China topped Nigeria’s import sources with ₦4.66 trillion, while India led the export destinations with ₦2.84 trillion in Q1 2025

  • India is Nigeria’s largest export destination Nigeria exported ₦2.84 trillion worth of goods to India in Q1 2025, driven largely by crude oil.
  • China dominates imports into Nigeria China supplied ₦4.66 trillion worth of goods, far outpacing all other countries. Likely dominated by electronics, machinery, and manufactured goods.
  • The United States appears on both sides. Nigeria exports ₦1.54 trillion to the US and imports ₦1.42 trillion, showing a relatively balanced trade relationship.
  • European countries are major export Partners Netherlands (₦2.30T), France (₦1.44T), and Spain (₦1.44T) are prominent export destinations, indicating strong demand for Nigerian crude oil and other commodities in Europe.
  • UAE barely makes the import list. The UAE closes out the top import list at ₦0.61 trillion, showing relatively lower trade volume compared to others, but still significant enough to be in the top 5.

In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria's total trade value reached a significant milestone of ₦36.03 trillion, reflecting the country’s continued engagement in global commerce. This figure comprises ₦20.60 trillion in exports and ₦15.43 trillion in imports, showcasing a trade surplus of ₦5.17 trillion, a positive indicator of stronger outbound trade compared to inbound. Nigeria's international trade dynamics reflect a strong reliance on commodity exports and imported manufactured goods. The country’s export activity was most heavily concentrated with India, receiving ₦2.84 trillion in goods, mostly attributed to crude oil exports, which continue to underpin Nigeria's trade economy. Following India are the Netherlands, the United States, France, and Spain, which reflect Nigeria’s enduring trade relationships with Western economies, especially in energy.

On the import side, China's dominance is notable, with ₦4.66 trillion in imports flowing into Nigeria. This is nearly three times the volume imported from India (₦1.71T), the second-largest source. China’s position illustrates its role as Nigeria’s primary supplier of machinery, electronics, and industrial goods. Other key import sources include the United States, Netherlands, and UAE, all of which maintain significant commercial ties.

Interestingly, the United States appears on both the top export and import lists, indicating a well-rounded trade engagement, rather than being skewed toward either inflow or outflow. This bilateral balance could be beneficial for both economies and may reflect growing diversification in traded products beyond oil.

While European countries dominate Nigeria’s export destinations, only the Netherlands appears among the top import sources. This might signal that Europe values Nigeria more as a supplier than as a buyer, maintaining a trade surplus.

Source:

NBS

Period:

Q1 2025
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Nigeria imported 10x more from Asia than from Africa in 2025
  • Asia is Nigeria’s top import source in 2025.
  • The highest import value from Asia was recorded in Q1 at ₦8.7 trillion.
  • Imports from Europe surged to ₦8.6 trillion in Q2 but declined to ₦6.6 trillion by Q4.
  • Imports from America showed continuous growth, rising from ₦2.9 trillion in Q1 to ₦6.6 trillion in Q4.
  • Imports from Africa remained below ₦1 trillion across most quarters.

China’s exports to Nigeria increased by 40% in 2025
  • China’s exports to Nigeria increased by 40.4%,
  • China's exports moved from ₦ 14.1 trillion in 2024 to ₦ 19.8 trillion in 2025.
  • Growth was consistent across all four quarters.
  • Quarter 2 saw the highest growth at 80%, jumping from ₦3.0tn to ₦5.4tn.
  • Quarter 4 recorded a modest 4.3% rise.

Nigeria’s export mix stayed oil-heavy in 2025, with crude oil above 75% in all quarters
  • Crude oil dominated Nigeria’s exports in all quarters of 2025
  • Q1 recorded the highest oil dependency at 81.5%.
  • Non-oil exports peaked in Q2 at 24.2%, representing the strongest diversification point in 2025.
  • The oil share dropped to its lowest in Q2 (75.8%), but still remained dominant.

In 2025, Nigeria imported crude oil for the first time in the past decade, accounting for 11% of its total crude oil trade
Key takeaways:
  • Nigeria recorded its first crude oil imports in a decade in 2025, marking a structural shift in trade dynamics.
  • Imports accounted for 11% of total crude oil trade in 2025.
  • Total crude oil trade grew sharply from ₦7 trillion in 2016 to ₦53.2 trillion in 2025, indicating long-term expansion.
  • Exports remain dominant, contributing ₦47.4 trillion in 2025 despite the emergence of imports.
  • 2024 was the peak year for crude oil trade at ₦55.3 trillion, followed by a slight decline in 2025.
  • The 2020 dip of ₦9.4 trillion highlights vulnerability to global shocks, likely tied to oil price and demand disruptions.

Despite allocating more funds than in 2020, Nigeria's defence budget share falls back to 9% in 2026, matching the 2020 low
  • Nominal spending surged, but inflation and naira depreciation eroded real gains. From ₦921 billion in 2012 to ₦6.57 trillion in 2025, the absolute figure may seem dramatic, but Nigeria's security challenges intensified over the same period.
  • Defence commanded over 21% of the budget in 2013. From 2024 to 2026, that figure has fallen below 14%, with 2026 hitting a historic low of 9.3%.
  • Boko Haram, banditry, and separatist tensions peaked in 2020, resulting in a cut that saw defence's share fall to just 9.2%, the lowest on record at that point.
  • The jump to ₦6.57trn (13.2%) in 2025 marks the sharpest year-on-year absolute increase in the dataset. But 2026 reversed this again, with the rate dropping to 9.3%.

Nigeria recorded a 76% drop in HIV cases over five years
  • The 2019 number revealed the truth — years of underdiagnosis were corrected in a single year when PEPFAR restructured testing entirely.
  • The 76% decline from 2019 to 2024 is one of the most significant HIV reductions in Africa in a single decade.
  • One year of disruption in 2020 erased an entire year of progress, creating a backlog that took until 2022 to clear.
  • With PEPFAR's $1.2 billion pipeline cut, fewer Nigerians are being tested, meaning fewer cases appear on paper while the virus spreads undetected.

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