Nigeria Energy Report 2026

• Crude oil theft is largely solved, but production growth hasn't followed.
• Nigeria runs its power sector at one-third of installed capacity.
• Nearly 35% of all electricity distributed generates no revenue.
• Distributed solar has crossed the viability threshold without subsidy.
• Nigeria's energy transition cannot be publicly financed.
• FX risk is the central underwriting question for every energy investor.
• IOC exits have transferred ownership, but operational competence remains unproven.
• The Dangote Refinery fundamentally changes Nigeria's import narrative.
• The national grid collapsed 12 times in 2024 alone.
• CNG is gaining real traction as a transport fuel after subsidy removal.
• Electric vehicle penetration remains negligible at under 1%.
• Over 40% of electricity customers are still unmetered.
• Nigeria's vast gas reserves remain largely stranded by infrastructure bottlenecks.

• Foreword
• Preface
• Key Figures
• Key Findings
• Executive Summary
• Macroeconomic & Policy Context
  • Macroeconomic Fundamentals
    • GDP outlook, Inflation, Fiscal Pressures
    • FX Liquidity and Energy-import Dependence
    • Impact on Energy Pricing and Investment
  • Regulatory & Policy Landscape
    • Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) Implementation
    • Electricity Act 2023: State-level Markets and Decentralisation
    • New Tariffs, Subsidy Removal Status, and Regulatory Reforms
    • Carbon and Climate-related Policies

1. Oil & Gas Sector

• Upstream
  • Production Capacity for Crude Oil & Condensates
  • Security, Pipeline Integrity, and Crude Theft Analysis
  • International Oil Company (IOC) Divestments, Local Content, and Asset Transitions
• Midstream
  • Gas Infrastructure Projects and Milestones
• Downstream
  • Refining capacity
  • Petroleum Product Pricing and Deregulation

2. Power & Electricity Sector

• Generation
  • Capacity mix projection (gas, hydro, solar, wind, embedded generation)
  • New IPP pipeline and state-level generation projects
• Transmission
  • Grid Stability and Forecast
  • TCN Capacity Expansion and Ongoing Constraints
  • Impact of Decentralised Markets on Transmission Use
• Distribution
  • Tariff Reforms
  • Loss Reduction (ATC&C), Metering Expansion
• Off-grid & Distributed Energy
  • Solar Home Systems Market Depth
  • Financing Innovations and Local Manufacturing Progress
  • Progress in Local Manufacturing

3. Renewable Energy

• Policy Push for Renewables
  • National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) Updates
  • Green Bonds and Climate Financing Inflows
• Market Trends
  • Utility-scale vs Distributed Solar
  • Wind and Biomass Prospects
• Corporate Decarbonisation
  • Energy-intensive Industries Shifting to Captive Renewables

4. Investment Landscape & Capital Flows

• Domestic & Foreign Investment Trends

5. Demand Outlook & Market Segments

• Industrial Demand
  • Gas-to-power for Industries
  • Energy Efficiency Adoption
• Commercial & Residential Demand
  • Urbanisation and Demand Growth
• Transport Energy
  • CNG Adoption
  • Electromobility (EV Charging Pilots, Fleet Electrification)
• Strategic Recommendations
  • For Policymakers
  • For Operators (Oil & Gas, Power, Renewables)
  • For Investors & Financiers
  • For Corporates and Large-scale Consumers
• Conclusion
  • What Will Define Success in Nigeria's Energy Market
• References
• Glossary