Trade and agriculture led Nigeria’s ₦51.20 trillion economy in Q2 2025, as oil’s share remained modest

Key Takeaways

  • Trade contributed 18.28%, making it the largest sector in Q2 2025's GDP.
  • Crop production followed with 17.8%, underscoring agriculture’s central role.
  • Oil and gas added just 4.05%, highlighting its shrinking share compared to non-oil sectors.
  • Real estate and telecoms reinforced the growing strength of services in the Nigerian economy.

Nigeria’s economy expanded to ₦51.20 trillion in Q2 2025, with trade and agriculture leading as the top contributors. Trade added ₦9.36 trillion (18.28%), while crop production contributed ₦9.11 trillion (17.8%), together accounting for over one-third of national output. Real estate (₦6.55 trillion, 12.8%) and telecommunications (₦4.71 trillion, 9.2%) showcased the rising dominance of services, driven by urban growth and digital adoption.

In sharp contrast, crude petroleum and natural gas contributed only ₦2.07 trillion (4.05%), underscoring oil’s diminishing role in GDP despite its importance for exports and revenue. Other sectors, such as livestock, construction, food processing, finance, and public administration, collectively added over ₦8 trillion, signalling a broader diversification of the economy.

Source:

National bureau of statistics

Period:

Q2 2025
HTML code to embed chart
Want a bespoke report?
Reach out
Tags
Related Insights

Obasanjo led Nigeria's biggest GDP per capita rise at 268% in 8 years
  • Nigeria’s GDP per capita rose strongly from 1999 to 2014, then reversed.
  • The 2014 peak remains the defining turning point.
  • Obasanjo’s years show the fastest sustained climb from a very low base.
  • Yar’Adua’s short tenure still maintained upward momentum.
  • Jonathan’s period delivered the peak level, not the fastest growth rate.
  • Buhari’s tenure marks the longest clear decline in GDP per capita.
  • Tinubu’s period begins with another sharp fall.

Despite allocating more funds than in 2020, Nigeria's defence budget share falls back to 9% in 2026, matching the 2020 low
  • Nominal spending surged, but inflation and naira depreciation eroded real gains. From ₦921 billion in 2012 to ₦6.57 trillion in 2025, the absolute figure may seem dramatic, but Nigeria's security challenges intensified over the same period.
  • Defence commanded over 21% of the budget in 2013. From 2024 to 2026, that figure has fallen below 14%, with 2026 hitting a historic low of 9.3%.
  • Boko Haram, banditry, and separatist tensions peaked in 2020, resulting in a cut that saw defence's share fall to just 9.2%, the lowest on record at that point.
  • The jump to ₦6.57trn (13.2%) in 2025 marks the sharpest year-on-year absolute increase in the dataset. But 2026 reversed this again, with the rate dropping to 9.3%.

Nigeria recorded a 76% drop in HIV cases over five years
  • The 2019 number revealed the truth — years of underdiagnosis were corrected in a single year when PEPFAR restructured testing entirely.
  • The 76% decline from 2019 to 2024 is one of the most significant HIV reductions in Africa in a single decade.
  • One year of disruption in 2020 erased an entire year of progress, creating a backlog that took until 2022 to clear.
  • With PEPFAR's $1.2 billion pipeline cut, fewer Nigerians are being tested, meaning fewer cases appear on paper while the virus spreads undetected.

Nigeria's insurance sector crossed ₦1.98tn in H1 2025 as every segment grew by at least 25%
  • Life Business was the single largest segment, and its 70.3% jump signals that more Nigerians are thinking seriously about financial protection for their families.
  • Miscellaneous, the smallest segment, posted the biggest growth at 86.7%, suggesting new and unconventional insurance products are gaining serious traction.
  • Aviation & Marine nearly doubled, with 79.9% growth in a sector tied to trade and logistics, reflecting Nigeria's expanding import/export activity and the rising cost of cargo and aircraft risk coverage.
  • Motor (52.5%), Fire (53.3%), and General Accident (49.6%) grew by roughly half, indicating broad-based sector expansion rather than isolated pockets of growth.

Nigeria’s crude oil export value surges over 400% from 2020 to a record ₦55.3tn in 2024
  • Export values have grown over 400%, rising from ₦11.8 trillion in 2013 to a peak of ₦55.3 trillion in 2024, a fivefold increase driven by rising oil prices and a weaker naira.
  • 2015 and 2016 were the hardest years, with export values crashing as low as ₦6.8 trillion in 2015, reflecting the brutal impact of the global oil price collapse on Nigeria's most critical export.
  • The most explosive growth came from 2023 onwards, with values surging past ₦29 trillion in 2023 and peaking at ₦55.3 trillion in 2024, largely driven by the naira depreciation following Nigeria's 2023 foreign exchange reforms.
  • The first nine months of 2025 saw a slower pace than the previous year, with ₦37.7 trillion recorded between Q1 and Q3, lower than the ₦41.5 trillion recorded during the same period in 2024.

Local companies have consistently contributed most of Nigeria’s Company Income Tax payments since 2016
  • Local companies dominated CIT contributions in most years, accounting for over 50% of payments in 9 of 11 periods between 2015 and 2025 (Q1–Q3).
  • Foreign companies briefly closed the gap in 2023, contributing 49%, the closest they have come to matching local firms.p
  • Local companies recorded their strongest share in 2021 at 65%, marking the widest gap between local and foreign contributors.
  • “Other payments” peaked during the pandemic, rising to 17% in 2020 before dropping to 0% from 2022 onward.

POPULAR TOPICS
SIGN UP TO OUR NEWSLETTER
Get periodic updates about the African startup space, access to our reports, among others.
Subscribe Here
Subscription Form

A product of Techpoint Africa. All rights reserved