven African countries (Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Angola, and Sudan) are projected to be among the 15 most populous nations, collectively accounting for 34.3% of the top fifteen's total population. Nigeria alone is expected to reach approximately 477 million people, making it the fourth most populous country in the world.

Meanwhile, India is projected to maintain its position as the global population leader, with a modest 4.5% increase bringing its population to 1.5 billion. In contrast, China is projected to undergo a significant demographic contraction, with its population falling to 638.7 million, a 55.1% decline from its current size. The U.S. is expected to continue growing, reaching 420 million by 2100 and ranking sixth as against its current position.

Source:

UNDESA: World Population Prospects 2024

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By 2054, India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country, growing by 17.1% from 2024 to reach 1.69 billion people

Key Takeaways:

India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country in 2054, reaching 1.69 billion, an increase of 246 million from 2024.
China’s population is expected to decline to 1.22 billion by 2054, marking a 14.1% decrease.
Nigeria is projected to rise to 5th place globally, with a population of 374 million, a 62% increase from 2024.
The United States remains the only high-income country in the top five, with a projected population of 384 million.
Pakistan is expected to climb from 5th to 3rd place, adding 138 million people by 2054.
Three African countries (Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo) are expected to rank among the top 10 most populous nations.
Russia is projected to see a population decline of 6.9%.

Nigeria's youth demographic is evident as Gen Z and Millennials combined comprise over 50.1% of the population

Gen Z and Millennials combined make up just over half of Nigeria’s population at 50.1%.
Gen Alpha alone represents 35.6% of the total population — the single largest generational cohort.
Gen Z, born between the late 1990s and early 2010s, accounts for 25.8% of Nigerians.
Millennials make up 24.3%, maintaining a strong influence across work, culture, and consumer trends.
Gen X, typically born between 1965 and 1980, represents only 9.2% of the population.
Older generations (Baby Boomers and Silent Generation) account for just 5.1% of the total population.
Nigeria’s entire population under the age of 44 (Gen Alpha, Gen Z, and Millennials) represents approximately 85.7% of the total population.

Nigeria spends millions of dollars on each national census

Nigeria spent $6 million on its first post-independence census in 1962.
There is no publicly available data on the amount spent during the 1991 census.
By 2006, census spending had surged to $266 million, highlighting a significant increase in the cost of national population counts.
The budget for the upcoming 2025 census has not yet been disclosed.
In April 2025, President Tinubu inaugurated the National Census Committee and gave a three-week deadline to submit a detailed report.

Generation Alpha has now surpassed all other generations, making up 24.4% of the global population

Generation Alpha is the largest generation, making up 24.4% of the global population.
Gen Z and Millennials still hold strong influence, comprising 22.9% and 21.2% of the global population.
The Baby Boomer generation (12.8%) is gradually declining, which will impact industries like retirement services, healthcare, and wealth distribution.
The Silent Generation is now just 2% of the population, highlighting the demographic shift away from the older generations.
Generation X, at 16.7%, remains a crucial but often overlooked group, balancing leadership roles in business and governance while supporting both older and younger generations.
The rise of Generation Alpha signals the dawn of an even more digital-native world, shaping the future of education, marketing, and work environments.
With Millennials, Gen Z, and Gen Alpha making up nearly 70% of the population, the global workforce, economy, and social dynamics will see rapid transformation in the coming years.

2.87% of the world, which amounts to 235 million people, reside in Nigeria as of January 2025

India is now the world’s most populous country, surpassing China with 17.78% of the global population.
China closely follows with 17.30%, showing that even though its population growth is slowing, it remains one of the most dominant globally.
The United States (4.23%) remains the most populous Western country, reinforcing its continued economic and political significance.
Nigeria leads Africa with 2.87% of the global population, showing that Africa's rising demographic weight will be a major factor in future economic and workforce trends.
Ethiopia (1.63%) is another African country on the rise, showing how Africa’s demographic shift is accelerating beyond just Nigeria.
Russia (1.76%) is the only European country on the list, underscoring Europe’s declining share in global population dynamics compared to the rapid growth of Asian and African nations.

Southern Africa contributes only 4.8% to Africa's 1.5 billion population

Eastern Africa is the most populous region, making up 33.09% of Africa’s total population, with over 507 million people.
Together, Eastern and Western Africa house over 63% of Africa’s total population, indicating where much of the continent’s human capital and economic activity will be concentrated.
Northern Africa has 274.1 million people (17.89%), while Central Africa has 216.3 million (14.11%), placing them in the mid-range of Africa’s population distribution.
Southern Africa is by far the least populous region, contributing just 4.8% (73.6 million people) to Africa’s 1.5 billion total.
The population contrast across regions highlights key differences in urbanisation, economic opportunities, and development needs.
Understanding Africa’s population distribution is crucial for businesses, policymakers, and investors, as future economic growth, consumer markets, and labour forces will be heavily influenced by these demographic trends.