By 2100, seven African nations are expected to rank among the world’s 15 most populous countries, with Nigeria’s population projected to more than double

Key Takeaways:

  • India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country in 2100, with 1.5 billion people, a 4.5% increase from 2024.
  • China’s population is expected to fall sharply by 55.1% to 638.7 million, less than half of its 2024 population.
  • Pakistan's population is expected to nearly double by 2100.
  • Nigeria is projected to become the world’s fourth most populous country by 2100, with a population of more than 470 million.
  • Seven of the 15 most populous countries in 2100 are expected to be in Africa.
  • The United States is projected to rank sixth globally by 2100 from its current third position, despite a 22.2% expected population increase from 2024.
  • Together, the top 15 countries are expected to account for 57.9% of the global population by 2100.
  • The total world population is projected to reach 10.19 billion by the end of the century.

By the year 2100, global population dynamics are expected to shift dramatically. Seven African countries (Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Angola, and Sudan) are projected to be among the 15 most populous nations, collectively accounting for 34.3% of the top fifteen's total population. Nigeria alone is expected to reach approximately 477 million people, making it the fourth most populous country in the world.

Meanwhile, India is projected to maintain its position as the global population leader, with a modest 4.5% increase bringing its population to 1.5 billion. In contrast, China is projected to undergo a significant demographic contraction, with its population falling to 638.7 million, a 55.1% decline from its current size. The U.S. is expected to continue growing, reaching 420 million by 2100 and ranking sixth as against its current position.

Source:

UNDESA: World Population Prospects 2024

Period:

2100
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