Electricity generation in Africa: fossil still leads 2.5-to-1, but the gap is closing

Key Takeaways

  • Fossil fuels still generate 2.5x more electricity than non-fossil sources, though the gap has narrowed from a 2007 peak of 4.5x.
  • South Africa and Egypt together account for all of Africa's nuclear power and 59% of its non-hydro renewables.
  • Hydropower, the largest non-fossil source at 188.6 TWh, tells a different geographic story, with 91% generated outside South Africa and Egypt, mainly in Eastern, Middle, and Western Africa.
  • Gas still leads at 403.9 TWh, but its growth slowed to 0.8% in 2025 versus 11.9% growth for non-fossil sources.

Fossil fuels still dominate Africa's electricity mix. Gas, coal, and oil combined generated 703.2 TWh in 2025, versus 282.8 TWh from non-fossil sources — a gap 2.5 times as large.
That gap isn't fixed, though: it has actually narrowed over time, from 3.7 times in 1985 to a peak of 4.5 times in 2007, down to today's 2.5 times.

The geography behind the shift is uneven. South Africa alone accounts for all of Africa's 10.7 TWh of nuclear generation; together with Egypt, it accounts for 59% of the continent's 83.4 TWh of non-hydro renewables.
But hydropower — at 188.6 TWh, the largest single component of Africa's non-fossil mix — is generated almost entirely elsewhere: 172 TWh. or 91%, comes from outside those two countries, concentrated in Eastern , Middle, and Western Africa.

Gas remains the largest single source by a wide margin, at 403.9 TWh, but its growth has slowed to 0.8% in 2025 against 1.2–1.8% in each of the prior three years, while non-fossil generation grew 11.9% in the same year. Neither trend is guaranteed to hold, and a single year's growth rate isn't a forecast — but at current trajectories, non-fossil's 121.1 TWh gap behind gas is worth watching, not assuming fixed.

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Non-fossil generation overtook coal in 2023, and the gap has widened every year since
  • Non-fossil generation overtook coal in 2023, with the gap reaching 57.5 TWh in 2025.
  • Coal generation fell to 225.3 TWh, below its 262.6 TWh peak in 2007.
  • Hydropower dominates non-fossil generation, producing 188.6 TWh in 2025.
  • Fossil fuels still dominate, generating 703.2 TWh versus 282.8 TWh from non-fossil sources.

Egypt overtook South Africa's electricity generation in 2024 and extended its lead in 2025
  • Africa’s share of global electricity generation rose only from 2.6% in 1985 to 3.1% in 2025.
  • Africa’s electricity generation increased 283% over the past 40 years.
  • Egypt overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest electricity producer in 2024.
  • Egypt generated 242.4 TWh in 2025, up from 30.3 TWh in 1985.
  • South Africa generated 231.1 TWh in 2025, down from its 263.5 TWh peak in 2007.
  • Egypt and South Africa accounted for 24.5% of Africa’s electricity generation in 2025.

East African countries accounted for seven of the continent's 15 biggest electricity access gains in 23 years
  • Eswatini recorded Africa’s largest electricity access gain, rising by 66 percentage points from 2000 to 2023.
  • Kenya and Rwanda followed with gains of 61 pp and 58 pp, respectively.
  • East African countries accounted for 7 of Africa’s top 15 electricity access improvements.
  • Comoros, Ghana and Cape Verde reached very high access levels by 2023, at 90%, 90% and 99% respectively.
  • Nigeria’s electricity access improved by 18 percentage points, from 43% in 2000 to 61% in 2023.
  • Despite that improvement, Nigeria remained outside Africa’s top 15 gainers over the period.
  • Some countries were absent from the ranking because they had already reached high access levels by 2000.

Ibadan and Enugu DisCos together accounted for nearly two million unmetered customers
  • Nigeria still had about 5.25 million unmetered electricity customers across DisCos.
  • The 11 DisCos reported in Q4 2025 had 5.20 million unmetered customers.
  • Nigeria’s reported metering rate stood at 57.3% as of Q4 2025.
  • Ibadan and Enugu had the largest gaps, with nearly two million unmetered customers combined.
  • Ibadan alone had 1.18 million unmetered customers, the highest of any DisCo.
  • Ikeja and Eko had the strongest metering performance, both at about 86%.
  • At the 2025 pace of meter additions, closing the current gap could take close to seven years.

The national grid collapses an average of 7 times annually under Tinubu, down from 13 times under Buhari
  • The highest number of grid collapses in the past 16 years occurred in 2010, with 42 incidents recorded.
  • During Goodluck Jonathan’s administration, Nigeria’s grid collapsed an average of 24.4 times a year, the highest among the three administrations.
  • Under Muhammadu Buhari, the annual average dropped to 12.8 collapses per year, indicating improved grid stability compared to earlier years.
  • Under Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the average has fallen further to about 6.7 collapses annually.
  • 2016 recorded the highest number of collapses during the Buhari administration, with 28 incidents.
  • The most stable years in the dataset were 2020 and 2021, with only four collapses each.

Nigeria’s power grid is 69.9% powered by thermal plants
  • Thermal energy dominates Nigeria’s grid, supplying 69.9% of total power.
  • Hydro plants contribute 30.1%, making them the country’s second major source.
  • The heavy reliance on thermal generation shows Nigeria’s grid is still largely fossil-fuel driven.
  • Hydro remains a crucial but secondary source, supporting overall supply stability.

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