Post-pandemic trade reset lifts China–Africa exports to a record $225bn in 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Exports more than doubled in a decade, with trade rising from $92.27 billion in 2016 to $225 billion in 2025, a 144% increase.
  • The largest single jump occurred between 2020 and 2021, when exports surged by more than $34 billion.
  • From 2021 to 2024, exports climbed every year, reaching $178.91 billion before the latest surge.
  • The increase from $178.91 billion in 2024 to $225 billion in 2025 signals a new growth surge after several years of gradual increases.

Exports from China to Africa have grown in two distinct phases over the past decade. Between 2016 and 2020, expansion was gradual, increasing by just over $20 billion across four years. The trajectory changed sharply in 2021, when export volumes surged significantly, lifting trade to a permanently larger scale.

From 2021 onward, export growth settled into steady annual increases before accelerating again in 2025. The latest value of $225 billion reflects not only continued expansion but also a renewed surge, reinforcing the post-pandemic period as a clear turning point in the long-term growth of China–Africa trade.

Source:

National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Global South Project

Period:

2016 - 2025
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Africa’s merchandise exports to China in 2025
  • Africa exported a record $86.2bn worth of goods to China in 2025.
  • China received about 12.5% of Africa’s total merchandise exports.
  • Annual exports remained below $10bn until 2004, before accelerating sharply.
  • Export values have remained relatively high since 2021 despite earlier downturns.
  • The trade relationship remains heavily commodity-led, with limited manufactured exports.

Africa’s export map changed, but only three economies escaped heavy reliance on one buyer
  • Only 3 of 52 African economies met the export-market diversification test in 2025.
  • Nigeria recorded the largest and most sustained shift, with its top-buyer share falling from 43.1% to 9.9%.
  • Madagascar’s top-market share dropped from 40.0% to 14.9% and has remained below 20% since 2021.
  • Libya narrowly qualified at 19.5%, after remaining above the threshold in 2024.
  • The test measures reduced dependence on one export destination, not greater product diversification.

South Africa accounted for nearly $1 in every $6 Africa earned from merchandise exports in 2025
  • Africa’s merchandise exports reached $689.2 billion in 2025.
  • Exports grew by 9.7%, the fastest rate outside Asia.
  • Africa accounted for just 2.6% of global merchandise exports.
  • South Africa led with $116.4 billion, followed by Nigeria and Egypt.
  • The top 15 economies generated 79.3% of Africa’s exports.

Nigeria's non-oil exports grew faster than oil exports in 2024 and 2025, though oil remained dominant
  • In 2025, non-oil export growth (36%) was 6x higher than oil (6%).
  • In 2024, non-oil exports grew by 189% vs oil’s 108%.
  • Total exports still heavily depend on oil.
  • Export value rose from ₦36 trillion in 2023 to ₦85.1 trillion in 2025.

Nigeria’s export mix stayed oil-heavy in 2025, with crude oil above 75% in all quarters
  • Crude oil dominated Nigeria’s exports in all quarters of 2025
  • Q1 recorded the highest oil dependency at 81.5%.
  • Non-oil exports peaked in Q2 at 24.2%, representing the strongest diversification point in 2025.
  • The oil share dropped to its lowest in Q2 (75.8%), but still remained dominant.

After three years of decline, China-Nigeria export trade hit a new peak of $24.9bn in 2025
  • Export value more than doubled from $9.72 billion in 2016 to $24.91 billion in 2025.
  • Trade rose steadily between 2016 and 2019, then surged sharply in 2021.
  • Exports declined for three consecutive years (2022–2024) after the 2021 peak.
  • 2025 marks the highest export value in the ten-year period.

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