The top three indebted states (Lagos, Kaduna, and Edo) collectively account for over $2.18B, nearly half of the total $4.80B states' external debt

  • Lagos alone accounts for nearly 25% of all Nigerian states’ external debt, totalling $1.17 billion.
  • The combined debt of Lagos, Kaduna, and Edo is larger than the sum of the debts of the bottom 30 states.
  • States like Yobe, Abuja, and Jigawa each owe less than $25 million externally, indicating minimal foreign exposure.
  • Cross River, Rivers, and Ogun round out the top six debtors, each with external debts around [$190–210] million.
  • Just eleven states owe over $100 million each, while the majority owes less than that threshold.
  • Despite 36 subnational governments, the federal government’s $40.98 billion external debt is over 8x that of all states combined.

External debt across Nigerian states reveals significant financial disparities and fiscal reliance, with just three states—Lagos, Kaduna, and Edo—accounting for over $2.18 billion, nearly half of the total $4.80 billion external debt stock of all 36 states and the FCT as of December 31, 2024. Lagos alone, at $1.17 billion, owes nearly a quarter of the total, and more than double what any other state owes. These figures highlight the disproportionately large borrowing footprints of a few subnational governments compared to others.

The striking debt imbalance tells more than just a financial story—it reveals the extent to which some states rely on external financing, likely for infrastructure, health, education, or economic development projects. Lagos, as Nigeria’s commercial hub, likely incurs such high foreign obligations to fund its urban infrastructure and transportation network. Still, whether these debts translate into tangible economic returns remains a key question for future analysis.

The federal government’s external debt, however, remains significantly larger at $40.98 billion, emphasising that states, though active, hold only a fraction of Nigeria’s total public debt obligations.

Source:

Debt Management Office

Period:

2024
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While Angola's debt service-to-GDP hits 68%, Algeria’s is 0.1%, showing huge variety in debt burdens
  • Angola and Ethiopia account for the highest debt service-to-GDP ratios in Africa, both exceeding 67%.
  • East Africa dominates the high debt-servicing bracket, with five countries among the top ten most burdened.
  • Algeria has the lowest debt service-to-GDP ratio on the continent at just 0.10%.
  • There’s a wide gap between the top and bottom debt service burdens, reflecting divergent fiscal paths across Africa.
  • Low debt servicing doesn’t automatically mean economic strength—it may reflect limited borrowing capacity.

While many other African nations face a high debt burden, Algeria's already low debt keeps falling to a projected 0.09% in 2025
  • Algeria’s debt service per GDP dropped from 0.77% in 2009 to a projected 0.09% in 2025.
  • The country’s debt service per GDP declined at a -11.9% CAGR from 2009–2025.
  • A high of 0.73% occurred in 2012 before the consistent decline resumed.
  • By 2015, the country's debt service fell to 0.27%, showing progress in reduction.
  • The lowest point is forecast for 2025, at 0.09% of GDP.
  • Algeria’s debt burden is among the lowest in Africa, contrasting with the rising trend in many other nations.
  • This low debt service level allows for greater fiscal flexibility in public spending and investment.

Nigeria's debt service per GDP increased from 0.7% in 2015 to 10.2% in 2024, with 2025 forecasted to reach 15.1%
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  • Overall CAGR from 2009 to 2025 is 17.8%.
  • President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure saw the fastest growth (29.1% CAGR).
  • Under President Goodluck Jonathan, growth was slower (6.5% CAGR).
  • President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s term so far shows a 27.6% CAGR.

Angola's debt burden reached a new peak in 2024, with its debt service hitting 68.3% of GDP
  • Debt service in Angola hit 68.3% of GDP in 2024.
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  • Between 2009 and 2025, the debt service ratio grew at a CAGR of 11.2%.
  • The ratio stayed below 15% from 2009 to 2014 before surging to 41.9% in 2016.
  • Angola has faced multiple spikes above 50% since 2019, showing recurring debt strain.
  • The sharp drop to 31.2% in 2022 was short-lived, followed by a steep increase.

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