Crude Oil Prices Drop from $79.12 in Dec 2023 to $74.72 in Dec 2024 Amid Market Volatility

  • Crude oil prices peaked at $93.12 in April, marking the highest point of the year before experiencing fluctuations in the following months.
  • A steady decline in the last quarter saw prices drop to $74.72 in December, the lowest recorded price of 2024.
  • The decline in prices from September onward raised concerns about potential revenue shortfalls, impacting government budgets and foreign exchange earnings.
  • Oil prices remained unstable throughout the year, with significant fluctuations driven by geopolitical factors, global demand shifts, and production adjustments.

The crude oil market experienced a turbulent 2024, following a sharp decline from the highs of late 2023. In September 2023, crude oil traded at $98.16, but by December 2023, prices had dropped to $79.12, signalling a downward trend that continued into 2024. The year began with $82.18 in January and saw fluctuations before peaking at $93.12 in April. A steady decline set in from September ($76.05) to December ($74.72), marking the year’s lowest price. The annual average stood at $82.57, reflecting overall volatility.

Source:

Central Bank of Nigeria

Period:

2024
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The average price of kerosene rose by almost 71% between May 2023 and December 2024
Key takeaways:
  • The average kerosene price increased by approximately 70.5%, rising from ₦1,206.1 in May 2023 to ₦2,056.4 in December 2024.
  • Prices witnessed a moderate growth rate of 13% from May to December 2023, while the rate of increase escalated sharply in 2024, with a rise of 50.9% from January to December 2024.
  • A notable acceleration in prices began in July 2024, when the price per litre first surpassed ₦1,700.
  • The average price in December 2024 (₦2,056.4) was 51% greater than the average price in December 2023 (₦1,362.3).
The North Central region of Nigeria recorded the highest average price for kerosene per litre in December 2024, standing at ₦2,278.8
Key Takeaways: 
  • The northern regions of Nigeria experienced higher prices than the southern regions, except for the North East.
  • The North Central region had the highest average kerosene cost, while the South East reported the lowest.
  • There is a significant price difference of about ₦483.7 between the region with the highest price (North Central) and the region with the lowest (South East).
  • Households in the North Central region will likely spend a larger portion of their budget on kerosene than those in the South East region.
Akwa Ibom, Delta, Rivers, and Bayelsa produce nearly 85% of the daily output among Nigeria’s top 10 oil producing states
- Akwa Ibom, Delta, Rivers, and Bayelsa collectively account for nearly 85% of Nigeria’s crude oil production.
- Their impressive output reflects decades of focused investment and advanced production infrastructure in the Niger Delta.
- The disparity between these high-producing states and lower-performing regions like Abia and Imo highlights significant regional imbalances.
- The untapped potential in states with lower outputs presents promising opportunities for strategic development and future growth
Abuja recorded the highest average price of kerosene in Nigeria as of December 2024
Key takeaways:
  • In December 2024, the top five states with the highest average kerosene prices were: Abuja (₦2,950.0), Akwa Ibom (₦2,538.3), Kaduna (₦2,510.6), Cross River (₦2,430.7), and Sokoto (₦2,400.1).
  • Abuja recorded the highest average price of kerosene in December 2024, while Borno state recorded the lowest price.
  • The price of kerosene per litre ranged from ₦1,520.4 to ₦2,950 across Nigerian states in December 2024.
  • The percentage difference in the price of kerosene across Nigeria states in December 2024 is approximately 63.9%.
Petrol prices surged by nearly 1000% in 9 years
  • In February 2016, petrol was at its lowest price of ₦99.80 per litre, marking the last time fuel prices remained below ₦100.
  • By November 2024, petrol prices soared to an all-time high of ₦1,214.17 per litre, reflecting the compounded effects of inflation, currency depreciation, and global oil price volatility.
  • Over the nine-year period, the average petrol price stood at ₦272.65 per litre.
  • Between January 2016 and December 2024, petrol prices increased by ₦1,079.52, a staggering 984.96% rise, emphasising the long-term upward trajectory influenced by economic challenges, subsidy removals, and fluctuating exchange rates.
  • The most volatile period recorded a month-to-month price surge of over 129.23%.
Oil prices dropped 35% in 2020 after COVID-19, with an additional 21% decline in 2023 amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict
In 2020, OPEC's oil prices dropped by 35% as global demand collapsed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Two years of economic recovery followed before Russia, one of the world's largest oil producers and importers, invaded Ukraine in 2022. This invasion triggered global economic instability, resulting in a 21% decline in oil prices the following year.
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