Nigeria’s foreign trade hit ₦38 trillion in Q2 2025, driven by strong export growth

Key Takeaways

  • Total trade in Q2 2025 was valued at ₦38.04tn.
  • Imports accounted for ₦15.29tn, led by manufactured goods and petroleum products.
  • Exports reached ₦22.75tn, boosted mainly by crude oil.
  • The trade gap favoured Nigeria with a surplus of ₦7.46tn.

In Q2 2025, Nigeria’s trade performance remained strong, with total trade climbing to ₦38.04tn. Exports outpaced imports, reaching ₦22.75tn against ₦15.29tn in imports. The result was a ₦7.46tn trade surplus, reflecting Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil exports, which made up more than half of total export earnings. While manufactured goods drove import demand, Nigeria’s positive trade balance underscores the country’s continued dependence on oil to sustain foreign exchange inflows.

Source:

National Bureau of Statistics

Period:

Q2 2025
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Nigeria imported 10x more from Asia than from Africa in 2025
  • Asia is Nigeria’s top import source in 2025.
  • The highest import value from Asia was recorded in Q1 at ₦8.7 trillion.
  • Imports from Europe surged to ₦8.6 trillion in Q2 but declined to ₦6.6 trillion by Q4.
  • Imports from America showed continuous growth, rising from ₦2.9 trillion in Q1 to ₦6.6 trillion in Q4.
  • Imports from Africa remained below ₦1 trillion across most quarters.

China’s exports to Nigeria increased by 40% in 2025
  • China’s exports to Nigeria increased by 40.4%,
  • China's exports moved from ₦ 14.1 trillion in 2024 to ₦ 19.8 trillion in 2025.
  • Growth was consistent across all four quarters.
  • Quarter 2 saw the highest growth at 80%, jumping from ₦3.0tn to ₦5.4tn.
  • Quarter 4 recorded a modest 4.3% rise.

Nigeria’s export mix stayed oil-heavy in 2025, with crude oil above 75% in all quarters
  • Crude oil dominated Nigeria’s exports in all quarters of 2025
  • Q1 recorded the highest oil dependency at 81.5%.
  • Non-oil exports peaked in Q2 at 24.2%, representing the strongest diversification point in 2025.
  • The oil share dropped to its lowest in Q2 (75.8%), but still remained dominant.

In 2025, Nigeria imported crude oil for the first time in the past decade, accounting for 11% of its total crude oil trade
Key takeaways:
  • Nigeria recorded its first crude oil imports in a decade in 2025, marking a structural shift in trade dynamics.
  • Imports accounted for 11% of total crude oil trade in 2025.
  • Total crude oil trade grew sharply from ₦7 trillion in 2016 to ₦53.2 trillion in 2025, indicating long-term expansion.
  • Exports remain dominant, contributing ₦47.4 trillion in 2025 despite the emergence of imports.
  • 2024 was the peak year for crude oil trade at ₦55.3 trillion, followed by a slight decline in 2025.
  • The 2020 dip of ₦9.4 trillion highlights vulnerability to global shocks, likely tied to oil price and demand disruptions.

Despite allocating more funds than in 2020, Nigeria's defence budget share falls back to 9% in 2026, matching the 2020 low
  • Nominal spending surged, but inflation and naira depreciation eroded real gains. From ₦921 billion in 2012 to ₦6.57 trillion in 2025, the absolute figure may seem dramatic, but Nigeria's security challenges intensified over the same period.
  • Defence commanded over 21% of the budget in 2013. From 2024 to 2026, that figure has fallen below 14%, with 2026 hitting a historic low of 9.3%.
  • Boko Haram, banditry, and separatist tensions peaked in 2020, resulting in a cut that saw defence's share fall to just 9.2%, the lowest on record at that point.
  • The jump to ₦6.57trn (13.2%) in 2025 marks the sharpest year-on-year absolute increase in the dataset. But 2026 reversed this again, with the rate dropping to 9.3%.

Nigeria recorded a 76% drop in HIV cases over five years
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  • One year of disruption in 2020 erased an entire year of progress, creating a backlog that took until 2022 to clear.
  • With PEPFAR's $1.2 billion pipeline cut, fewer Nigerians are being tested, meaning fewer cases appear on paper while the virus spreads undetected.

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