By 2100, seven African nations are expected to rank among the world’s 15 most populous countries, with Nigeria’s population projected to more than double

Key Takeaways:

India is projected to remain the world’s most populous country in 2100, with 1.5 billion people, a 4.5% increase from 2024.
China’s population is expected to fall sharply by 55.1% to 638.7 million, less than half of its 2024 population.
Pakistan's population is expected to nearly double by 2100.
Nigeria is projected to become the world’s fourth most populous country by 2100, with a population of more than 470 million.
Seven of the 15 most populous countries in 2100 are expected to be in Africa.
The United States is projected to rank sixth globally by 2100 from its current third position, despite a 22.2% expected population increase from 2024.
Together, the top 15 countries are expected to account for 57.9% of the global population by 2100.
The total world population is projected to reach 10.19 billion by the end of the century.

By the year 2100, global population dynamics are expected to shift dramatically. Seven African countries (Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Angola, and Sudan) are projected to be among the 15 most populous nations, collectively accounting for 34.3% of the top fifteen's total population. Nigeria alone is expected to reach approximately 477 million people, making it the fourth most populous country in the world.

Meanwhile, India is projected to maintain its position as the global population leader, with a modest 4.5% increase bringing its population to 1.5 billion. In contrast, China is projected to undergo a significant demographic contraction, with its population falling to 638.7 million, a 55.1% decline from its current size. The U.S. is expected to continue growing, reaching 420 million by 2100 and ranking sixth as against its current position.

Source:

UNDESA: World Population Prospects 2024

<div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://intelpoint.co/insights/by-2100-seven-african-nations-are-expected-to-rank-among-the-worlds-15-most-populous-countries-with-nigerias-population-projected-to-more-than-double/" title="By 2100, seven African nations are expected to rank among the world’s 15 most populous countries, with Nigeria’s population projected to more than double"><img src="https://intelpoint.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/The-top-15-projected-most-populous-countries-globally-in-2100.webp" style="width: 80%; height: auto; max-width:960px;-ms-interpolation-mode: bicubic; margin: 0 auto; display: block;" alt="Chart: By 2100, seven African nations are expected to rank among the world’s 15 most populous countries, with Nigeria’s population projected to more than double"/></a><br><span>Find more insights at <a href="https://intelpoint.co/insights?utm_source=Insight%20Embed&utm_medium=HTML&utm_campaign=By+2100%2C+seven+African+nations+are+expected+to+rank+among+the+world%E2%80%99s+15+most+populous+countries%2C+with+Nigeria%E2%80%99s+population+projected+to+more+than+double" target="_blank" style="color: #4f9acc; text-decoration: none;">Intelpoint</a>.</span></div>Copied to clipboard!

Period:

2100

HTML code to embed chart

Want a bespoke report?

Reach out

Related Insights

Six of the ten countries with the lowest share of older populations are in Africa

Qatar has the lowest share of seniors, with only 1.7% of its population aged 65+.
The UAE follows closely at 1.8%.
Zambia has 2.0% of its population aged 65 and above, totalling about 438,000 people.
Uganda, Chad, and the Central African Republic each have a senior population of around 2.1–2.2%, with totals exceeding 1 million seniors.
Qatar also has the smallest absolute number of seniors on the list—just 53,000 people.
Nigeria has 7.3 million seniors that represent only 3.1% of its population, ranking 25th worldwide.

At 38 years, Mauritius has the oldest median age among African countries

Mauritius, with a median age of 38 years, has the oldest population in Africa.
The Central African Republic has the youngest population, with a median age of 14 years.
Nigeria’s median age of 18 years reflects the dominance of youth in its population.
Older populations tend to signal lower fertility rates.
Younger populations highlight higher fertility rates and greater demand for education and jobs.

Over the last 76 years, Africa's population has increased from being less than half (228M) that of Europe to doubling Europe (1.6B)

Africa’s population grew by 580.4%, from 228M in 1950 to 1.6B in 2025, making it the fastest-growing continent.
Asia remains the most populated continent, reaching 4.8B people in 2025, up from 1.4B in 1950.
Europe’s growth has been the slowest, at just 35.6%, rising from 549M to 744M.
Latin America & the Caribbean grew by 298%, from 168M to 668M.
North America more than doubled its population, growing by 130.7% from 168M to 388M.
Oceania saw a 270% increase, though it remains the least populated continent at 47M people.
Africa’s population is now more than double Europe’s, a major demographic shift compared to 1950.

The most populous country per region varies from Nigeria's 238M to South Africa's 65M

Nigeria leads Africa with 238 million people in July 2025.
Namibia, though the second largest in the South, has only 3 million people.
In Eastern Africa, Ethiopia (135M) and Tanzania (71M) dominate.
Egypt (118M) and Sudan (52M) are Northern Africa’s population leaders.
South Africa (65M) is Southern Africa’s most populous country, far ahead of Namibia.
In West Africa, Nigeria (238M) and Ghana (35M) are the most populous, showing a wide gap within the region.

Gabon's urban population share of 84% is the highest in Africa while Burundi (15%) has the lowest share

Gabon (84%) is Africa’s most urbanised country, while Burundi (15%) is the least.
Five of the top 10 urbanised African countries have an urban share above 75%.
Small island nations like Cabo Verde (79%) and Sao Tome & Principe (78%) rank highly, reflecting their concentrated settlements.
Resource-rich countries like Libya (78%), Botswana (76%), and Algeria (74%) show strong urbanisation patterns.
Ethiopia (23%) and Uganda (30%) highlight the urbanisation gap among high-population countries.
Nigeria sits at 55%, ranked 19th, reflecting moderate urbanisation compared to other African giants.
Most of the bottom 10 countries, such as Malawi (20%), Niger (18%), and Rwanda (18%), are still heavily rural, signalling slower urban development.

Africa's urban population, currently at 45%, is forecasted to exceed 50% by 2035

Africa’s urban population has grown more than twelvefold, from 53 million in 1960 to nearly 700 million by 2025.
The share of Africans living in urban areas has risen from 18.7% in 1960 to 45% in 2025, and is projected to hit 57% by 2045.
Africa will reach a 50% urban population by 2035, where half of its population will reside in cities.
From 2000 to 2025, Africa’s urban population nearly tripled, highlighting the intensity of recent growth.
By 2045, 1.3 billion Africans will live in urban centres, making city development central to the continent’s progress.