Nigeria’s exports remain oil-dominated, but non-oil exports are steadily rising—reaching up to 18% in early 2025

  • Oil exports continued to dominate, averaging over 88% of total exports in 2024 and remaining above 81% in the first half of 2025.
  • Non-oil exports rose gradually, from a low of 6.9% (February 2024) to a high of 18.1% (January 2025).
  • Peaks in non-oil export contributions occurred in July 2024 (16.4%) and January–April 2025 (13–18%), indicating progress toward diversification.
  • Total exports remained heavily oil-driven, though sustained double-digit non-oil shares in late 2024 and early 2025 show a slow shift.

Nigeria’s exports remain heavily reliant on oil, but non-oil exports are gaining traction. In 2024, non-oil contributions ranged from 6.9% in February to 16.4% in July, with double-digit shares maintained in the second half of the year. Early 2025 saw non-oil shares reach 18.1% in January and stay above 11% through June, highlighting gradual diversification beyond oil.

Source:

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

Period:

January 2024-June 2025
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In 2025, Nigeria imported crude oil for the first time in the past decade, accounting for 11% of its total crude oil trade
Key takeaways:
  • Nigeria recorded its first crude oil imports in a decade in 2025, marking a structural shift in trade dynamics.
  • Imports accounted for 11% of total crude oil trade in 2025.
  • Total crude oil trade grew sharply from ₦7 trillion in 2016 to ₦53.2 trillion in 2025, indicating long-term expansion.
  • Exports remain dominant, contributing ₦47.4 trillion in 2025 despite the emergence of imports.
  • 2024 was the peak year for crude oil trade at ₦55.3 trillion, followed by a slight decline in 2025.
  • The 2020 dip of ₦9.4 trillion highlights vulnerability to global shocks, likely tied to oil price and demand disruptions.
Nigeria's petrol prices have surged 40% since the US/Israel-Iran War
  • Nigeria recorded the largest petrol price increase in Africa, rising 39.5% between February 23 and March 16, 2026.
  • Egypt experienced a 14.3% increase, making it one of the largest price jumps in Africa.
  • Nigeria’s increase is more than double that of Egypt.
  • A number of African countries recorded very small price changes, including Tanzania (2.7%), Morocco (2.1%), and South Africa (1%).
  • A few countries actually saw declines in fuel prices, including Madagascar (-3.9%) and Zambia (-4.6%).
  • During the period, petrol prices remained unchanged in 28 African countries.
Nigeria exported ₦47tn in crude, yet spent ₦45tn importing finished goods and refined petroleum
  • Crude oil alone accounts for 55.7% of all exports. Remove it and Nigeria runs a ₦26.7tn trade deficit. The entire surplus rests on one commodity.
  • Nigeria imports ₦31.97tn in manufactured goods but exports only ₦2.50tn, a 12-to-1 ratio that reflects near-total dependence on foreign industrial output.
  • Nigeria exports ₦25.3tn in petroleum products yet imports ₦13.3tn of refined petroleum. Africa's top oil producer still can't fully process its own crude.
  • Despite Nigeria's vast farmland, agri-exports (₦5.07tn) barely exceed agri-imports (₦4.76tn). The sector earns almost nothing net.
Dangote Refinery’s fuel price hits an all-time-high, rising from ₦699 to ₦1,175 in four months
Fuel prices from Dangote Refinery reached an all-time high of ₦1,175 per litre in March 2026. The lowest recorded price in the period was ₦699 per litre in December 2025, showing a wide price swing. The jump from ₦699 to ₦1,175 happened in roughly four months.
  • Prices earlier in the timeline hovered mostly between ₦820 and ₦987 during late 2024 and much of 2025.
  • The December 2025 price cut was aimed at making locally refined fuel more competitive against imports.
  • After the price drop, fuel costs began rising again in early 2026, reaching ₦995 by early March before climbing further.
  • Global geopolitical tensions affecting oil markets contributed to the upward pressure on prices.
Malacca and Hormuz handle about 24% and 22% of global oil supply, respectively
  • The Strait of Malacca is the world’s most important oil chokepoint, carrying about 24–25% of global oil supply in recent years.
  • The Strait of Hormuz moves around 20–23% of global oil supply, making it the second-largest energy transit chokepoint.
  • The Cape of Good Hope carries about 9–10% of global oil flows, and its share tends to increase when other chokepoints face disruptions.
  • The Bab el-Mandeb saw a sharp drop in oil flow share from about 9% in 2023 to around 4% in 2024, reflecting security concerns affecting shipping in the Red Sea corridor.
  • Oil transported through the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline system dropped significantly after 2023, falling from about 8.6% to below 5%, showing how quickly routes shift during geopolitical tensions.
  • The Strait of Malacca’s share has remained consistently high and stable, indicating its structural importance to Asian energy demand.
  • Alternative routes like the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa are longer but strategically crucial, especially when Middle Eastern chokepoints become unstable.
Nigeria’s crude oil export value surges over 400% from 2020 to a record ₦55.3tn in 2024
  • Export values have grown over 400%, rising from ₦11.8 trillion in 2013 to a peak of ₦55.3 trillion in 2024, a fivefold increase driven by rising oil prices and a weaker naira.
  • 2015 and 2016 were the hardest years, with export values crashing as low as ₦6.8 trillion in 2015, reflecting the brutal impact of the global oil price collapse on Nigeria's most critical export.
  • The most explosive growth came from 2023 onwards, with values surging past ₦29 trillion in 2023 and peaking at ₦55.3 trillion in 2024, largely driven by the naira depreciation following Nigeria's 2023 foreign exchange reforms.
  • The first nine months of 2025 saw a slower pace than the previous year, with ₦37.7 trillion recorded between Q1 and Q3, lower than the ₦41.5 trillion recorded during the same period in 2024.
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