Africa’s export map changed, but only three economies escaped heavy reliance on one buyer

  • Only 3 of 52 African economies met the export-market diversification test in 2025.
  • Nigeria recorded the largest and most sustained shift, with its top-buyer share falling from 43.1% to 9.9%.
  • Madagascar’s top-market share dropped from 40.0% to 14.9% and has remained below 20% since 2021.
  • Libya narrowly qualified at 19.5%, after remaining above the threshold in 2024.
  • The test measures reduced dependence on one export destination, not greater product diversification.

Only 3 of 52 African economies still met this export-market diversification test in 2025: their top export market accounted for at least 30% of exports in 2000, but less than 20% in 2025.

Nigeria recorded the sharpest and most sustained shift. In 2000, the United States accounted for 43.1% of Nigeria’s exports. By 2025, India was the country’s largest export market, but accounted for only 9.9%. Nigeria’s top-buyer share has stayed below 20% every year since 2011.

Madagascar also met the threshold, with its top-market share falling from 40.0% in 2000 to 14.9% in 2025. Its trend was less smooth, but it has stayed below the 20% mark since 2021.

Libya is the borderline case. Italy remained its top export market in both years, but its share fell from 42.3% in 2000 to 19.5% in 2025. That puts Libya just below the threshold in the latest year, after being above 20% as recently as 2024.

Several other economies briefly dropped below the 20% threshold before 2025 but did not sustain it through the latest year. That is why the 2025 list is small, and why Nigeria stands out most clearly.

This measures market diversification, not product diversification: less reliance on one destination, not necessarily a wider mix of exports.

Source:

UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)

Period:

2000-2025
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