Trade and agriculture led Nigeria’s ₦51.20 trillion economy in Q2 2025, as oil’s share remained modest

Key Takeaways

  • Trade contributed 18.28%, making it the largest sector in Q2 2025's GDP.
  • Crop production followed with 17.8%, underscoring agriculture’s central role.
  • Oil and gas added just 4.05%, highlighting its shrinking share compared to non-oil sectors.
  • Real estate and telecoms reinforced the growing strength of services in the Nigerian economy.

Nigeria’s economy expanded to ₦51.20 trillion in Q2 2025, with trade and agriculture leading as the top contributors. Trade added ₦9.36 trillion (18.28%), while crop production contributed ₦9.11 trillion (17.8%), together accounting for over one-third of national output. Real estate (₦6.55 trillion, 12.8%) and telecommunications (₦4.71 trillion, 9.2%) showcased the rising dominance of services, driven by urban growth and digital adoption.

In sharp contrast, crude petroleum and natural gas contributed only ₦2.07 trillion (4.05%), underscoring oil’s diminishing role in GDP despite its importance for exports and revenue. Other sectors, such as livestock, construction, food processing, finance, and public administration, collectively added over ₦8 trillion, signalling a broader diversification of the economy.

Source:

National bureau of statistics

Period:

Q2 2025
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Nigeria’s public debt has soared since 2010, with domestic debt up 2,020% and external debt up 1,000% by mid 2025
  • Nigeria’s domestic debt jumped from ₦3.8 trillion in 2010 to ₦80.55 trillion by mid-2025.
  • Foreign debts increased from $4.27 billion in 2010 to $46.98 billion in 2025, reflecting growing reliance on external financing.
  • Debt accumulation surged notably after 2020, coinciding with pandemic spending, naira depreciation, and higher fiscal deficits.
  • The widening gap between revenue and debt service raises questions about Nigeria’s long-term debt sustainability.

Borno records lowest domestic debt in North-East Nigeria at ₦22.3 billion in Q2 2025
  • The six North-Eastern states collectively owe around ₦450 billion in domestic debt as of Q2 2025.
  • Borno State maintains the lowest debt in the region at ₦22.3 billion, showing signs of controlled borrowing amid post-conflict rebuilding.
  • Bauchi State has the highest domestic debt burden of ₦143.6 billion, accounting for about 31% of the region’s total.
  • The top three states, Bauchi, Taraba and Gombe, collectively account for more than two-thirds of the zone’s total subnational debt stock.

In just six months, Nigeria spent over $2.3 billion servicing external debts
  • Nigeria paid $816.3 million to the International Monetary Fund, accounting for over 35% of total external debt service payments.
  • Eurobond payments followed closely, with $687.8 million paid, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on commercial debt instruments.
  • Multilateral lenders like IDA and AfDB collectively received about $463 million, signalling continued exposure to concessional financing.
  • China’s share shrinking: Payments to Chinese lenders (EXIM + CDB) totalled $235.6 million, less than 11% of total outflows, suggesting reduced Chinese debt servicing in H1 2025.

Over 60% of Nigeria’s ₦1.7 trillion domestic debt service in Q2 2025 was spent on Federal Government Bonds
  • FGN bonds dominated: ₦1.07 trillion went to Federal Government Bonds, accounting for about 63% of total domestic debt servicing.
  • Treasury bills followed: Payments on NTBs reached ₦537.9 billion, making up roughly 31% of the total.
  • Sukuk and promissory notes together cost ₦90.8 billion, reflecting Nigeria’s mix of infrastructure and settlement instruments.
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93% of Nigeria's public debt is owed by the Federal Government
  • The Federal Government’s share of total public debt rose from 79.5% in 2019 to 92.6% in 2025.
  • States’ share has more than halved, from 20.5% to 7.4% in six years.
  • Total public debt grew from $83.9 billion to $99.7 billion, peaking at $113.4 billion in 2023.
  • Nigeria’s debt burden is increasingly concentrated at the centre, amplifying federal repayment risks and reducing fiscal independence for states.

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