Three African countries are projected to have debt exceeding their GDP in 2026

  • Sudan is projected to have Africa’s highest debt-to-GDP ratio in 2026, at 169.1%.
  • Only three African countries are projected to owe more than the size of their economies in 2026.
  • Senegal and Mozambique join Sudan among countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 100%.
  • Africa’s average government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 60.7% in 2026.
  • Nigeria’s projected debt-to-GDP ratio of 32.3% is far below the African average.

Sudan's projected debt burden in 2026 is equivalent to 169.1% of its GDP.

It is one of three African countries expected to have debt exceeding the size of their economies, alongside Senegal and Mozambique.

Africa's average debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at 60.7%, while Nigeria's stands at 32.3%.

Source:

International Monetary Fund

Period:

2026
HTML code to embed chart
Want a bespoke report?
Reach out
Click to copy HTML embed code
Tags
Related Insights
Mauritius has the strongest productive capacity in Africa — ahead of Seychelles and South Africa
  • Mauritius leads Africa on the Productive Capacities Index with a score of 55.02, ranking 56th globally.
  • Seychelles, South Africa, and Cape Verde complete Africa’s top four, but none enters the global top 50.
  • Nigeria ranks much lower at 167th globally, with a score of 30.68, despite being one of Africa’s largest economies.
  • The ranking shows that economic size does not always translate into stronger productive foundations like human capital, ICT, energy, transport, and institutions.
Two-thirds of IDA’s commitments in one year went to Africa, led by Nigeria’s $3.1bn
  • Africa received 66% of IDA’s FY2025 commitments.
  • Africa’s total IDA allocation was $22.4 billion out of $33.8 billion.
  • Nigeria was the largest borrower from the DA globally, with $3.1 billion in loans.
  • Bangladesh ranked second with $3 billion.
  • Six of the top ten borrowers were African countries.
  • Nigeria accounted for 9.3% of total FY2025 IDA commitments.
Oyo has reduced external debt by 36% and domestic debt by 22% under Makinde
  • Oyo reduced external and domestic debt by the end of 2025.
  • External debt fell faster than domestic debt.
  • External debt declined more consistently over the period.
  • Oyo’s local debt peaked around 2022–2023 before falling back.
  • The state appears to have prioritised reducing FX exposure.
Africa has been the world's biggest World Bank borrower since 2017, owing $152 billion as of 2024
  • Africa has been the world's biggest World Bank borrower since 2017, and the gap is widening.
  • Three crises drove it: an infrastructure gap, the 2014 commodity crash, and COVID-19.
  • The World Bank leaned in deliberately — 66% of all IDA funds went to Africa in 2025 alone.
  • It's not really "Africa's debt" — it's Nigeria's, Kenya's, Ethiopia's, Egypt's, Tanzania's, and Morocco's.
  • Every other region is slowing down, but Africa's curve is still climbing.
Obasanjo led Nigeria's biggest GDP per capita rise at 268% in 8 years
  • Nigeria’s GDP per capita rose strongly from 1999 to 2014, then reversed.
  • The 2014 peak remains the defining turning point.
  • Obasanjo’s years show the fastest sustained climb from a very low base.
  • Yar’Adua’s short tenure still maintained upward momentum.
  • Jonathan’s period delivered the peak level, not the fastest growth rate.
  • Buhari’s tenure marks the longest clear decline in GDP per capita.
  • Tinubu’s period begins with another sharp fall.
Under Sanwo-Olu, Lagos cut its external debt and more than doubled its domestic debt
  • Lagos cut external debt, but increased domestic debt.
  • The drop in external debt was meaningful, but the rise in domestic debt was much larger.
  • Stronger IGR gave Lagos more room to borrow and repay.
  • The state chose local funding over heavier dollar exposure.
POPULAR TOPICS
SIGN UP TO OUR NEWSLETTER
Get periodic updates about the African startup space, access to our reports, among others.
Subscribe Here
Subscription Form
A product of Techpoint Africa. All rights reserved