What happens if Nigeria's GDP grows at 3.68% yearly?

Have you ever considered how much larger the US GDP is in comparison to Nigeria's? Although it would be difficult to compare Nigeria's GDP to that of the US, let's assume it increases by 3.68% annually. How long would it take the nation's GDP to match that of the US in 2022?

Source:

World Bank

Period:

2022
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Nigeria’s nominal GDP has grown by over 80%, but real GDP has grown by only 6%
  • Real GDP grew from ₦205.1 trillion in 2019 to ₦217.8 trillion in 2024, a modest 6% rise.
  • Nominal GDP jumped from ₦205.1 trillion to ₦372.8 trillion over the same period, an 82% increase.
  • The gap between nominal and real GDP widened sharply after 2021, reaching ₦155 trillion in 2024.
  • Nominal GDP has grown year-on-year, with the steepest jump between 2023 (₦314.0 trillion) and 2024 (₦372.8 trillion).
  • Inflationary pressures have driven nominal gains, masking subdued real economic expansion.
Administrative services surged by 21%, recording the most significant growth in Nigeria's 2024 rebased economy
  • Administrative & support services showed the highest percentage increase at 21.07%.
  • Agriculture is the largest sector by GDP value, at ₦59.31 trillion.
  • Trade is the second largest sector by GDP value, at ₦37.81 trillion.
  • Real estate is the third largest sector by GDP value, at ₦28.96 trillion.
  • Other services experienced negative growth, decreasing by -1.17%.
  • Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply recorded the lowest positive growth at 0.56%.
Sudan faced the most severe economic contraction among African nations in 2024, with a real GDP decline of -13.49%
  • Sudan recorded the steepest GDP decline in Africa in 2024 at -13.49%.
  • Botswana’s economy contracted by -2.99%, the second-worst on the continent.
  • Libya was the only other country in the bottom 10 with negative growth at -0.61%.
  • South Africa, with 0.58% growth, continues to struggle with low economic momentum.
  • Sao Tome & Principe and Equatorial Guinea both recorded growth below 1%.
  • Despite being Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria’s 3.43% growth places it closer to underperforming countries than to the continent’s fastest risers.
While Rwanda saw the highest growth in 2024's real GDP, West African nations showed great performance, as 6 nations made the top 10 list
  • Rwanda recorded the highest GDP growth in Africa in 2024 at 8.89%.
  • Six out of the top ten fastest-growing economies in Africa are from West Africa.
  • Niger and Benin posted impressive growth rates of 8.42% and 7.45% respectively.
  • Nigeria, one of Africa’s biggest economies, had a growth rate of 3.43%, below countries like Senegal and Cabo Verde.
On average, Nigeria’s NBS publishes Q1 GDP reports 53 days after the quarter ends. But in 2025, it's been 86 days—and still no release
  • Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) usually releases Q1 GDP data 53 days after the quarter ends.
  • As of June 25, 2025, the Q1 2025 figures are 86 days overdue—that’s 33 days longer than average.
  • The delay coincides with a GDP rebasing exercise, updating the base year to 2019.
  • Q1 GDP reports have typically come out in May for the past eight years—until now.
Burundi and Mozambique consistently rank lowest in African worker productivity since 1991
  • The same countries—Burundi, Malawi, DR Congo, Mozambique, Niger, Liberia, Madagascar, Central African Republic, Chad, and Ethiopia—consistently occupy the bottom ranks over the years.
  • These countries remain far below the continent's average, often with GDP per person employed under $5,000 even in recent years.
  • Progress is marginal: while some, like Ethiopia and Mozambique, show slow growth, many fluctuate or even regress across periods.
  • Structural economic weaknesses, conflict, and low industrialisation seem to persist across the bottom group.
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